War in Israel-Palestine - October 2023

[youlik]

Dmitry Belik, a member of the Russian parliament's International Affairs Committee, called the recent Iranian attack on Israel "A Beautiful Theatrical Production".

For some reason, it seems that way to me too. It is quite expensive, but still a theatrical production without the desire to cause serious damage.
Next, the Iranians declare the possibility of striking 1,000 ballistic missiles. What prevented them from doing it right away?

Iran's Supreme National Security Council has decided to strike Iraq with more than 1,000 ballistic missiles
Iran's Supreme National Security Council has decided to increase the scale of strikes against Israel tenfold in the event of an escalation of the conflict by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to Major General Mohammad Baqeri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian armed forces, in case of further escalation, Iran is ready to strike with more than a thousand ballistic missiles.

This statement was made against the background of recent events, when Iran, in response to Israeli attacks, fired more than 300 missiles and drones towards Israeli territory. The incident has caused significant tension in the region and concern of the international community.

General Bakeri stressed that in any case, Iran will defend its interests and respond to any military threats to the full extent of its capabilities.

"If Israel continues its aggressive actions, our response will be much larger than today's strikes," he said in an interview with state television.

Experts, in turn, believe that such a large-scale strike is unlikely to be possible, since this means that Iran will have to spend a third of its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles, however, they urge Israel to behave with restraint.

Высший совет национальной безопасности Ирана принял решение ударить по Израилю более чем 1000 баллистических ракет

The only thing that is not completely clear to me is the situation with hypersonic missiles. The data on their use are ambiguous and it is impossible to draw clear conclusions. So far, it seems to me that there has been a passing technology check. No wonder all such missiles were aimed at desert areas, so that even when they reached their goals, on the one hand, it could be said that the targets were hit, on the other hand, the real damage was minimal.

Satellite images of strikes on the Israeli Air Force base have appeared
During yesterday's Iranian attack, the Nevatim airbase in Israel suffered damage, but according to information from the press service of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the damage turned out to be minor. IDF representatives reported that thanks to the effective work of the Israeli Air Force and the support of strategic allies, it was possible to shoot down all unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles aimed at Israel even outside the country.

Information about minor material damage to the infrastructure is also confirmed by satellite images available to Avia journalists.pro, on which three impact points are visible. Earlier, Russian expert Shurygin claimed 7 accurate hits of hypersonic missiles at an airbase in the Negev Desert, but this information was not confirmed.

Nevertheless, several ballistic missiles were able to overcome the air defense system and exploded in the immediate vicinity of the runway of the Nevatim airbase. Despite this, the damage to the base's infrastructure was minimal, and after a short period, the Air Force engineering services carried out the necessary repairs.

Появились спутниковые снимки ударов по авиабазе ВВС Израиля

Iran's missile strike damaged Israeli air bases — ABC News

At least nine Iranian missiles overcame Israel's air defense system and damaged two air bases, ABC News reported.

As a result of a massive strike last weekend, five ballistic missiles struck the Nevatim airbase, damaging a C-130 transport aircraft, a runway and storage facilities, according to American media.

Four more missiles struck an airbase in the Negev Desert.

At the same time, the US and Israeli authorities officially claim that the Iranian attack could not cause significant harm.

https://rusvesna.su/news/1713164307

Spoiler: Russian spelling

Мне почему то тоже так кажется. Это довольно дорогостоящая, но всё же театральная постановка без желания нанести серьезный ущерб.
Дальше иранцы заявляют о возможности нанесения удара 1000 баллистических ракет. Что им мешало сделать это сразу? Единственное, что не совсем ясно для меня, это ситуация с гиперзвуковыми ракетами. Данные по их применению неоднозначны и четких выводов сделать не получается. Пока мне кажется, что тут имело место попутная проверка технологии. Не зря все такие ракеты были направлены на пустынные районы, чтобы даже при достижении ими целей можно было с одной стороны сказать, что поставленные цели поражены, с другой стороны реальный ущерб был минимален.

 

[Joe]

What prevented them from doing it right away?

nuclear annihilation maybe?

 

[youlik]

nuclear annihilation maybe?

Perhaps, although they are not Japanese and not in a broken state, and if taken seriously, they are more able to bomb Israel to the Stone Age than vice versa. Of course, it's hard to understand how they think.

Spoiler: Russian spelling

Возможно, хотя они и не японцы и не в разбитом состоянии и если подходить серьезно они более в состоянии разбомбить израиль в каменный век, чем наоборот. Конечно трудно понять как они думают.

 

[Joe]

A few interesting points from this article on Ynet by Ronen Bergman, one of Israel's best informed journalists, who quotes a source with knowledge of Israeli discussions on Iran

זה הזמן שנתניהו צריך באמת ללמוד מצ'רצ'יל איך להגיב

זו הפעם הראשונה שישראל מותקפת מצד מדינה ריבונית מאז מלחמת המפרץ ב־1991, אבל כאז כן עתה - יש גם סיבה לנשום עמוק, לשתות מים אם צריך, ולעצור לרגע. נתניהו צריך לאמץ את התפיסה הצ'רצ'יליאנית שלפיה גם בשעות הקשות ביותר חייבים לנהוג באחריות, בשיקול דעת - לא לשקוע לתהום צלמוות, או לנסוק לאופוריית מלחמה...

www.ynet.co.il

Meanwhile, that's not the wind there. A source very familiar with the marathon meetings that took place this week in a series of secret discussion rooms, above and below ground, says that "if they had filmed it and broadcast it on YouTube, today there would be four million people in Israel trying to find a way to escape from here."

Tonight, the Iranian response to the Israeli assassination of the senior general in Damascus was launched. And if Israel responds, it will respond to strategic targets in the heart of Tehran and perhaps in other cities. It's binary - zero or one. The war cabinet, and not only Netanyahu and Gallant, believed last night that if the attack is from Iranian territory, Israel must respond because, as one of the sources says, "It is impossible for Israel to attack a target in Syria, and Iran in response will attack from Iranian territory to Israeli territory, and Israel will not respond."

According to publications, Israel did not coordinate the assassination operation in Damascus with the United States. The IDF Operations Division informed them about the operation only at the same time as the bombs landed on the building. The Americans exploded with anger.

They are very worried and feel that Israel has led them into exactly the situation they were trying to avoid. On the one hand, they don't want to get involved in a war with Iran, which the United States, after responding with force to an attack on American targets and calming the unrest, thought it had succeeded in preventing. On the other hand - the Americans received clear signs that make them fear that an unequivocal non-mobilization on Israel's side will also be interpreted negatively in other countries such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Basically, the US was not informed in advance about the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus (because they would have said "no") and that attack was at least in part designed by Israel to provoke the Iranian response that would then force the US and "allies" to back up Israel.

That's how these things work behind the scenes. And yeah, if Israelis knew the truth of it they'd be heading for the airport and getting on one-way flights.

 

[youlik]

Basically, the US was not informed in advance about the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus (because they would have said "no") and that attack was at least in part designed by Israel to provoke the Iranian response that would then force the US and "allies" to back up Israel.

In my opinion, it looks pretty plausible. Iran's decorative response fits very neatly into such a picture, and if so, then once again the degree of adventurism is striking. A billion to the wind in one night and the result is zero. Americans are also handsome in this. The volumes are much larger there, but the timing is also longer.

Spoiler: Russian spelling

На мой взгляд выглядит довольно правдоподобно. В такую картину очень аккуратно вписывается декоративный ответ Ирана и если это так, то в очередной раз поразительна степень авантюризма. Миллиард на ветер за одну ночь и результата ноль. Американцы тоже красавцы в этом. Там объемы сильно больше, но и сроки подлиннее.

 

[Windmill knight]

The strikes, while symbolic and theatrical, were more of a 'win' for Iran and the Axis of Resistance than for Israel and the empire. The main thing the Iranians are happy with appears to be the precedent this sets for the next time(s) the Israelis strike/drone/assassinate anything Iranian, anywhere: rather than more words of condemnation, and maybe targeting of Israeli assets outside Israel (like they did in Erbil, northern Iraq, following the terrorist attack at Soleimani's commemoration in January), they'll just hit Israeli military infrastructure directly - in Israel.

That threshold has been crossed, and now this dynamic of strike and counter-strike could go on for years, as we've seen in the former Ukraine, but the $64,000 question is, will the Israeli regime eventually accept defeat and a 'new reality', as Kiev is surely destined to, or, 'on its way down', will it 'go Samson' on as much of the region (or even the world) as it can?

I was thinking the same thing. If things stay as they are and Israel doesn't escalate any longer (for now), then an important taboo has been broken, and that's that a nation-state can attack Israel directly and... nothing happens. We can understand that much of it was measured theatrics, but in the minds of the people of the Middle East and the world, and pehaps for some leaders observing from the sidelines, Iran crossed a red line that hadn't been crossed before and got away with it. The problem is still, as you say, what's Israel gonig to do about it. And knowing the pathological traits of its leaders, I wouldn't trust that they'll just sit and accept the current score.

 

[Joe]

A billion to the wind in one night and the result is zero.

But what price do those types put on population control? Because there's a big element of that in all of this. Perhaps the main element at a higher level.

 

[WhiteMountain]

I get it, I've followed Hal too and found he's often a legit source of info. But as I've discovered, all the best disinfo peeps have 90% good info to lure you in, and then they poison-pill you with that nefarious 10% bad juju. And: in my very last post on this very thread, I provided a link and a shout-out to Western Rifle Shooters Association. Just after I did that I read some more posts on that same site by people who absolutely believe that Islamic people are apes who plan to infest the rest of the world and take us over from the inside by out-procreating us because that's what their religion professes.

Yeah I'm not gonna go down that mind warp path, thanx. The Islamic people I've met in real life were just like me: loving beings who simply wanted peace. So, I continue to learn, too.

I do think that WRSA site has interesting viewpoints worth considering, as does Hal Turner. But the way I approach them now is as lanes of information to pursue for more truth, not AS the truth in and of itself. And also: there are NO other places on the internet where I would feel completely safe sharing what I just did in this post, than HERE. This remains the ONLY place on the current internet where I have tried to share information where I have not been judged for the political "tilt" of my information, instead of the TRUTH of it. And I learn more from the honest reactions and replies to my posts here than anywhere else, because of same.

Yeah I generally view Hal and just about every site the same way. I don't take anything as truth. I go for information from as many sources as possible, and evaluate myself whether credible based on underlying motives, bias, and totality of the evidence.

 

[Windmill knight]

Basically, the US was not informed in advance about the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus (because they would have said "no") and that attack was at least in part designed by Israel to provoke the Iranian response that would then force the US and "allies" to back up Israel.

Exactly, Israel is a 'loose cannon' even for its greatest ally. Often, analysts think of Israel as being the US's 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' in the Middle East, and to some extent that's true, but the problem with that idea is that it assumes that the US is the master and Israel is the vassal, and quite often they behave in ways that suggest it's the other way around. Would the US throw Israel 'under the bus' and turn its back on it in a serious way? If it got in a hot war with Iran, would the US not intervene in Israel's defense? Unlikely. Would Israel turn its back on the US if it suited it? Absolutely. I mean, there was 9/11 - obviously the US authorities know what really happened there, yet Israel got away with it, no problem. And the only reason I can think of that explains this sad state of affairs is the influence of the Israel lobby, plus that several US political figures are surely blackmailed Epstein-style on a personal level.

So again, Iran and the US can be 'ok' with the recent exchange of blows, and the US can tell Israel it doesn't want any further escalations, at least for now. And Israel might even pretend its ok with it. But will it really comply? It can't be trusted any more than we can trust a known psychopath to keep its word.

 

[Joe]

Another angle: Biden said US forces "helped Israel take down nearly all" drones and missiles launched by Iran on Sunday. This sets a precedent of the US helping Israel in apparent direct confrontation with Iran. Something the Biden admin did not want (at least officially), but Israel did.

Israel is a 'loose cannon' even for its greatest ally.

Yep, and they know it, but can do little about it. A predictable fate for such a sordid relationship.

 

[axj]

Would the US throw Israel 'under the bus' and turn its back on it in a serious way? If it got in a hot war with Iran, would the US not intervene in Israel's defense? Unlikely.

Considering that all three presidential candidates (and even "rebels" like Tulsi Gabbard) are completely pro-Israel despite the genocide in Gaza, I would say it's close to impossible. Unless the public proclamations are insincere and they are waiting for the right moment to "throw Israel under the bus".

 

[Don Cesar]

I was thinking the same thing. If things stay as they are and Israel doesn't escalate any longer (for now), then an important taboo has been broken, and that's that a nation-state can attack Israel directly and... nothing happens.

I think the last time it was Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War with the famous SCUD...

 

[Adobe]

Israel Says Readying 'Imminent' Attack On Iran As Airlines Cancel Flights To Region​

by Tyler Durden
Monday, Apr 15, 2024

Summary:​

• Middle East braces for Israeli 'retaliation' attack on Iran after Israel War Cabinet meets
• 
  
• Israeli Air Force says it has completed 'preparation' and that an attack is 'imminent'
• 
  
• US officials tell WSJ they believe Israel will launch an anti-Iran operation today
• 
  
• IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi: Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel “will be met with a response.”
• 
  
• Netanyahu orders military: draw up a list of targets
• 
  
• Several major airlines canceling flights to Tel Aviv and whole region.
• 
  
• State Dept spox: “commitment to Israel’s security is sacrosanct”.
• 
  
• G7 working on measures against Iran as China, Russia signal weekend attack won't hurt relations with Tehran
• 
  
• European allies urge Israel against military response
• 
  
• Tehran warns that it's ready to hit back harder.

"Update(1329ET): It appears things are moving fast, via Israel's Channel 12 broadcaster, following the earlier conclusion of Israel's War Cabinet meeting:"

THE ISRAELI AIR FORCE HAS COMPLETED ITS PREPARATION FOR AN IMMINENT ATTACK AGAINST IRAN

"The Times of Israel top headline has switched to: War cabinet decides to hit Iran back hard, hopes it won’t spark regional war"

"A host of airlines have canceled flights to the region, including the following:"

Israel Says Readying 'Imminent' Attack On Iran As Airlines Cancel Flights To Region | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[WhiteMountain]

I think the last time it was Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War with the famous SCUD...

Well that's the thing with escalation, if every attack needs to be responded to uphold "deterrence" you eventually end up in a full blown war, potentially with mushrooms clouds going up on every side (and I think Iran has had access to nukes for at least 2 decades, they just pretend otherwise for good reason). Iran understands that, which is the reason they have put up with Israel killing their people all over the world, and they deliberately were restrained in their attacks this weekend - most of those rockets and drones were probably decoys to overwhelm air defenses. US generals certainly understand that, which is the reason there are forces within the US and their allies trying to put the leash in Netanyahu. The Israelis are the bat shit insane people that most of the world always thought the Iranians were. And if Israel has to "respond" then Iran is going to have to "respond" given their statements the other night. This does not end well.

But if you are in Iran's shoes think about this. You have morons in Israel who have shown they have this obsession with destroying Iran's nuclear infrastructure. They also have nukes and have acted in a way no sane person would react. Every missile that is incoming now you have to assume could have a nuclear warhead. So what do you do? Rely on your air defenses to take them out, or do you do what the Russians or Americans would do if they saw even one ICBM headed towards their territory from the other side? Iran has to at least consider launching EVERYTHING including their nukes because the Israeli's might be nuking their facilities with the incoming missiles. Even a conventional strike could seriously degrade their capability to respond. Iran almost has to be at a launch on warning status now given Israel's insanity unless saner heads broker something on the back channels, or they get a guarantee from Russia or China that is they are nuked Russia or China will make sure Israel pays and does not get away with it.

Hopefully SOMEONE in Netanyahu's demented cabinet points this out and they put their pride away for a bit understanding that is the cost of turning the Vienna Convention into a piece of worthless toilet paper.

 

[Liliea]

A summary of some points of Pepe Escobar's analysis. To highlight, he celebrates the staging made by Iran and sees it as an "elegant" military strategy very purposely made to to achieve results in terms of deterrence and leadership.

How Iran’s ‘strategic patience’ switched to serious deterrence​

-The Russian
side keeps in contact with Iranian partners on the situation in the Middle East after the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Ryabkov added,

-Strait of Hormuz
That was an eminently elegant manoeuvre – reminding the collective west of Tehran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz, a fact immeasurably more dangerous to the whole western economic house of cards than any limited strike on their “aircraft carrier” in West Asia. That did happen anyway.

-The Iranian
targeted key Israeli military sites such as the Nevatim and Ramon airbases in the Negev and an intel center in the occupied Golan Heights – the three centers used by Tel Aviv in its strike on Iran’s Damascus consulate.

This was a highly choreographed show. Multiple early warning signs gifted Tel Aviv with plenty of time to profit from US intel and evacuate fighter jets and personnel, which was duly followed by a plethora of US military radars coordinating the defense strategy.

It was American firepower that smashed the bulk of what may have been a swarm of 185 Shahed-136 drones – using everything from ship-mounted air defense to fighter jets. The rest was shot down over Jordan by The Little King’s military – the Arab street will never forget his treachery – and then by dozens of Israeli jets.

The whole show had the budget of a mega blockbuster. For Israel – without even counting the price of US, UK, and Israeli jets – just the multi-layered interception system set it back at least $1.35 billion, according to an Israeli official. Iranian military sources tally the cost of their drone and missile salvos at only $35 million – 2.5 percent of Tel Aviv’s expenditure – made with full indigenous technology.

-Conclusion
Were the biblical psychopaths to engage in a real Hot War against Iran, there’s no chance in hell Tel Aviv can intercept hundreds of Iranian missiles – the state-of-the-art ones excluded from the current show – without an early warning mechanism spread over several days. Without the Pentagon’s umbrella of weaponry and funds, Israeli defense is unsustainable.

That could permanently end the area as an oil-producing region and astronomically raise the oil price to levels that will crash the world financial structure. It is conceivable that the United States banking system could similarly collapse if the oil price rises to $900 a barrel should Middle East oil be cut off or destroyed.

It’s no wonder that the Biden combo, days before the Iranian response, was frantically begging Beijing, Riyadh, and Ankara, among others, to hold Tehran back. The Iranians might have even agreed – had the UN Security Council imposed a permanent ceasefire in Gaza to calm the regional storm. Washington was mute.

- Mohammad Bagheri, chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, went straight to the point:

We have conveyed a message to America through the Swiss Embassy that American bases will become a military target if they are used in future aggressive actions of the Zionist regime. We will consider this as aggression and will act accordingly.

How Iran’s ‘strategic patience’ switched to serious deterrence

Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Israel were not conducted alone. Strategic partners Russia and China have Tehran’s back, and their role in West Asia’s conflict will only grow if the US doesn’t keep Israel in check.

thecradle.co