Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 23_2023

ALL QUIET. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 12:01 UTC on March 22 from Region 3257 (S28E40).
https://twitter.com/x/status/1638709454261583872

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3256 AR3257, AR3259, AR3260, AR3261 and new region AR3262

AR3251, AR3258 are gone

The total number of sunspots has increased to 81 (21 of these are grouped into 6 y active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All regions have now stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 11:12 UTC on March 22. Maximum planetary index Kp4
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters say that G2-class (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are possible on March 24th when solar wind flowing from a large hole in the sun's atmosphere is expected to reach Earth. During such storms, auroras have been seen in the USA as far south as, e.g., New York and Idaho. SpaceWeather.com​
Click to expand...

Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg

● Current Conditions at 04:30 UTC on March 23

▪︎ Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 447.1 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7.14 p/cm3 (low density)
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.1% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 23:20 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 81 (SN 70 March 22)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 24_2023

Contrary to what happens in the Earth and its seismic activity (and social unrest, see below) Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Only B events from unnumbered sunspots.

chrome_screenshot_1679628656867.png
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639083893490950144

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3256 AR3257, AR3259, AR3260, AR3262
AR3261 is gone

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 73 (23 of these are grouped into 5 y active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All sunspots have simple, stable magnetic fields disinclined to explode. Strong solar flares are unlikely.

● Auroral Activity

Here is the action. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to strong storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 00:08 UTC on March 23
Solar wind flowing from a large coronal hole hit the planet and a crack opened in the magnetic field. The solar wind poured through the hole to fuel a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm.
coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

These are the geomagnetic storms values measured by NOAA.

● Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 08:36 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 12:34 UTC
● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
threshold Reached: 14:23 UTC
● Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
threshold Reached: 14:46 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 17:22 UTC
● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
threshold Reached: 19:42 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 21:33 UTC
● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
threshold Reached: 21:46 UTC
● Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
threshold Reached: 23:54 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 00:14 UTC
● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
threshold Reached: 00:25 UTC
● Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7)
threshold Reached: 01:55 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 03:17 UTC
● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6)
threshold Reached: 03:23 UTC
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639081373028974592
SURPRISE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: The forecast did not call for this. During the early hours of March 23rd, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field, and stayed open for more than 8 hours. Solar wind poured through the gap to fuel a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm. SpaceWeather.com
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1639003088148209664

Aurora Oval
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639087133490118658

Some disinformation media tell their readers that the G2 storm is very dangerous and will impact the planet. This is obviously done to get clicks, likes and traffic to their websites.

● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on March 24

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm G2 in progress
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 6
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 430.u km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 14.23 p/cm3 (low density)
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -4.3% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: B8 at 21:48 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 73 (SN 81 March 23)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

I wonder if the human-cosmic connection is playing a role here as well. It seems to be a flare-up in the protests in France.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1638933182249857024

Human behavior, solar storms and homicides

Results: Our study revealed that lagged Kp NOAA index as a parameter of solar-driven geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) was the most important predictor to explain homicide rates in all three countries. Our results showed that over half the variance in homicide rates of all three countries could be attributed to GMD, not so by weather variables. We also predicted homicide rates peaking for 2025 and 2026 during the current 25th solar cycle, suggesting the current solar cycle could prove to be one of the most intense in a century, which would signal a concomitant increase in homicide rates.

Conclusions: Our study suggests GMD may be involved in shaping human behavior and may help public and medical authorities prepare for eventual surges in homicides as the 25th solar cycle may induce stronger GMD.

osf.io

Human behavior, solar storms and homicides

Hosted on the Open Science Framework
osf.io
 
Puma said:
● Current Conditions at 04:00 UTC on March 24

▪︎ Geomagnetic storm G2 in progress
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 6
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 430.u km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 14.23 p/cm3 (low density)
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -4.3% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: B8 at 21:48 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 73 (SN 81 March 23)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
Click to expand...
Seems to be an update
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639120280223383552
National Weather Service Raw Text Product
819
WOXX15 KWNP 240421
ALTK08

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08
Serial Number: 26
Issue Time: 2023 Mar 24 0416 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2023 Mar 24 0404 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

# Issued by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Recent messages, data, and help at Space Weather Alerts Page Has Changed | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
# Send questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639123568184401921
 
STEVE was also captured last night, from #Bozeman, #Montana 🇺🇸 STEVE (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement) is similar to aurora, but is not, it appears as a ribbon of purple and green light in the sky and is caused by ribbons of hot plasma (+3000 °C) flowing ..... through the Earth's magnetosphere at speeds in excess of 6 km/s (13,000 mph). These ribbons appear during strong storms. This phenomenon had not been scientifically investigated or described until late 2016.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639224681583587336
 
Puma said:
The first time he reported a Kp 8 😂

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639122419561684992
View attachment 72636

It will be interesting to see the human-cosmic connection in the next few hours. With all those brains affected by the severe solar storm.
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✨Residents of Moscow will get a chance to see the Northern Lights

A strong magnetic storm will cause this phenomenon in the metropolitan latitudes this weekend.

From TG channel, subscription required💁‍♂️

But weather forecast most probably will not allow to see that scenery, because of clouds and rain.
 
Puma, thanks for the reference. But in Russia even with vpn twitter does not load(( but i did not have twitter account initially, may be the reason in it.
 
Antony said:
Puma, thanks for the reference. But in Russia even with vpn twitter does not load(( but i did not have twitter account initially, may be the reason in it.
Click to expand...

These are his comments

The most incredible purple colors I've ever seen in the aurora EVER!
Click to expand...
20230324_104151.jpg
An incredible aurora explosion (one of many, actually) took place tonight in Fairbanks, Alaska. It was truly something out of this world. It's 5 am and I haven't slept, but stay tuned for more photos and timelapse in the morning - I shot almost 800 gb of photos and video :)
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Witnessed literally the most insane aurora of my life tonight in Fairbanks. This was unreal.
Click to expand...

This reminded me of the Cs comment about the weakness of the magnetic field.

Laura said:
Q: (L) Well, I was just reading that the Earth's magnetic shield has dropped even lower, and it's causing problems with satellites. Is that going to be a big issue in the days to come?

A: Oh indeed. Best laid plans fail?

Q: (L) So in other words, the powers that be that are running the show aren't really as smart as they think they are...

A: Exactly.

Q: (L) They never counted on their satellites getting fried.

(Pierre) And other electronic equipment through which they monitor, control, and influence populations. It's a failing of the electronic control system.

A: Level playing field eventually. Just wait for the current to begin to flow!
Click to expand...
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 25_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 13:40 UTC on March 24 from Region 3259 (S21W05)
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639464557838991362

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3256 AR3257, AR3258 AR3259, AR3260, AR3262 AR3264
hmi200.jpg

The total number of sunspots has increased to 108 (38 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 95% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. All sunspots have simple, stable magnetic fields disinclined to explode. Strong solar flares are unlikely.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at minor to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 11:14 UTC on March 24

These are the geomagnetic storms values measured by NOAA in the last 24 hrs

● Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8)
threshold reached: 04:04 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 06:17 UTC
● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) threshold reached: 06:44 UTC
● Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7) threshold reached: 08:58 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 20:04 UTC
● The geomagnetic storm subsided around 21:00 UTC with active geomagnetic conditions Kp4 were reached.

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Forecasters did not see this one coming. On March 23-24, auroras spread into the United States as far south as New Mexico (+32.8N) during a severe (category G4) geomagnetic storm--the most intense in nearly 6 years. The cause of the storm is still unclear; it may have been the ripple effect of a near-miss CME on March 23rd.
This remarkable and surprising storm began on March 23rd when magnetic fields in the space around Earth suddenly shifted. In the jargon of space weather forecasting "BsubZ tipped south." South-pointing magnetic fields can open a crack in Earth's magnetosphere and, indeed, that's what happened. Earth's "shields were down" for almost 24 hours, allowing solar wind to penetrate and the storm to build to category G4. SpaceWeather.com
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639321933735919623

Aurora Oval
aurora-map.jpg
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639363462618034176
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639353339929583616
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639252265600180224

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on March 25

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 490.1 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 8.13 p/cm3 (low density)
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -5.2% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 00:57 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 108 (SN 73 March 24)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
Puma said:
The geomagnetic field has been at minor to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 11:14 UTC on March 24

These are the geomagnetic storms values measured by NOAA in the last 24 hrs

● Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8)
threshold reached: 04:04 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 06:17 UTC
● Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) threshold reached: 06:44 UTC
● Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7) threshold reached: 08:58 UTC
● Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) threshold reached: 20:04 UTC
● The geomagnetic storm subsided around 21:00 UTC with active geomagnetic conditions Kp4 were reached.
Click to expand...
This is quite interesting. It seems like several conditions - coronal holes, minor CMEs and seasonal timing - combined to produce this intense storm, which was seen as far south as on a flight from LA to Phoenix! From EarthSky.org:

EarthSky.org said:

Sun activity for March 21, 2023: Equinoxes and aurora season​

Sun activity is low. But the March equinox arrived at 21:24 UTC (4:24 p.m. CDT) yesterday. So it’s aurora season! For over a century, scientists have noted an increase in auroras around the time of the March and September equinoxes. Modern scientists most often describe it as the Russell-McPherron effect, a physical connection between the geometry of Earth’s magnetic field and the magnetic field carried to Earth from the sun by the solar wind. And indeed we’ve had some nice geomagnetic activity over the past week (see image above). And we had auroras last night from Europe to Alaska [..]
Click to expand...
More on the Russell-McPherron effect:

Journal of Geophysical Research said:

Seasonal and diurnal variation of geomagnetic activity: Russell-McPherron effect during different IMF polarity and/or extreme solar wind conditions​

H. Zhao, Q.-G. Zong
First published: 29 November 2012
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JA017845
Citations: 39

Abstract​

[1] The Russell-McPherron (R-M) effect is one of the most prevailing hypotheses accounting for semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity. To validate the R-M effect and investigate the difference of geomagnetic activity variation under different interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity and during extreme solar wind conditions (interplanetary shock), we have analyzed 42 years interplanetary magnetic field and geomagnetic indices data and 1270 SSC (storm sudden commencement) events from the year 1968 to 2010 by defining the R-M effect with positive/negative IMF polarity (IMF away/toward the Sun). The results obtained in this study have shown that the response of geomagnetic activity to the R-M effect with positive/negative IMF polarity are rather profound: the geomagnetic activity is much more intense around fall equinox when the direction of IMF is away the Sun, while much more intense around spring equinox when the direction of IMF is toward the Sun. The seasonal and diurnal variation of geomagnetic activity after SSCs can be attributed to both R-M effect and the equinoctial hypothesis; the R-M effect explains most part of variance of southward IMF, while the equinoctial hypothesis explains similar variance of ring current injection and geomagnetic indices as the R-M effect. However, the R-M effect with positive/negative IMF polarity explains the difference between SSCs with positive/negative IMF By accurately, while the equinoctial hypothesis cannot explain such difference at the spring and fall equinoxes. Thus, the R-M effect with positive/negative IMF polarity is more reasonable to explain seasonal and diurnal variation of geomagnetic activity under extreme solar wind conditions.

Key Points​

  • IMF polarity is very important for semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity
  • Semiannual variation after SSCs is due to R-M effect and equinoctial hypothesis
  • R-M effect under different IMF polarity explains more variation after SSCs
Click to expand...
 
Dr. Tamitha Skov talks about the 'Stealthy Solar Storm' here:
A Dark Coronal Hole & Stealthy Solar Storm Combo-Pack: Space Weather News 23 March 2023

It's not that stealthy in retrospective it seems.

The "culprit" for this storm is an eruption from Mar 20 on the S hemisphere. Many have defined this eruption "stealth", but its signatures are very well visible esp. in base difference. This could be classified, however, as a "problem storm", since G4 conditions were unexpected.
Click to expand...
(link)
 
Antony said:
Thanks a lot Puma, intriguing! I personally saw aurora on a couple of flights via north atlantic ages ago. If our thoughts and a will to see that beauty works that time-we will disperse the clouds🙏😉
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As we have put our intentions and ‘prayed’ - in the morning sun was battling through the clouds, but now clouds won. But turned out today no rain - as was initially 100% predicted. May consider it as a more than half of success👍 Still have to work on pure non-anticipational ‘drive’ to create our reality🙏
 
SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 26_2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13:01 UTC on March 25 from Region 3258 (N24W43)

Calm before the storm
Puma said:
Only B events from unnumbered sunspots.
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639615476799098883
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639790669144248320

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3256 AR3257, AR3258 AR3259, AR3260, AR3262 AR3264

AR3256 has grown on its westward path. It is currently 300MH in size and has a β-γ - Beta-Gamma magnetic field: A bipolar sunspot group but complex enough so that no line can be drawn between spots of opposite polarity. AR3256 will still remain in the solar disk this week and any coronal mass ejection will be geoeffective. AR3256 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.

chrome_screenshot_1679809867991.png

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 105 (35 of these are grouped into 7 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 1824 UTC on March 25 Maximum planetary index Kp4

Aurora Oval (Bz: 1.85 nT North)
aurora-map.jpg
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639758564909629441
https://twitter.com/x/status/1639678590928277510

● Current Conditions at 06:10 UTC on March 26

▪︎ Geospace unsettled
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now : Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 581.2 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 9.64 p/cm3 (low density)
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -3.7% Below Average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 04:06 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 105 (SN 108 March 25)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 
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