April Drop Dead Date

[iamthatis]

On the other hand, maybe this time the small banks will be cannibalized by the big ones, allowing for a more centralized and consolidated control for the Reset? If that's the case, I wonder what will happen to all the small credit unions - anyone got any clues?

About the first point, and maybe the second, too - if I understand this correctly, it's looking like rural banks (and credit unions) would most likely be abandoned, not cannibalized.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1636543532654632962

 

[Heaalih]

April is not so far. Concerning SVB, Pierre Jovanovic (quotidien.com) posted :

When Professor Chevallier stands in front of the blackboard with his piece of chalk and explains the financial Apocalypse A+B, it gives this analysis:

"Let's take a simplified example: When the U.S. Treasury borrows money on the financial markets, it issues Treasury Bonds at say 10% for X years. So when an investor lends it 100 dollars, he will receive 10 dollars in interest after one year.

Now these Treasury bills are financial products that can be bought and sold on the markets at any time. Investors who buy these notes will therefore pay $100 (to receive $10 in interest after one year) but they can also sell these securities.

If demand is low, the price of these bonds will then fall, for example to 50 dollars, in which case the interest will still be 10 dollars, which makes a real income of 10 dollars for 50 dollars, i.e. a gain (a real rate) of... 20 % !

Conversely, if the demand for these Bonds is very high, the price will rise, for example to 150 dollars, with interest still at 10 dollars, which makes a gain (a real rate) of 10 dollars on 150 dollars, or 6.7%.

Conclusion: bond prices do indeed vary in the opposite direction of their yields.

But this problem can be approached in another way: the Fed raises the prime rate, which causes all other rates to rise. Therefore, prices mathematically fall!

And this is what has been happening since March 16, 2022, causing losses of about... 30% on average on the value of these American Treasury bills. The problem is that the market for these bills is about... 18,000 billion dollars!".

That is 18 trillion.

Which also means that "losses of around 30% on 18,000 billion, that's... 6,000 billion dollars of dry losses for their owners! And who are the big losers? The big investors, first of all banks, pension funds, investment funds, etc. Normally, these investors are companies that have to publish their accounts by valuing their assets at market price, at their fair value.

They should therefore have recorded huge losses, but most of them do not respect the accounting rules (IFRS) in force, except for a few very rare exceptions such as the Swiss National Bank, SNB, which recorded a loss of... 166 billion Swiss francs (end of September 2022) for equity of 222 billion francs in March 2021, losses due mainly to capital losses on bond investments!

So the Fed's leaders having raised their base rate from 0% to almost 5% have condemned most American banks to lose 30% on the value of the bonds they hold, which makes a real global loss of the order of... 6,000 billion dollars".

And here we come to the makeup of bank balance sheets:

"Few banks actually record these losses in their accounts on these BoTs, except for those that are forced to sell them in a hurry, and that's what happened with Silicon Valley Bank, which was recently forced to increase its equity by more than $2 billion to make up for its losses on its same BoTs. Short on cash, it found itself in trouble, which means it was actually on the verge of bankruptcy."

And here are the horsemen of the Apocalypse of counterfeit money: "This is the first banking domino that has just fallen. The others will follow, which is the beginning of the end of the proper functioning of the American banking system. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank will lead to the failure of a certain number of its clients, who are Silicon Valley start-ups, and then by contagion, to the failure of other banks and their clients.

The whole American banking system will collapse in the coming weeks, as well as many companies, which will lead to a crisis much larger than those that have occurred since the post-war period" read Chevallier.biz.

The bad news?

The banks have faked their balance sheets, signed and countersigned by a whole army of accountants, chartered accountants and auditors. The complicity goes from the bottom of the ladder (accountant) to the top.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Quand le professeur Chevallier est devant le tableau avec son bout de craie et vous explique l'Apocalypse financière A+B, cela donne cette analyse:

"Prenons un exemple simplifié: Quand le Trésor américain emprunte de l'argent sur les marchés financiers, il émet des Bons du Trésor par exemple à 10% pour X années. Donc lorsqu'un investisseur lui prête 100 dollars, il va recevoir 10 dollars d'intérêts après une année.

Or ces BdT sont des produits financiers qui peuvent se vendre et donc s'acheter sur les marchés à tout moment. Les investisseurs qui achètent ces BdT vont donc payer 100 dollars (pour percevoir 10 dollars d'intérêts au bout d'un an) mais ils peuvent aussi vendre ces titres.

Si la demande est faible les prix de ces bons vont alors baisser, par exemple à 50 dollars, dans ce cas, les intérêts seront toujours de 10 dollars, ce qui fait un revenu réel de 10 dollars pour 50 dollars, soit un gain (un taux réel) de... 20 % !

Inversement, si la demande sur ces BdT est très forte, les prix vont monter, par exemple à 150 dollars, avec des intérêts toujours de 10 dollars, ce qui fait un gain (un taux réel) de 10 dollars sur 150 dollars, soit 6,7%.

Conclusion : les prix des obligations varient bien en sens inverse de leurs rendements.

Or ce problème peut être abordé autrement: la Fed augmente le taux de base, ce qui entraîne tous les autres taux à la hausse. Donc, les prix baissent mathématiquement !

Et c'est ce qui se passe depuis le 16 mars 2022, ce qui provoque des pertes de l'ordre de... 30% en moyenne sur la valeur de ces BdT américains. Le problème est que le marché de ces bons est de l'ordre de... 18.000 milliards de dollars !".

Soit 18 trilliards.

Ce qui veut dire aussi que "des pertes de l'ordre de 30% sur 18.000 milliards, ça fait... 6.000 milliards de dollars de pertes sèches pour leurs possesseurs! Et qui sont les grands perdants? Les gros investisseurs, d'abord des banques, des fonds de pension, des fonds de placement, etc. Normalement, ces investisseurs sont des entreprises qui doivent publier leurs comptes en évaluant leurs actifs au prix du marché, à leur juste valeur (fair value).

Ils auraient donc dû comptabiliser des pertes colossales, mais la plupart d'entre eux ne respectent pas les règles comptables (IFRS) en vigueur, sauf quelques très rares exceptions comme la Banque Nationale Suisse, la BNS qui a enregistré une perte de... 166 milliards de francs suisses (fin septembre 2022) pour des capitaux propres de 222 milliards de francs en mars 2021, pertes dues principalement sur les moins-values sur des placements en obligations !

Donc les dirigeants de la Fed ayant fait passer leur taux de base de 0% à presque 5% ont condamné la plupart des banques américaines à perdre 30% sur la valeur des obligations qu'elles détiennent, ce qui fait une perte globale réelle de l'ordre de... 6.000 milliards de dollars".

Et là on arrive au maquillage des bilans bancaires:

"Rares sont les banques qui enregistrent réellement ces pertes dans leurs comptes sur ces BdT, sauf celles qui sont obligées d'en vendre en catastrophe et c'est ce qui s'est passé avec la Silicon Valley Bank qui a été obligée d'augmenter récemment ses capitaux propres de plus de 2 milliards de dollars pour combler ses pertes sur ses mêmes BdT. A court de liquidités, elle s'est trouvée en difficulté, ce qui signifie qu'elle était en réalité au bord de la faillite".

Et voici les cavaliers de l'Apocalypse de la fausse monnaie: "C'est le premier domino bancaire qui vient de tomber. Les autres suivront, ce qui est donc le début de la fin du bon fonctionnement du système bancaire américain. La faillite de Silicon Valley Bank va entraîner celle d'un certain nombre de ses clients qui sont des start up de la Silicon Valley, puis par contagion, celle d'autres banques et de leurs clients.

Tout le système bancaire américain va donc s'écrouler dans les semaines à venir ainsi que beaucoup d'entreprises, ce qui engendrera à une crise beaucoup plus importante que celles qui se sont produites depuis l'après-guerre" lire ici Chevallier.biz.

La mauvaise nouvelle ?

Les banques ont bien bidonné leurs bilans, signés et contre-signés par toute une armée de comptables, expert-comptables et commissaires aux comptes. La complicité va du bas de l'échelle (comptable) jusqu'au sommet.

 

[truepositive]

The obvious long shot is to 'finally convince all of us' that banks are bad and we need CBDC's (as if those are fundamentally different), but when and how exactly is the question. To be continued, without a doubt.

 

[Zzartemis]

The obvious long shot is to 'finally convince all of us' that banks are bad and we need CBDC's (as if those are fundamentally different), but when and how exactly is the question. To be continued, without a doubt.

Wasn't the SVB, out of the norm, lending for high risk investments?

 

[Ryan]

Wasn't the SVB, out of the norm, lending for high risk investments?

Nope. Improper/incompetent management of large-scale US Treasury bond holdings.

 

[Mike]

Nope. Improper/incompetent management of large-scale US Treasury bond holdings.

And looks like the practices and problems are pretty widespread. The Wall Street Journal originated the reporting on this late last week.

186 Banks Found to Have Similar Risks as Silicon Valley Bank

In a recent study, economists are warning of 186 US banks at risk due to similar vulnerabilities as Silicon Valley Bank.

watcher.guru

A recent study by economists identified 186 banks at risk. These banks face issues similar to that which caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. SIVB collapsed earlier this week due to the bank’s assets being diminished by increasing interest rates. This led to concerned customers withdrawing their uninsured deposits.

During the Federal Reserve’s swift rate-hike campaign, the economists evaluated individual U.S. banks. They assessed asset books and market value losses. Assets such as Treasury notes and mortgage loans can decrease in value. This happens when new bonds offer higher rates. The economists also analyzed the banks’ funding percentages. They focused on funding derived from uninsured depositors, those with accounts holding over $250,000.


Their findings suggest a potential problem. If half of these uninsured depositors were to withdraw funds rapidly from any of these 186 U.S. banks, even insured depositors might face impairments. This is due to insufficient assets available for all depositors. In such cases, intervention from the FDIC could become necessary.

On top of the above you issues that are going to grow from the Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) for residential real estate, Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) for commercial and retail real estate, and car loans in the US. Basically, the housing market nationwide is correcting severely due to the Fed raising rates very fast that has and will impact MBS, retail businesses are having a lot of problems with very big vacancies in commercial real estate following on from the Covid lockdowns that will impact CMBS, and something like 16% of all car loans in the US have a payment that is $1000 per month or more (which is a crazy amount for a car), which this and other things are leading watchers of such things to predict many car loans will default. All three combine at an increasing rate as we move forward with the problems mentioned by Ryan and in the article above.

Then you have the Treasury Secretary Yellen saying that they are going to select who will be made whole at what bank after indicating and floating earlier that all deposits will be safe. That was to keep bank runs from happening... but then they walk that back later (in the video above), which I'd imagine is going to keep people fearful and taking actions to protect themselves.

At first, I thought that things would settle down after another week or two and then we may have problems later in the Fall after things deteriorate more and the various sectors above have problems. But now this budding financial crisis may have more and larger legs in the here and now.

 

[Ryan]

At first, I thought that things would settle down after another week or two and then we may have problems later in the Fall after things deteriorate more and the various sectors above have problems. But now this budding financial crisis may have more and larger legs in the here and now.

Trading chatter I'm seeing is predicting a short-term rally until the Fed cut interest rates, followed by at least a six-month downturn in all markets and a renewed phase of 'quantitative easing' (ie. money printing) during that time as we find the market low, then the next bull market run. However, I think that the downturn could be severe enough that the markets won't recover as expected and we get a real SHTF economic situation. If so, we'd better hope the BRICS have got some cards up their sleeve to preserve at least a minimal semblance of a functioning global financial system.

 

[Amor]

April is not so far. Concerning SVB, Pierre Jovanovic (quotidien.com) posted :

There is one thing I still dont get. In google search they say there is 50billion dollars in circulation and 2100 billions total usd globally in circulation which physically speaking, we can say is not existent or exists in a way only on the computer. So basically the financial system is already shaky because what would happen if all the people would like to take out their cash from the banks at the same time? Not to speak of what would happen if the big investor would start moving their asset away from all the banks. Avarage Joes would be broke because the banks basically dont have any way to fill the liquidity gap which basically is at 2050 billions. In order to do that the Feds should print more money, but if they are going to do that there is going to be more than 2050 billions in total circulation. If I understand correctly it would drive the value of dollar even further down. In this context we could say money is already worthless because of this huge liquidity gap and the value of the money seems to be more dependable on holding people hostage to the idea of having money. The only solution here for the financial elite to maintain control and not to have whole thing collapse is to do something with that credit money. As It has been mentioned before most probably they will push for CBDC. Europe, US, Russia, China, Indija and other have already their own CBDCs. EU has official plans to launch their own CBDC as an experiment already in October 2023.

Digital euro
(There is a pdf with a timeline)

 

[Mike]

I'm not sure there is a plan behind all of these actions as some are now proposing (see the last comment below about CBDCs). Maybe we can chalk it up to psychopaths in power who are inept and incompetent to handle the situation and those that are not psychopaths have been negatively selected for toeing the political and ideological line, such as Yellen. Guess we may get to see what happens when a pathocracy in the US and also in the Western world is faced with a significant crisis that requires people, but they are nowhere to be found, that want to and can actually fix things and care about the outcome for the masses and in general the future?

This expounds on part of my last post:

Janet Yellen Just Poured Lighter Fluid On Every Small Bank In America

What in the world was she thinking? When a bailout was hastily arranged for uninsured depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the implication was that the same thing would be done for uninsured

theeconomiccollapseblog.com

What in the world was she thinking? When a bailout was hastily arranged for uninsured depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the implication was that the same thing would be done for uninsured depositors at any other banks that failed. But now U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is telling us that is not actually what will happen. She just admitted that depositors at a failed bank will only be protected if officials determine that a “failure to protect uninsured depositors would create systemic risk and significant economic and financial consequences”. So that means that depositors at big banks are likely to be protected and that depositors at small banks are much less likely to be protected. In other words, Janet Yellen just poured lighter fluid on every small bank in America.

Why would anyone keep more than $250,000 in a small bank at this point when there is a very real risk of losing all of the uninsured money if the bank suddenly fails?

Wealthy people are not stupid. They are going to move billions of dollars from small banks to large banks in the days ahead, and that is going to cause a tsunami of stress on those small banks.

Does Janet Yellen even understand what she just did?

A video with commentary on Yellen's testimony. It would seem that this crisis is going to have legs here and now when people realize exactly what was said.

And a comment from a person, Bill Holter, I have followed for some time.

Welcome To Bill Holter

billholter.com

“Does she cause a mass exodus (otherwise known as a bank run) on the smaller banks? Is this the plan to consolidate all the small banks into the larger ones prior to issuance of the CBDC?”