Thinking, Fast And Slow

shellycheval

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Laura
I have observed many individuals who do not seem to have a real "system 2" at all. Everything that goes through their alleged "conscious mind" is little more than programmed thought loops put there by their familial and social upbringing and environment. Such people seem to live in a constant state of "splitting" where everything is always black or white. They think and talk in cliches and nothing seems to be able to break through this.
As the years go by, there appears to be more and more young people in the college classroom with this type of "brain lock" or limitation--lack of system 2 thinking. Their responses are formulaic and nothing seems to stir them out of their comfort zone, apathy, or challenge their black and white, locked, belief systems. Indeed it is near impossible to get them to understand that they are full of belief systems/ideologies--acceptance of ideas without evidence, and that it is an important skill to develop critical analytical thinking skills.

At least in a class of twenty or so students there are usually at least 2-3 students who look out at me with "lively eyes" and appear to be thinking on multiple levels. Most of the others, I think, have had their higher cognitive processes underdeveloped, atrophied, and have become passive "robots" depending on technology, cell phones etc. to know what to "think." Some of them sometimes seemed to be "salvageable" if you can find a topic that has some emotional hook for them--then they seem to wake up somewhat.
shellycheval
 

Psalehesost

The Living Force
Laura said:
I have observed many individuals who do not seem to have a real "system 2" at all. Everything that goes through their alleged "conscious mind" is little more than programmed thought loops put there by their familial and social upbringing and environment. Such people seem to live in a constant state of "splitting" where everything is always black or white. They think and talk in cliches and nothing seems to be able to break through this.
Apart from characteropathy through brain injury, and imprinting that puts a strangehold on higher cognitive processes, I thought of one other thing with regard to this.

By now we know the impact gluten and dairy can have on thinking, this having been discussed and researched. I remember reading (don't know where the post is) that the inflammation caused reduces blood flow to the neocortex. As such, it would reduce the functioning of System 2. People react in different ways and with differing severity, but here might be a further key to the dumbing down of many - in those whose brains are most impacted, higher brain circuits are literally shut off as a consequence of what they eat. Then, the emotional part of their brain is left to run their life.
 

lilies

Dagobah Resident
Luck management

Google's story, what factors contributed to success and how much talent was there and how luck played a role.

Arriving to page 196 this whole phenomenon made me think:
I intentionally told this tale blandly, but you get the idea: there is a very
good story here. Fleshed out in more detail, the story could give you the
sense that you understand what made Google succeed; it would also
make you feel that you have learned a valuable general lesson about what
makes businesses succeed. Unfortunately, there is good reason to believe
that your sense of understanding and learning from the Google story is
largely illusory. The ultimate test of an explanation is whether it would have
made the event predictable in advance. No story of Google’s unlikely
success will meet that test, because no story can include the myriad of
events that would have caused a different outcome. The human mind does
not deal well with nonevents. The fact that many of the important events that
did occur involve choices further tempts you to exaggerate the role of skill
and underestimate the part that luck played in the outcome. Because every
critical decision turned out well, the record suggests almost flawless
prescience—but bad luck could have disrupted any one of the successful
steps. The halo effect adds the final touches, lending an aura of invincibility
to the heroes of the story.
Like watching a skilled
Kahneman gives a considerable weight to luck and "unseen forces" [my words] in his explanations about the performance of golfer's, athletes' and companies that the success / failure ratio naturally balances toward the mean.

Terms of the Work, the three forces and the esoteric pendulum came to my mind. These are natural processes and are okay.

However regarding luck, what produces luck, what drives luck, when does luck appear, especially in Google's case and similar success stories that turned out to have an enormous effect on the life of humanity I couldn't help, but think about this:

Session 941022
Q: (L) At one point in a previous transmission it was stated that the Lizard beings altered the human race after a battle for their own "feeding" purposes. Could you clarify this?
A: It would not be possible for these beings to completely control your existence. If it were you would not be able to do the things your race has done. There has been interference by the Lizard beings in the physical structure of the human beings for their own benefit. Remember what we told you before. They have been interfering with the time cycle experienced on this plane, for quite some time as you measure it. For 74 thousand years they have been interfering in a backwards and forwards time reference manner in order to set up circumstances that they perceive to be beneficial for them in the measure of time that you would consider to be forward, that is, in the future. They have been going backwards and forwards in time to do this. They are suspended in the time cycle as they do this. So what they perceive as being your equivalent of one hour could be as long as 74 thousand years.
Q: (L) So they haven't been here for 300 thousand years?
A: They originally set up circumstances for their benefit 309 thousand years ago, however, they have been using the particular bracketed period of the 74 thousand year period alter things in all the various ways mentioned earlier.
It's as if luck and strange accidents sketch out a large God's hand reaching into the Laboratory Glovebox to make the necessary modifications for the Grand Experiment to continue the way that pleases the Unseen Controllers .
 

lilies

Dagobah Resident
Finally finished. Contestant for the most boring book I ever read. Compared to this Ponerology was an exciting page-turner. Maybe Kahneman did an excellent job to make these subjects interesting, judging from the sources he cites.

Toward the end of the reading I observed an interesting effect: a feeling of rising above the agonizing boredom surrounding these statistical topics and became hungry for something more.
 

Buddy

The Living Force
lilies said:
Finally finished. Contestant for the most boring book I ever read. Compared to this Ponerology was an exciting page-turner. Maybe Kahneman did an excellent job to make these subjects interesting, judging from the sources he cites.

Toward the end of the reading I observed an interesting effect: a feeling of rising above the agonizing boredom surrounding these statistical topics and became hungry for something more.
Kahneman and Tversky repeatedly made the mistake of challenging Gerd Gigerenzer's work. In answering that challenge in order to set the record straight, Gerd was forced to point out how legitimacy is gained by some psychological studies that create the problems they find. Here is just one of his papers that address that issue:

Gigerenzer, Gerd. "On Narrow Norms and Vague Heuristics: A Reply to Kahneman and Tversky." Psychological Review 103 (1996): 592-96.
_http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/GG_On%20Narrow_1996.pdf
 

Laura

Administrator
Administrator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
That's a nice little video that introduces the main concepts and gives entertaining examples!
 

happyliza

The Living Force
I don't know whether anyone else has come across this yet, but I have just watched a Ted Talk that happened to be sent to me on Facebook. It turns out that it is a very humorous, yet serious example of the use of Algorithms. Funnily enough it is about how this Jewish lady overcame dating sites and used her own algorithms to keep emotions out of the picture - intuition too, as Daniel Kahnemann recommends.

I am sure she has based her method on this book!

I am not looking at dating sites! But would be an interesting experiment if FOTCM forum could come up with a method of using such algorithms to cast an accurate net to help those like-minded people find us that have not yet managed to do so before TSHTF. There are many people joining us now so perhaps many people have also been searching but not found the right lighthouse yet? Could it be possible to use algorithms as a Lighthouse project?

It certainly sounds STO to me....n'est pas?

This lady certainly went about her search the right way and loves crunching probabilities so perhaps she may be able to give us a few pointers? She is a consultant and the video proves her success!

Anyway enjoy the video - it certainly gives another dimension to the examples in the book.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/tedtalks/amy-webb-ted-online-dating_b_5460048.html
 

edgitarra

Jedi Council Member
happyliza said:
I am sure she has based her method on this book!

I am not looking at dating sites! But would be an interesting experiment if FOTCM forum could come up with a method of using such algorithms to cast an accurate net to help those like-minded people find us that have not yet managed to do so before TSHTF. There are many people joining us now so perhaps many people have also been searching but not found the right lighthouse yet? Could it be possible to use algorithms as a Lighthouse project?
I think that could be worked on the SEO(search engine optimization).
Wiki:
Search engine optimization (SEO) is the process of affecting the visibility of a website or a web page in a search engine's "natural" or un-paid ("organic") search results. In general, the earlier (or higher ranked on the search results page), and more frequently a site appears in the search results list, the more visitors it will receive from the search engine's users. SEO may target different kinds of search, including image search, local search, video search, academic search,[1] news search and industry-specific vertical search engines.
 
If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long will it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets?
I stumbled upon this "riddle", in the first post of the thread; I would like to solve it by myself and understand...

I would like to ask you if, in this case, "one machine produces one widget", or are the 5 widgets the general output of the 5 machine's work.

Thank you!
 

obyvatel

The Living Force
know_yourself said:
If it takes 5 machines 5 minutes to make 5 widgets, how long will it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets?
I stumbled upon this "riddle", in the first post of the thread; I would like to solve it by myself and understand...

I would like to ask you if, in this case, "one machine produces one widget", or are the 5 widgets the general output of the 5 machine's work.

Thank you!
We are free to assume either possibility since it is not explicitly mentioned in the riddle which is true. You can solve it with either possibility and see if the answer is the same.
 

curious_richard

Jedi Master
If it takes 9 months for 9 women to make 9 babies, how long would it take 100 women to make 100 babies?

How many women would be needed to make 100 babies in one month?

This kind of question and answer is actually useful in business planning. Some things can not be done quicker no matter how many people you throw at it. And it is a fact that with too many people, the work goes slower. Always. There is always a best number of workers for a task, and it is usually better to have fewer than more.
 

Keit

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
I would like to share with you a very interesting and insightful article, and equally useful lecture on the topic of "recognizing and managing cognitive errors". The big catch is, that both the article and the video are intended for veterinary students and practitioners. But I still think that it could be useful for others too, if they would simply substitute "making diagnosis" with "making decisions".

Basically, the authors of the article (and one of them is speaking in the video) took ideas presented in Daniel Kahneman's work, and applied them to veterinary medicine, particularly the art of making a proper diagnosis. What's good about the article, that it gives concrete examples to each bias and cognitive error, and not only medical ones, but also those that general public can understand. And there are quotes by Sherlock Holmes! ;)

Anyways, maybe someone will find it interesting.


https://youtu.be/k3SOhe3nSV4
 

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