The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

Aeneas

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Many of the proponents of global warming/change/meltdown have talked about the arctic sea ice and how the lower and lower seaice would lead to a death spiral marking the end of sea ice on the arctic. This has not happened and even if the sea ice did go low this year, the rebound is quite impressive. To give a comparison, below are the sea ice (15%) figures from Nansen since 2002, day 352:
I decided to check out the values today and do an update. The values are for 2004-2020 as 2002 and 2003 didn't have any values for this day.
Sea ice area Jan 20th 2004-2020.gif
A chart for one day does not show the whole picture and can be misleading as one can choose different start and end date to give the message one wishes. In this case I took all the values that were available for this day and added a trend line. Even if summer ice goes low, there is no indication that it leads to a run away meltdown. It appears that the Arctic is very resilient and bounces back every winter with great vigor. The trend for the 20th of January is not showing a decline but instead a very slight increase. The average Sea ice for the period was 12.265.049 km2.
 

itellsya

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Should read : and the it made the test inaccurate.

By the way I was thinking: if sunspots influence a fertility indicator of women, can it have an influence directly on the fertility?

About 10 years ago i read a few books by Maurice Cotterell (discussed on the forum briefly here - and his work didn't get a great reception - his website is here), in the majority of them he takes famous ancient artifacts and claims to decode them, stating that they encode 'the science of the Sun' in their design. If i recall correctly, in particular he thought he saw in them the duration of time it would take for the Sun to do a full rotation at it's pole and around at it's equator, something like 28 days and 32/1 days respectively.

Now, whilst the books were interesting i can't say whether or not they were true. I'm working on the premise they were not. Because he also investigated the causes of leaky gut, something he suffered from, and part of his recommendations in how to cure it involved eating a vegetarian diet for months.

Then again he does link the sun with warm periods and ice ages.

Anyway, he believes ancient civilisations documented the solar cycles because of the profound effect they had on human life. There was some link with sunspots and heightened risk of schizophrenia, as well as, what's relevant here, low sunspot numbers meant something like more radiation from space that in turn resulted in low fertility rates.

He claims that at some ancient sites they built the outline of 'windows' into the buildings but the windows were actually deliberately closed off, and women, whose fertility would be negatively effected by the increased radiation at these times, would be kept within these buildings.

I don't recall him ever mentioning comets or cosmic catastrophes of any kind.

So, i can't say whether any of this is true or not - it's quite possible that he's seeing patterns everywhere - but below are a few screenshots to get an idea of what he's saying all the same:

On fertility:


1 page from his 14 page PDF on leaky gut:
 

Debra

Jedi Master
The province in Canada, Newfoundland, is finally digging out of the Polar Vortex Snow dump. The people living there are generally considered to be very friendly, and able to find humor in almost any situation.
Here are a few pictures.
The pics are from friends, Family and local news.

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Humor and creativity...


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One Grocery Store/warehouse was opened on day 3 AFTER the storm, and the lineup began.


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The west end of the City of St.Johns, NFL.

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Residential side street.

And a Canadian tradition, STORM CHIPS!
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What are Storm Chips?
"Storm chips are a weird Atlantic Canadian phenomenon. If there’s a storm in the forecast you best stock up on potato chips. Those are your storm chips. There’s something about a snowstorm that makes a person snacky here. Being housebound means normal rules don’t apply. Treat yo’self."
 

Debra

Jedi Master
Here is an interesting list that is from a Newfoundland, Canada, FB group page.
The author, Terry Ethridge, teaches Emergency Planning and Shelter in Place courses.
Today is January 23 and it is day 7, after the Storm.

There is still a "State of Emergency" declared.
The majority of Stores and businesses are NOT open.
The few that are open, such as the grocery store pictured in my previous post, are by Government permission, and supervision.

The City is being assisted by the Canadian Military. There are approximately 300 troops shoveling driveways and walks, going door to door doing safety checks.

Regarding being prepared, Terry writes:

It’s not ‘till the lights come back on, it’s ‘till the emergency is declared over.

A 550 watt generator will consume 32 litres a day or a 45 gallon drum every 3 1/2 days.

Is your house designed to isolate 1 room for emergency? Do you know how to drain your water pipes ?

Do you have a tilt-n-swing window on your second floor? How about a roof hatch in line with your attic hatch? A ladder to get out easily?

How about a system to get combustion air into your furnace or wood stove and exhaust out? High efficiency sealed combustion units get both from within 3 ft, off the ground . Where is yours ? Are you making Carbon Monoxide right now ? Do have a CO / smoke detector in your SIP Room.

Do you have a secondary heating source?

Skis & snow shoes?

Thermal plugs for your windows to reduce your fuel consumption at night by 40%?

10-15 days of artificial light? Ie: One Coleman lantern, 6 wicks & 5 4-liter cans of fuel.

Consider a 200 watt solar panel and 1-50 ah marine deep cycle battery. For charging batteries, phones & running an ‘ambient light’ (a night light).

10 days of non perishable food for everyone + 25% and a fool proof way to cook it.

You must be prepared to change diets in an emergency and go to your dried stores.

A system to make grey water for flushing the toilet? ( keep drinking quality water for food and drinking.)

Building? Consider this storm. A new design (or an old “Post Disaster “ design) is needed.
 

itellsya

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Since the sun and its affects on health have been discussed here, i thought this would be as good a place as anywhere to post this.

While i'm I'm pretty sure there have already been studies correlating weather events and health, like thunder and lightning storms and the increased incidence of heart attacks, the following paper - and it's probably not the first of its kind either - seems to claim that solar events and the resulting conditions on Earth lead to an increase of issues with certain illnesses, in this instance, cardiovascular.

I don't totally understand the paper - and perhaps someone else can help decipher it - but i'll do my best to summarise the information given, and the abstract is below.

Overall it seems to be claiming that by studying patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome who were admitted to a hospital in Estonia during the years of 2000 - 2005 they found a correlation between geomagnetic storms, fast solar wind, and the worsening of symptoms (please correct me if i've misunderstood).

My thinking is that as the Sun goes quiet, Earth's geomagnetic field is weakening and in turn the impact of solar events is felt even more acutely on Earth. And even though the Sun is technically quiet, that doesn't mean there won't be solar flares, it may also be that the solar wind that usually wouldn't be so harmful will be more so because of the lowered geomagnetic field.

What also notable is that this study was based on data from 15-20 years ago, and conditions have changed a lot since then, one could assume that were they may find an even higher incidence on hospital admissions if they used more recent data.

Anyway, just some thoughts, maybe i've misunderstood something - study can be found below:

Available online 25 January 2020
In Press, Journal Pre-proof
What are Journal Pre-proof articles?
Life Sciences in Space Research
The associations of geomagnetic storms, fast solar wind, and stream interaction regions with cardiovascular characteristic in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Author links open overlay panelDeivydasKiznysa
JoneVenclovieneaIrenaMilvidaitėb

RedirectingGet rights and content

Abstract

It is shown the statistical associations between space weather pattern and humans’ cardiovascular system. We investigated the association between space weather events and cardiovascular characteristics of 4076 randomly selected patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who were admitted for inpatient treatment in Kaunas city, Lithuania during 2000–2005. We hypothesized that days of the space weather events, 1–3 days after, and the period between two events, named as intersection days (1–3 days after the event, which coincided with 1–3 days before the event), might be associated with patients’ cardiovascular characteristics. The multivariate logistic regression was applied, and the patients’ risk was evaluated by odds ratio (OR), adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, the day of the week, and seasonality.

During the intersection days of geomagnetic storms (GS), the risk of ACS increases in obese patients (OR=1.72, p=0.008). The risk of ventricular fibrillation during admission was associated with stream interaction region (SIR) with a lag of 0–3 days (OR=1.44, p=0.049) The risk of ACS in patients with chronic atrial fibrillation was associated with fast solar wind (FSW) (≥600 km/s) (lag 0–3 days, OR=1.39, p=0.030) and with days of solar proton event (lag 0–3) going in conjunction with SIR (lag 0–3) (OR=2.06, p=0.021). During days which were not assigned as GS with a lag of (-3–3) days, FSW (lag 0–3) was associated with the risk of ACS in patients with renal disease (OR=1.71, p=0.008) and days of SIR – with the risk in patients with pulmonary disease (OR=1.53, p=0.021).

A SIR event, days between two space weather events, and FSW without GS may be associated with a risk to human health.

View full text
© 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The Committee on Space Research (COSPAR).

Added: I just saw that Suspicious 0bservers talks about it in his video (i haven't listened to it yet) so maybe he explains it more simply for the layman:
 
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Voyageur

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Overall it seems to be claiming that by studying patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome who were admitted to a hospital in Estonia during the years of 2000 - 2005 they found a correlation between geomagnetic storms, fast solar wind, and the worsening of symptoms (please correct me if i've misunderstood).

This seems to have some bearing. Had a post here from 2014 focused on geomagnetic events producing aurora's with various comments and one possible in line with the above (had to fix the original link - works now):


- Interestingly, aurora are used to predict when extra ambulances are needed (in Russia) possible because of the fluctuating magnetic field lines and heightened cardiac issues?
 

itellsya

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I'm not sure if this made it into January's Earth Changes - this is the first time i've come across the video, it apparently happened Jan 25th - but i thought it was pretty cool so i figured i'd share it here:

There's also the early blossoming of trees and flowers that i'm seeing reported more often on social media - and recently it was in the news in the US (see here). Granted it's not necessarily news for us here, because it has been happening on and off for years now (although it may be that it's becoming more frequent), but i just find it interesting to see what kinds of changes are catching the attention of people who normally aren't paying much attention.

 

guimondaniel

Jedi Master
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This morning we have had 10cm of snow so far and awaiting twice that amount during the day.
Québec, the Laurentians. Our winter season runs well into late March. Last year we had toi shovel our roofs several times in Febuary and March because of the wight and the blocking of the air vents on our roof.
Today 02/07 90% / 8 mm
Cloudy with snow. High -6C. Winds N at 15 to 30 km/h. Chance of snow 90%. 7-12cm of snow expected.
Source: wunderground.com
 

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Aeneas

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I looked a bit more on the Sea ice data for the Arctic to see if one can extract more out of the info or if there are any trends to be gleaned or if the sea ice is melting at an alarming rate 😨 Most years the Arctic reaches 13 million km2 covered with sea ice. So I took that as a criteria and checked out when was the first day and the last day when the Arctic was covered with 13 million km2 and also the number of days above 13 million km2. Below are 3 graphs detailing the findings, which all are taken from Nansen data sets found here.

Arctic sea ice trends.gif
The first day and the last day in the above graphs are given as numbers. This year the first day above 13 million km2 came on the 38th day. I am not sure if the trend lines can be taken at face value as I don't know how much the years without reaching the criteria, thus registering a 0 in the column, plays into the trend line.

As can be seen then 4 years ( 2006, 2007, 2017, 2018) did not meet the criteria. The sooner the first day comes, the greater the chance of stacking up the number of days above 13 million km3.

What the data does not appear to support is a catastrophic irreversible melting of the Arctic sea ice. It appears fairly resilient and has perhaps turned the corner towards colder times. The next few years will be interesting to follow.
 

Sergey

Jedi
Good evening.
Now it's so cold in Mongolia that over 55,000 cattle have frozen to death.


Mongolia is currently suffering from extreme winter weather. These so-called Zudis have killed over 55,700 cattle in 3 months.
"Zud"- is a Mongolian term that describes a cold winter after a dry summer that kills an incredible amount of livestock by starving or freezing to death.

The Department of Agriculture explained in its statement that: a total of 55,764 animals have died in 11 Sumy (type of administrative district in Mongolia) of our province since the end of last year due to severe winter weather. Heavy snowfalls have hit the province 16 times since early November.

To cope with this unprecedented situation, the authorities are distributing grass and feed free of charge to local pastoralists.

Meanwhile, 60% of the country's territory is buried under the snow and more than 80 soums in 15 provinces are experiencing Zud or close to it conditions.
 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
New from the MOSAiC project taking place in the Arctic Ocean
The Russian icebreaker Kapitan Dranitsyn was slowed for days by sea ice as she made her way to the North Pole to support the MOSAiC expedition icebreaker Polarstern, and she now requires assistance before returning. The icebreaker Admiral Makarov departed from Murmansk on March 3 with fuel for the vessel.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ai...:345362/mmsi:273148110/vessel:ADMIRAL MAKAROV but at the time of posting it was still near Murmansk, if the data was correct. The journey for Kapitan Dranitsyn was planned to be two to three weeks, but it took longer.

Experts from 20 nations are studying the Arctic for a year on the German icebreaker Polarstern as she drifts across the Arctic Ocean, trapped in the sea ice. Kapitan Dranitsyn set sail to exchange crew and researchers on the Polarstern on February 3, reaching the vessel on February 28.
[...]
Kapitan Dranitsyn sailed from the Norwegian seaport of Tromso. The route ran through the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean in the most difficult weather conditions. The air temperature dropped to minus 33 degrees Celcius. Perennial ice, ice, snow and strong compression made it difficult for the ship to move. From time to time, she had to wait for improvements in wind and ice conditions, rebuild the optimal safe route and bypass heavy ice sections. On such days, Captain Dranitsyn traveled less than 20 miles.
[...]
In addition, with the aid of helicopter laser-scanner readings, Polarstern’s radar system and buoys, the researchers have been able to observe how the ice deformed and channels opened and closed again. Thanks to the warming of the Arctic Ocean, smaller and thinner ice floes are becoming more common. Driven by the wind, they can collide and overlap, producing pack ice hummocks up to four meters tall. Since a great deal of their mass lies underwater, some hummocks are 20 to 30 meters thick – a phenomenon that now represents a challenge for the resupply icebreakers.

In contrast, readings taken on the ice, on board ship, and with weather balloons revealed that the air temperature just above the ice was far lower than at a height of 20 meters. In the lowermost 10 meters there can be temperature differences of more than four degrees Celsius, which has a major influence on the increase in ice thickness.
[...]
There is quite a lot of life in the north:
ROV dives showed marine life under the ice. “We’ve never had the opportunity to study the zooplankton and polar cod up here so extensively at this time of year. In February we even repeatedly saw a seal under the ice, which is apparently finding sufficient food, despite being practically at the North Pole. And on the surface, we sighted a polar bear and several Arctic foxes,” says Christian Haas, Professor Christian Haas from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Chief Scientist for the second leg of the Polarstern journey.

Over the next few weeks the sea ice is expected to become even denser, and the next crew exchange, in April, will most likely be done by plane.
 

thorbiorn

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Recently a scientist, Freeman Dyson, who challenged the current climate politics passed away. Here is an article about him including what some prominent US papers "qualified their descriptions to reinforce the ruling dogma.
[...]By ROBERT BRYC [...]March 4, 2020 3:31 PM
Freeman Dyson in 2007 (Monroem/via Wikimedia/CC BY-SA 3.0)He endorsed the ‘humanist ethic.’
The death of physicist Freeman Dyson on February 28 has been noted by many publications, all of which highlighted his many contributions to science. Dyson, 96, was, without doubt, a genius. He was a polymath whose interests included mathematics, number theory, biology, physics, nuclear energy, space travel, weaponry, and arms control.

While all of those accomplishments are important, Dyson’s view of climate change — or rather, his view on carbon dioxide, economic development, and what he called “the humanist ethic” — also helped spark a new type of environmentalism, one that rejects the idea that carbon dioxide is the supreme villain.

Dyson was a skeptic on the issue of catastrophic climate change, a fact that was prominently noted in the obituaries published in the Washington Post and the New York Times. The Post called it his “apostasy on global warming.” It went on, saying that while Dyson did not “deny the Earth was warming,” he broke ranks because he didn’t believe “global warming is particularly dangerous.” That view, the Post said, “is not shared by the overwhelming majority of scientists.” The Times said Dyson “confounded the scientific establishment by dismissing the consensus about the perils of man-made climate change.”
Dyson could afford to be a skeptic. Few academics dare to break from the orthodoxy on climate change because the pressure to hew to the majority view is so intense. For proof of that, look no further than the experiences of Judith Curry at Georgia Tech or of Roger Pielke Jr. at the University of Colorado, both of whom were effectively blacklisted for questioning that orthodoxy. Dyson had no such qualms. His position at Princeton’s Institute for Advanced Study, where he spent more than 60 years, was secure. That job security, and his own long history in science and physics, allowed him to carve his own path on climate issues. In 2007, he published an essay at Edge.org that is perhaps even more relevant today than when it was published.

In the very first line, Dyson made his skepticism clear: “My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models.” He went on, saying that the climate models “do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand.”
 

itellsya

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I was reminded of this recent article when i saw one of our pear trees had just come into bloom, as have some of the cherry trees - we're in the south-west of France.

SevereWeather.eu is predicting a cold snap for parts of Europe around 25th March with temperatures plunging 15degreesC below average. If this does occur, then it notes European fruit harvest and could be badly effected, particularly because the mild winter and unusually warm weather recently may have been already been encouraging the early blossoming of fruit trees and so a sudden hard frost could damage the produce to come.

This already appears to be a concern for the US too, noted both in the snippet below and here: Spring arriving earlier across the US throwing wildlife into disarray -- Sott.net

It remains a prediction for the moment, but having been such a mild winter, i'm kind of expecting it to turn at some point, even if it's not that dramatic, as it seemed to do last year.

Apparently farmers here expect frosts up to April 21st (something like that) but with fruit trees, unless they're spraying some kind of chemical on them to delay blooming, i'm not sure they have as much control over them as farmers do with planting. And most of us have probably seen the pictures of the grape vines being kept warm by fires.

Anyway, overall it's just a reminder of how these shifts in weather patterns are disrupting life on earth and our food supply.

Snippet from the article below:

Global models are for now still a bit uncertain what track the deep upper low will take. While both the European ECMWF model and the American GFS model are hinting a *very* significant cold outbreak for late March, there are some important differences. The ECMWF model spreads the core of the outbreak across eastern Europe, the Balkans and Mediterranean, the GFS model is simulating the core more towards central Europe. The event starts over the weekend across Russia, in response to a strengthening Rex block and an associated strong high-pressure system over the northern half of Europe. Through the early days next week, an Arctic cold air mass spreads across eastern Europe towards central Europe, the Balkan peninsula and further southwest into the Mediterranean. Both models are expecting 10-15 °C colder temperatures than normal – that is *very* extreme for the end of March! Important differences between both models appear by mid next week where the GFS model maintains extremely cold weather across central Europe while the ECMWF model pushes the cold into the Mediterranean. Attached are the side-by-side comparison maps by ECMWF and GFS models:

gfs_T2ma_eu_32

The developing very warm weather across a large part of Europe with daytime temperatures above 20 °C this week will additionally boost the blossoming of fruit trees until the weekend, especially across east-central Europe and part of Balkan peninsula. The Arctic cold blast will then make the blossoming trees extremely vulnerable to dangerous morning frosts, also the overall much lower temperatures.
 
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