Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 05_2024

PREPARING FOR THE EVENT. Sun activity is going through a lull...has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. We are 3 days away from the solar eclipse and the sun has taken a break. At 05:00 UTC on April 4 the lowest level of the day was recorded, an A4.9 flare.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 47 of which 9 of them are grouped into 5 active regions as follows: AR3624, AR3626, AR3627, AR3628 & new region AR3629

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 30% chance of C flares, 5% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (kp3) for the past 24 hours. On April 04 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s (Moderately high speed due to a solar wind stream coming from a coronal hole) at 18:49 UTC Total IMF reached 11 nT at 07:36 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.73 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:47 UTC on April 05

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at elevated speed of more than 400 km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.
The band of cloudiness jeopardizes the enjoyment of a good panoramic view of the eclipse over the U.S. territory.

On April 04 Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares. (In fact the first C-class flare in 48 hours happened at 03:05 UTC) on the other hand the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 439 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 13.26 p/cm³ (Moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C3 0305 UT Apr05
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-3.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 47 (SN 45 April 04)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 06_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3.8 event observed at 0300 UTC

​

SUDDEN QUIET: Solar activity has dropped to low levels as the sun turns a nearly spotless hemisphere toward Earth. Since giant sunspot AR3615 departed last week, the sun's baseline X-ray output has decreased by about a factor of ten. No solar storms are predicted between now and the April 8th solar eclipse. SpaceWeather.com​

The total number of sunspots has increased to 81 of which 23 of them are grouped into 5 active regions as follows: AR3626, AR3627, AR3628, AR3629 & new regions AR363O, AR3631, AR3632

AR3624 is gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 40% chance of C flares, 5% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels (kp4) for the past 24 hours. On April 05 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 485 km/s (Elevated speed due to a solar wind stream coming from a coronal hole) at 23:06 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21;30 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.18 nT South


● Current Conditions at 05:07 UTC on April 06

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) The solar wind is now at elevated speed of more than 400 km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.​

LATE-SEASON ARCTIC AURORAS: Around the Arctic Circle, many aurora tour guides have already packed their cameras for the end of the season. Marianne Bergli of Tromsø, Norway, is glad she waited one more night. "Auroras filled the sky on April 4th," she reports. "It was a fantastic end to our touring season."​

​

A solar wind stream brushed Earth's magnetic field on April 4th. It did not cause a global geomagnetic storm; the planetary K-index peaked at 4. Nevertheless, the Arctic light show was sublime.​

Soon, summer sunlight will make these displays impossible to see inside the Arctic Circle. SpaceWeather.com​

ECLIPSE WEATHER FORECAST: It's a terrible time for clouds. The last total eclipse in the USA for 20 years happens on Monday, April 8th, and, according to forecasts, most of the path of totality will be overcast:​

​

Millions of people traveling to statistically-clear areas in Mexico and Texas could find themselves staring at gray clouds instead of the eclipsed sun. Cloudier parts of New England might, ironically, have a better view.​

On April 04 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for a C-class flares on the other hand the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 433 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 7.5 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C1 0118 UT Apr06
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-3.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 81 (SN 47 April 05)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 07_2024

THE QUIET PERIOD OF THE SUN CONTINUES. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 0121 UTC

The total number of sunspots has increased to 71 of which 23 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3627, AR3628, AR3629, AR363O, AR3631, AR3632 & new region AR3633

AR3626 is gone
​

BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR3615, last seen in March crackling with X-flares, is now transiting the farside of the sun. The sunspot is so big, it is affecting the way the sun vibrates, allowing researchers to detect its seismic echo. Also, NASA's rover Perseverance can see the sunspot all the way from Mars. This large active region will return to the Earthside of the sun about a week from now. SpaceWeather.com​

NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 40% chance of C flares, 5% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels (kp4) for the past 24 hours. On April 05 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 12:43 UTC Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02:16 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: -2.71 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:16 UTC on April 07

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at elevated speed of more than 400 km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.

Tonight in Fairbanks... photo by Vincent Ledvina vía X

On April 07 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for a C-class flares on the other hand the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 438 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.93 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : B5 0025 UT Apr07
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-3.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 71 (SN 81 April 06)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 08_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 1926 UTC from Region 3632 (N26E16).

The total number of sunspots has increased to 79 of which 19 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows: AR3628, AR3629, AR363O, AR3631 (alpha), AR3632 & AR3633

AR3627 is gone

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 35% chance of C flares, 5% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares.

AR3633 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. On April 07 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s (Elevated speed) at 22:27 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21:12 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: -5.47 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:26 UTC on April 08

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) The solar wind is now at normal speed of more than 350 km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.

On April 08 Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777046773678190646

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 395 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 10.2 p/cm³ (moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 6 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C1 0315 UT Apr08
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 79 (SN 71 April 07)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 09_2024

The sun decided not to disturb the show of the moon and remains calm. Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 0314 UTC from Region 3634 (N27E54).

The sun timidly showed some prominences during the eclipse.

Mazatlan Mexico


Total darkness in Mazatlan,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777402292389519488

Eclipse over Torreon, Coahuila,

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777412878280151492

Carterville, IL US




The total number of sunspots has increased to 79 of which 36 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3624 (alpha)AR3628, AR3629, AR363O (alpha), AR3631 (alpha), AR3632 (alpha), AR3633 & new region AR3634 (alpha)

NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 40% chance of C flares, 10% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares.

AR3633 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On April 08 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s (Elevated speed) at 20:00 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02:35 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: -3.72 nT South (Moderate)


● Current Conditions at 04:56 UTC on April 09

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 1 (quiet) The solar wind is now at normal speed of more than 350 km/s pointing south with a Bz component -3.7 which offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes.

On April 09 Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 1)
▪Solar wind speed record: 395 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 5.65 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 7.4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C1 0353 UT Apr09
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 79 (SN 79 April 08)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 10_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 0353 UTC

Images of the eclipse continue to surprise, eclipse and volcanic eruption simultaneously

https://twitter.com/x/status/1777505744322981976

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 64 of which 14 of them are grouped into 5 active regions as follows: AR3628, AR3629, AR3632 (alpha), AR3633, AR3634 (alpha)

AR3624, AR363O & AR3631 are gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 40% chance of C flares, 10% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. AR3633 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.​

QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: The sun has not produced a significant solar flare in more than a week. The best chance for a break in the quiet is sunspot AR3633; it has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class explosions. NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance of such a solar flare today. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On April 09 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s (Elevated speed) at 19:19 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05:20 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: 1.68 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:27 UTC on April 10

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) The solar wind is now at elevated speed of more than 400 km/s pointing north with a Bz component 1.68 which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Interplanetary Magnetic Field has low impact on Earth's magnetic field.

On April 10 Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for the next 24 hours

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 434 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4.63 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C2 0222 UT Apr10
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -4.3% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 64 (SN 79 April 09)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 11_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 1151 UTC from Region 3629 (N05W98).

Sun activity is starting to pick up. In the following graph we observe that B-class flares (green) had prevailed mainly a couple of days before the eclipse and a day after and it is not until the 10th that C-class flares (orange) began to occur.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778013661698642318

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778009560810209642

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 54 of which 14 of them are grouped into 4 active regions as follows:
AR3628 /4 sunspots ,
AR3633/6 sunspots,
AR3634/2 sunspots
AR3635/2 sunspots (new region)

AR3629, AR3632 are gone

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 55% chance of C flares, 10% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. AR3633 has a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On April 10 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s (Elevated speed) at 12:19 UTC Total IMF reached 8 nT at 00:16 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.14 nT North

● Current Conditions at 04:38 UTC on April 11

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at elevated speed of more than 450 km/s pointing north with a Bz component 0.14 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Interplanetary Magnetic Field has low impact on Earth's magnetic field.

On April 11 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for a M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 465 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 9 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C2 0136 UT Apr11
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.8% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 54 (SN 64 April 10)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 12_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5.4 event observed at 17:06 UTC the flare generated a Moderate R2 radio blackout over Central America. This flare would have been much larger in reality, possibly X-class.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778508171163648128

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778484330072838539

The total number of sunspots has increased to 81 of which 31 of them are grouped into 5 active regions as follows:
AR3628 /6 sunspots ,
AR3633/5 sunspots,
AR3634/10 sunspots
AR3635/8 sunspots
AR3636/ 2 sunspots (new region)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778370838246400253

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 80% chance of C flares, 25% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. AR3633 has lost its gamma component but AR3634 has developed a beta-gamma magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On April 11 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 14:15 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21:01 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.04 nT South


● Current Conditions at 03:41 UTC on April 12

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at elevated speed of more than 400 km/s pointing south with a Bz component -1.04 that offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. Interplanetary Magnetic Field has low impact on Earth's magnetic field.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778449639328370933

On April 11 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for a M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next 24 hours

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 421 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 4 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 4 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C5 2130 UT Apr11
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 81 (SN 54 April 11)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Ryan]

This flare would have been much larger in reality, possibly X-class.​

Why do you say that? Moderate to strong M-flares often produce R2 blackouts, and the NOAA forecast from the previous day put the chance of an X-flare at about 1%.

 

[Puma]

Why do you say that? Moderate to strong M-flares often produce R2 blackouts, and the NOAA forecast from the previous day put the chance of an X-flare at about 1%.

Because the flare was partially hidden by the curvature of the sun.

Usually flares above M5.0 produce moderate R2 blackouts. M1 to M4 flares are commonly R1, but it also depends on the location of the planet.

NOAA's forecast is for the numbered regions and where M5.4 occurred is still undesignated and on the far side of the sun.

 

[Ryan]

Because the flare was partially hidden by the curvature of the sun.

Ah, thanks! That makes sense.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 13_2024

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 1755 UTC

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778973204247158886

The total number of sunspots has increased to 83 of which 33 of them are grouped into 5 active regions as follows:
AR3628 /3 sunspots / 240MH,
AR3633/6 sunspots / 110MH,
AR3634/13 sunspots/ 120MH
AR3635/9 sunspots/ 50MH
AR3636/ 2 sunspots/ 50MH

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 35% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp3) for the past 24 hours. On April 12 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s (Elevated speed) at 14:15 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11:46 UTC.
​

A GLANCING-BLOW CME IS COMING: NOAA forecasters say that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on April 14th. The glancing blow could trigger a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with photographic auroras at high latitudes. This CME was hurled into space by a beautiful eruption in the sun's northern hemisphere on April 11th SpaceWeather.com​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1778998846921839099

Aurora Oval Bz: -0.83 nT South

● Current Conditions at 04:45 UTC on April 13

Geomagnetic activity is at the Kp 2 index (quiet). The solar wind has a normal speed of more than 395 km/s pointing south with a Bz -0.83 component that offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. The interplanetary magnetic field has little impact on the Earth's magnetic field. Solar flares continue at C-class levels

On April 13 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for a M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 395 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 3 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C3 2314 UT Apr12
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.7% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 83 (SN 81 April 12)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.

.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.comAR3628 /3 sunspots​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 14_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.4 event observed at 0502 UTC from Region 3637 (S11E66) The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South East Asia


The total number of sunspots has increased to 115 of which 45 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows:
○AR3628 /4 sunspots / 180MH,
○AR3633/8 sunspots / 110MH,
○AR3634/17 sunspots/ 280MH
○AR3635/ 7sunspots/ 30MH
○AR3636/ 5 sunspots/ 100MH
○AR3637/ 3 sunspots/ 20MH (new region)
○AR3638/ 1 sunspot/ 30MH (new region)

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 35% chance of M flares and 1% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (Kp1) for the past 24 hours. On April 13 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s (Elevated speed) at 16:16 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 23:46 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.55 nT North

​

● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on April 14

Geomagnetic activity is at the Kp 2 index (quiet). The solar wind has a normal speed of more than 300 km/s pointing north with a Bz value of 0.55 that offers low conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. The interplanetary magnetic field has little impact on the Earth's magnetic field. New sunspot AR3637 is crackling with impulsive M-class solar flares. At 02:32 UTC produced a M4.3 that generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over South East Asia.



Solar wind with a very high density (184.93 p/cm³) was recorded at 03:17 UTC (SpaceWeatherlive..com data)

On April 13 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for a M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 317 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 2.43 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M4 0232 UT Apr14
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 115 (SN 83 April 13)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 15_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 0232 UTC from Region 3637 (S12E53 see previous post)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1779702102484308274

The total number of sunspots has increased to 152 of which 52 of them are grouped into 10 active regions as follows:
○AR3628/ 2 sunspots / 120MH,
○AR3633/ 2sunspots / 80MH,
○AR3634/18 sunspots/ 290MH
○AR3635/ 5 sunspots/ 20MH
○AR3636/ 4 sunspots/ 80MH
○AR3637/ 4 sunspots/ 40MH
○AR3638/ 1 sunspot/ 30MH
○ AR3639/ 7 sunspots/ 30MH (new region)
○ AR3640/ 1 sunspot/ 10MH (new region)
○ AR3641/ 8 sunspots/ 70MH (new region)

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 45% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels (Kp2) for the past 24 hours. On April 14 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 23:17 UTC Total IMF reached 6 nT at 00:41 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.59 nT South


● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on April 15
Geomagnetic activity is at the Kp 2 index (quiet). The solar wind has a normal speed of more than 350 km/s pointing south with a Bz value of -1.59 that offers moderate conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. The interplanetary magnetic field has little impact on the Earth's magnetic field. At 0118 UTC Sunspot AR3639 produced a M1.7 solar flare that generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean.


On April 13 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for a M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.​

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH--CANCELLED:
A pair of minor CMEs expected to graze Earth on April 14th have either missed or are moving more slowly than expected. Either way, they are unlikely to cause a geomagnetic storm. The watch is cancelled. SpaceWeather.com​

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 365 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 0.31 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0118 UT Apr15
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 152 (SN 115 April 14)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
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SpaceWeatherlive.com
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[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT APRIL 16_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. AR3634 produced 2 M-class flares and AR3639 produced 5 M-class flares.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3.9 event observed at 19:32 UTC from Region 3639 (N30E48). The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over North America



Other M-class flares

● M1 at 07:32 UTC from AR3639 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean


● M2.3 at 08:42 from AR3634 the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Somalia and Saudi Arabia


● M1.2 at 09:32 UTC from AR3639 The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over East Africa


● M1.1 at 13:58 UTC from AR3639 The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ridge
● M1.4 at 14:04 UTC from AR3634 The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ridge
● M2.2 at 14:17 UTC from AR3639 The flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ridge


The total number of sunspots has increased to 190 of which 63 of them are grouped into 12 active regions as follows:
○AR3628/ 1 sunspots / 60MH,
○AR3633/ 1 sunspots / 80MH,
○AR3634/ 23 sunspots/ 300MH
○AR3635/ 3 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3636/ 3 sunspots/ 90MH
○AR3637/ 2 sunspots/ 10MH
○AR3638/ 1 sunspot/ 30MH
○ AR3639/ 7 sunspots/ 30MH
○ AR3640/ 1 sunspot/ 10MH
○ AR3641/ 8 sunspots/ 70MH
○ AR3642/ 5 sunspots/ 10MH (new region)
○ AR3643/ 8 sunspots/ 100MH (new region)

NOAA's forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 60% chance of M flares and 5% chance of X flares. All regions have stable magnetic fields

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels (Kp4) for the past 24 hours. On April 15 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s (Moderately high speed) at 22:17 UTC Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12:11 UTC.

Aurora Oval Bz: 3.76 nT North


● Current Conditions at 04:50 UTC on April 16

Geomagnetic activity is at the Kp 4 index (active). The solar wind has a normal speed of more than 350 km/s pointing north with a Bz value of 3.76 that offers good conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. The interplanetary magnetic field has little impact on the Earth's magnetic field.
On April 16 Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for a M-class flares while the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 360 km/sec (Normal speed)
▪︎ density: 9 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 9 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C1 0120 UT Apr16
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today: -3.4% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 190 (SN 152 April 15)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun.
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SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.comAR3638/ 4 sunspots/ 80MH​