Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

[Jebra]

I know this sounds a bit weird...but could Prigozin have been downloaded into at some point? Afterall the C's have said that is happening in Ukraine.

 

[ziutek]

There is no evidence that any Wagner mercenaries have been sent into Belarus. Nor has Putin or anyone else in the Russian government suggested that such might happen. 'Social media influencers' and 'analysts' out there are inventing things willy-nilly.

Yes, the evidence is not there yet.
We will wait and see.

 

[Niall]

Prigozin tried to size power.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673038418085830656

Let's get the whole tweet in here: it's worth reading in full:

After the dust started to settle and the noise faded let me give you my view. Prigozin tried to size power.

He prepared for this for months. He lied about the amount of ammo provided so he can stockpile for his coup. He waited for the offensive to start, so the Russian army is focused on stopping the enemy. Then he struck.

He spread the news that the Russian army is collapsing - because that is what he wanted, a retreating Russian army and a nation looking for some one to blame. If the defensive lines would of have broken the usual doomers would all have been outraged, and many people would have been looking for someone responsible, like last autumn.

In that situation, Prigozin would step in and lead his Wagner "heroes" to stabilize the nation. A saviour. A man that rescues the day.

But the Russian army held. As the Ukrainian hordes struck, the Russians fought, dug in, and refused to retreat or break. The airforce worked around the clock. The intelligence was good and high ranking Russian generals were in the forward observation posts exactly where the Ukrainians attacked, commanding the battle and the defense. Russian reinforcements were ready, they countered where needed and the Ukrainains were smashed. Again and again.

So why start a coup?

Pregozin was already committed. He was afraid of leaks from his people, he was afraid the Russian FSB would smell him out. So he had to move. He had to start his grotesquerie. He struck at the precise moment when all the defenders of the motherland were holding back the enemy. Behind their backs. He made that fake video. Some stupid trampled forest that was supposed to be a missile strike, but the forest was green and not scorched. Another missile strike was presented, but the crater was not round, but a square. With 2 fires lit up at the bottom of the square. It convinced almost no one.

But at this point there was no turning back for Prigozin.

He spread the information about a pogrom on the front lines. that the Russian army had lost enormous territory that the Ukrainians were advancing and winning. That the truth is being hidden from the Russian people - a disaster was happening!

We were confused, we could not understand why he would say things like this. Some believed he is just emotional, some that he has PTSD, but the viper was working according to his plan. He struck . His men were already in the back of the Russian army, they moved to size the Russian command center in Rostov-on-Don and the airfields. Then they moved north to Moscow. Fast. Wagner has done this many times in Africa. Seize power, move quickly, take key objectives under your control, overrun the capital. Have government people and institutions join your side.

But no one rallied to Prigozhin's cause. The military refused to side with him. Unit after unit repudiated what he was doing. The police in Rostov refused to go on his side. The governors of the regions did not join his side. The intel services refused to participate in this. The politicians refused to side with the snake. Kadirov refused to support him and instead sent units to retake Rostov by force if need be. Not one opposition party joined the coup.

Without any support Prigozin played his last card. No more violence in exchange for the safety of his skin. He would call Wagner off if his hide is protected. That is whom Pregozin is. He was not emotional or with PTSD or had a beef with one or another Russian general. He is just a greedy and power-hungry villain.

That analysis is pretty much the same as ours. The only doubt I have is whether the eejit really was striking for power with just a few thousand duped Wagnerites loyal to him rather than Russia.

Last time we discussed it, Joe was leaning towards Prigozhin just seeking to leverage 'his assets' in order to do as he said he wanted: Shoigu and Gerasimov gone, and Wagner to be left alone as a PMC (owned by Prigozhin of course). In this scenario, a coup was never really in danger of happening, and Putin just barked really loud just so as to force Prigozhin to back down.

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673379950987034630

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673293812909715456

There is a far-right element in Russian society and politics that sees Putin's inner circle (Lavrov, Peskov etc.) as liberal traitors who are globalist/internationalist etc. Putin and his people see this element as potentially dangerous and as a destabilizing factor to Russia's unity, a unity that is so needed at this time.

Follow the money

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673282006736666626

Perhaps he was told that if he stepped a foot back in Russia, he would be arrested and charged.

Investigation into case surrounding Prigozhin continuing â source

On Saturday, the Russian Prosecutor General's Office said that, on June 23, FSB investigators opened a criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin under Article 279 of the Russian Criminal Code for organizing an armed mutiny

tass.com

MOSCOW, June 26. /TASS/. The investigation of the criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC), accused of organizing an armed mutiny, has not been closed, a source in the Russian Prosecutor General's Office confirmed to TASS on Monday.

"The criminal case against Prigozhin has not been closed. The investigation is continuing," the source said.

Kommersant newspaper reported on Monday that as of the morning of June 26, the criminal case concerning the organization of the armed mutiny involving Prigozhin has not been closed and continues to be investigated by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB).

On Saturday, the Russian Prosecutor General's Office said that, on June 23, FSB investigators opened a criminal case against Yevgeny Prigozhin under Article 279 of the Russian Criminal Code for organizing an armed mutiny. The case was initiated after Prigozhin's Telegram channel published statements that his units were allegedly attacked and appealed to supporters to come out against the country’s top military leaders. The crime is punishable by 12 to 20 years in prison.

The Russian Defense Ministry denied information about Russian strikes on the "rear camps of the Wagner PMC." Russian President Vladimir Putin made a televised address to Russian citizens, servicemen and law enforcement agencies, slamming the ongoing events as a stab in the back.

Opinion:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1672995483982209027

 

[Niall]

Yes - here's a take:

There is a far-right element in Russian society and politics that sees Putin's inner circle (Lavrov, Peskov etc.) as liberal traitors who are globalist/internationalist etc. Putin and his people see this element as potentially dangerous and as a destabilizing factor to Russia's unity, a unity that is so needed at this time.

Add to this that fighting forces who gain lots of experience and achieve victories inevitably develop a sort of corps spirit, which can easily get out of hand especially if pathological individuals are not rooted out early on (Ponerology talks about this, as does some Western military person if I remember correctly - you just need a few bad apples in military units to turn everything upside down). This might have partly happened with Wagner, and perhaps even with some of the military figures from the Donetsk/Lugansk militias.

All of that, taken together, may have led to a situation where discontent is brewing among certain demographics thanks to some of these demagogues, especially younger men politically more right-wing than Putin who don't consume Russia's state media but get their info from "heroes" on the internet. It might not have become truly dangerous for Putin, but at least concerning, and potentially even threatening down the road, if those forces come together one day in a serious coup attempt.

Enter Prigozhin, a walking sh*tshow waiting to go off. They had to know that he's up to something, and so they just watched closely and allowed him to escalate. Who knows, maybe they had even subtly encouraged him, the spook game and all that. He probably thought he had a chance to achieve something, as did some of his allies and some of the "patriots" who would love to see Shoigun and gang go down. So he did his thing.

Of course, he couldn't achieve anything but was busted. Letting this happen achieved two things:

1) Unmasking the conspirators and rogue elements in Wagner and likely other places, perhaps even some Western-/Ukraine-aligned 5th column types and organizations who joined the fray once the sh*tshow got rolling (remember that so many in the West actually believed he could regime-change Putin! And even within Russia there are people who believed this.)

2) Discrediting the radical "patriot" elements within Russia in the eyes of the majority population, including those who may have been on the fence or sympathizing somewhat with their positions.

Especially the second would explain why Putin made such a big deal of it, with his speech and all that. They could have dealt with it more quietly, sending the message that they don't even take it seriously, which would have looked better on the world stage. But they needed the media storm to discredit them and, by proxy, everybody who shares some of their ideas - ideas, again, that might threaten national unity.

Putin's speech also fits this perfectly - he basically said: "Look, these guys are telling you they are the real patriots, that our military is incompetent, that my closest circle are sell-outs and liberal traitors. But look now, it's actually *them* who are the traitors, the back-stabbers, who threaten our unity as a country and people. Oh, and they are also incompetent as hell." And he even mentioned 1917, where such unpatriotic treachery led to the Bolshevik revolution - and of course the Bolsheviks are the arch-enemies of the right-wingers. The message is basically: "it's not me (Putin) and my friends who usher in Western globalist leftism; rather it's that if those traitors have their way, we will have another Bolshevik revolution." All of that is precisely what he would say if he wanted to discredit those currents within Russia and its institutions.

Well, that's one take. There are others, and let's see how all of this unfolds.

I think you nailed it. Putin is the consummate politician, and, as Kadyrov said, he sees ALL the moves afoot - within and without Russia - so when he acts, he has in mind The Bigger Political Picture.

On this note, he could well have actually been obstructing Wagner's ammunition and other supplies as part of leading Prigozhin into this trap. Prigozhin's politically astute enough to know that he couldn't b*tch to the Russian public about Putin doing that, so he targeted Shoigu & Gerasimov and 'the oligarchy' instead.

 

[Altair]

Another take on this - Inessa S posted this the other day:

[...]
In this older interview, Pegov tells Wagner Chief Prigozhin that the Ministry of Defense is not issuing him more ammo in the event of Wagner going rogue.
[...]

It actually makes sense. If MoD knew back then and probably even earlier about the possibility of the riot by Prigozhin, then they would give him only as much ammo as necessary for retaking Bakhmut.

 

[Aeneas]

Putin just made a public speech. This is the transcript posted on Slavyangrad TM channel:

VLADIMIR PUTIN's COMPLETE STATEMENT
(@Slavyangrad Transcript):

Dear Friends, I am once again addressing Russian citizens.
Thank you for solidarity, for unity, for patriotism.
Any attempts at internal discord are fated to failure.
Everyone united against the insurrection.
The entire Russian society acted for the Fatherland.
From the beginning, everything was done to neutralize the threat.
In any event, the mutiny would have been put down.
They had to have understood this.
They understood everything.
They understood that they went against the state, which meant that Russia was threatened, which meant that this could affect the front.
They betrayed those whom they drew into their crime. They wanted to get them to shoot at Russians.
The West, the Ukraine, the "pseudo-patriots" in Russia—they all wanted Russians to shoot at each other.
But they failed and made a mistake.
I thank all the Russian soldiers, all those who maintained fealty to Russia.
Their heroism prevented Russia from falling apart.
At the same time, the main bulk of Wagner are patriots of Russia. They were drawn into this blind.
From the beginning, on my orders, we made this bloodless.
To allow those who made a mistake to change their minds.
So they would understand their mistake.
I thank those Wagner soldiers and commanders who did not make a mistake.
You have a chance to continue fighting for Russia. To go back to your loved ones. To go to Belarus.
My word will remain firm.
The choice is yours.
The consolidation of the nation made all the difference. It is that which allowed us to remain united and firm.

 

[Niall]

I thank those Wagner soldiers and commanders who did not make a mistake.
You have a chance to continue fighting for Russia. To go back to your loved ones. To go to Belarus.

Ok, now the suggestion's been made that Wagner fighters go to Belarus.

What does Putin mean by this? That those loyal to Prigozhin may go regroup with him?

 

[Cosmos]

I think we probably need an official translation of what Putin said. Details of translation might need to be considered. And/or we need some russian speakers to chime in on what he said. I guess it will take a couple of hours until the official translation is released.

 

[Chu]

I think we probably need an official translation of what Putin said. Details of translation might need to be considered. And/or we need some russian speakers to chime in on what he said. I guess it will take a couple of hours until the official translation is released.

I got the transcript. Deepl translation gives:

Dear friends!

Today I once again appeal to all citizens of Russia. Thank you for your endurance, solidarity and patriotism. This civic solidarity has shown that any blackmail, any attempt to create internal turmoil is doomed to failure.

I repeat, the highest consolidation of society, executive and legislative power at all levels was shown. A firm, unambiguous position in support of the constitutional order was taken by public organizations, religious denominations, leading political parties, in fact, the entire Russian society. Everyone was united and rallied by the main thing - responsibility for the fate of the Fatherland.

I emphasize that from the very beginning of the events, all the necessary decisions were immediately taken to neutralize the threat that had arisen, to protect the constitutional order, the life and security of our citizens.

An armed rebellion would have been suppressed in any case. The organizers of the rebellion, despite the loss of adequacy, could not fail to understand this. They understood everything, including that they went to criminal acts, to split and weaken the country, which is now confronting a colossal external threat, unprecedented pressure from outside. When at the front with the words 'not a step back!' our comrades are dying.

However, the organizers of the rebellion, betraying their country, their people, betrayed those who were drawn into the crime. They lied to them, pushed them to death, under fire, to shoot at their own.

It was precisely this outcome - fratricide - that Russia's enemies wanted: both the neo-Nazis in Kyiv, and their Western patrons, and all sorts of national traitors. They wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other, to kill military personnel and civilians, so that in the end Russia would lose, and our society would split, choke in bloody civil strife.

They rubbed their hands, dreaming of taking revenge for their failures at the front and during the so-called counteroffensive, but they miscalculated.

I thank all our military personnel, law enforcement officers, special services who stood in the way of the rebels, remained faithful to their duty, oath and their people. The courage and self-sacrifice of the fallen heroes-pilots saved Russia from tragic devastating consequences.

At the same time, we knew and we know that the overwhelming majority of the fighters and commanders of the Wagner group are also Russian patriots, devoted to their people and state. They proved it with their courage on the battlefield, liberating the Donbass and Novorossiya. They tried to use them in the dark against their brothers in arms, with whom they fought together for the sake of the country and its future.

Therefore, from the very beginning of the events, on my direct instructions, steps were taken to avoid a lot of bloodshed. This took time, including to give those who made a mistake a chance to think again, to understand that their actions are strongly rejected by society, and to what tragic, destructive consequences for Russia, for our state, the adventure in which they were dragged leads.

I thank those soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group who made the only right decision - they did not go to fratricidal bloodshed, they stopped at the last line.

Today you have the opportunity to continue serving Russia by entering into a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other law enforcement agencies, or to return to your family and friends. Whoever wants to can go to Belarus. The promise I made will be fulfilled. I repeat, the choice is yours, but I am sure it will be the choice of Russian soldiers who have realized their tragic mistake.

I am grateful to the President of Belarus Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko for his efforts and contribution to the peaceful resolution of the situation.

But I repeat, it was the patriotic spirit of the citizens, the consolidation of the entire Russian society that played a decisive role these days. This support allowed us to overcome the most difficult trials for our Motherland together.

Thank you for that. Thank you.

 

[Chaze]

Ok, now the suggestion's been made that Wagner fighters go to Belarus.

What does Putin mean by this? That those loyal to Prigozhin may go regroup with him?

Now I’m curious if Lukashenko’s address tomorrow will be related to this in any way?

I also find it fascinating that Putin remarked Wagner’s role in liberating the Donbass AND Novorossiya?

Was that a cryptic way of “officially” saying they’re going to liberate Odessa, and the remaining territories of Novorossiya soon? Or am I overthinking this?

 

[Aeneas]

I got the transcript. Deepl translation gives:

Thank you for posting that transcript, which is much fuller and detailed.

Ok, now the suggestion's been made that Wagner fighters go to Belarus.

What does Putin mean by this? That those loyal to Prigozhin may go regroup with him?

It is a good question what Wagner fighters are going to do in Belarus. Apparently local sources say that a camp with a capacity of 8000 Wagner fighters is being built with another 2 in the pipeline. That, if true would be almost 25000 fighters. If they are loyal to Pregozhin, then that could be a threat to Belarus, one would think. There will be elections in Belarus next year and one wonders what deal or promises President Lukashenko made with Pregozhin. It will likely become clearer in the coming weeks what exactly is going to happen and also what Pregozhin's role if any, will be, moving forward.

On a more humerous note, though the casualties were not exactly 0 (but more like 32 for Russia):

 

[Joe]

Here's another cope-fuelled conspiracy theory I just thought of.

The real problem was a small but powerful element in Wagner, not Prigozhin who remained loyal. The Russian govts. plan was to disband Wagner, but this group had other ideas and were actively planning a coup. Under Putin's instruction, Prigozhin played the role of being aligned with this group in order to control it and lead the "coup" attempt which, when defeated, would allow for the identifcation of the core group of putchists and the disbanding of Wagner. Mission accomplished.

But even I don't buy it. I think "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar" applies here. Prigozhin is a blow hard with delusions of grandeur, and a liar. He was, however, outsmarted by Putin, who I think now enjoys increased popularity among both the Russian military and population.

 

[Altair]

Ok, now the suggestion's been made that Wagner fighters go to Belarus.

What does Putin mean by this? That those loyal to Prigozhin may go regroup with him?

Or to join Russian troops stationed there. Putin literally just said “or to go to Belarus” as an alternative option, so it’s not completely clear.

 

[Joe]

Now I’m curious if Lukashenko’s address tomorrow will be related to this in any way?

I also find it fascinating that Putin remarked Wagner’s role in liberating the Donbass AND Novorossiya?

Was that a cryptic way of “officially” saying they’re going to liberate Odessa, and the remaining territories of Novorossiya soon? Or am I overthinking this?

Overthinking, I think. The majority of Wagner members are patriotic Russians who did not support Prig's "coup". This ref. is a hattip to them in recognition of their efforts and to keep them onside in this farce caused by Prig.