However it is important to say that what is a critical issue for Britain and its people is nowhere near so critical for the rest of the world. Contrary to some people’s predictions, if Britain votes to leave I fully expect the EU to continue in much the same way as it is doing today. Flesh creeping talk of the EU’s collapse, of a global economic crisis, of sweeping advances in Europe by the far right, of the collapse of the Western alliance, of Russian “expansion” (a particularly absurd claim) and of the outbreak of World War III (ditto) are utter nonsense.
Even if Britain votes to leave it will take several years before it actually happens – if it even does – and arrangements will certainly be put in place during that period to ensure that the Western alliance remains intact, that US influence in Europe remains undiminished and that the disruption to the rest of the EU is reduced to a minimum. As it happens if Britain votes to leave I expect Britain to draw closer still to the US (I give no credence to hopes it would draw closer to Russia) in which case US influence in Europe might actually grow. As for the EU, since Britain is not a member of the Eurozone, the disruption caused by its departure will be small.