The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

iamthatis

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Screen Shot 2022-01-19 at 6.24.37 AM.png

The latest projection of sunspots in our cycle, from Suspicious Observers. You can see the sun is much more active (blue line) than what was expected (red line). So what are the implications?

We're seeing plenty of Ice Age symptoms, as compiled in this thread - huge snow load, mass flooding in warmer areas, ice sheet growth.

So despite the sun's increased activity again, will we see the above continue? Does the Ice Age still Cometh?

More 'solar wind' means a reduced influx of cosmic rays that nucleate clouds via radiation. But there's still plenty of volcanoes and fireballs happening to increase the atmospheric dust, leading to heavy water from the skies.

Then there's the gulf stream - it's already pretty much shot, and I don't know if it will recover and bathe Western Europe in its life-giving warmth again.

Jet stream variability seems to correspond to sun activity, with a quiet sun correlating to a very erratic jet stream. So perhaps with a reawakening sun, the jet stream will normalize somewhat, and there will be fewer instances of Arctic air masses pouring South.

The renewed activity of the sun also doesn't bode well for a Carrington-style event, in particular with Earth's magnetic field weakening.

It is literally chilling to think that all of what we've witnessed so far is only the beginning of the Earth changes events that typify an Ice Age!
 

Chad

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
Youtube account Night Lights Films - Adrien Mauduit, who seems to know what they're talking about, claims to have filmed 2 hours worth of 'very rare type II polar stratospheric clouds' over Tromsø, Norway.

Pretty sure there's been a number of reports of similar sightings on SOTT in recent years. In the last week or so there's been a couple of posts of recent PSC sighting as well.

According to wiki:

  • Type II clouds, which are very rarely observed in the Arctic, have cirriform and lenticular sub-types [9] and consist of water ice only.[4]

Only Type II clouds are necessarily nacreous[1] whereas Type I clouds can be iridescent under certain conditions, just as any other cloud. The World Meteorological Organization no longer uses the alpha-numeric nomenclature seen in this article, and distinguishes only between super-cooled stratiform acid-water PSCs and cirriform-lenticular water ice nacreous PSCs.[

Below is the video and the accompanying, informative, blurb:



1642886842470.png


Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are clouds in the winter polar stratosphere at altitudes of 15,000–25,000 m (49,000–82,000 ft). They are best observed during civil twilight, when the Sun is between 1 and 6 degrees below the horizon, as well as in winter and in more northerly latitudes.[1] One main type of PSC is made up mostly of supercooled droplets of water and nitric acid and is implicated in the formation of ozone holes.[2] The other main type consists only of ice crystals which are not harmful. This type of PSC is also referred to as nacreous (/ˈneɪkriəs/, from nacre, or mother of pearl, due to its iridescence).

Yesterday (17th of January 2022), the northern regions of Scandinavia were treated to a very rare high-altitude spectacle. For about 2 hours, rare polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) type II appeared out of nowhere, displaying a staggering iridescence contrasting with the dimmer twilight of the short polar days.

PSCs are also called mother-of-pearl clouds or nacreous clouds because their iridescence (diffraction of sunlight in tiny ice particles) is some of the strongest in clouds on Earth. Their strong colors are very visible with naked eyes, making the experience surreal, almost straight out of a fairy tale. They are also some of the highest clouds on Earth, forming around 15-30km in altitude in very precise conditions, limiting their occurrence. It needs to be extremely cold up there (below 78°C), which can only be satisfied in the winter months above polar regions where the stratosphere is at its coldest. There, tiny ice particles (along with other chemicals present in type I) nucleate and form over mountain ranges because of vertical shears/strong winds to form lenticular structures (type II).

I filmed those in a rush yesterday between snow showers, as a friend gave me the heads up. I used a long focal length to really try and emphasize their iridescence. In one of the sequences, you can also see Jupiter hang above the clouds (top left corner!), as well as an airplane flying by! All was shot with the Sony a7rII at a focal length of 200-600mm (Sony). All post production was made in FCPX. I hope you like the movie as much as I liked shooting and processing it and I thank everyone of you for your support. All content is of course copyrighted Night Lights Films (except sountrack licensed through Artlist, see credits for title and artist), and no footage can be used in any way without our prior consent /permission. Please contact us at nightlightsfilms@gmail.com for media and purchase inquiry. Please share and comment if you liked the video and follow me for more videos like this one! More at nightlightsfilms.com. Thanks for watching and don't forget to subscribe!!
 

cope

Dagobah Resident
View attachment 53827

The latest projection of sunspots in our cycle, from Suspicious Observers. You can see the sun is much more active (blue line) than what was expected (red line). So what are the implications?
I heard rumours of undercounting spots in 2019, thus i guess the max would be in 2025, a year earlier. The dromedary shape comes from Jupiter and Saturnus being inline with the sun. Then the curve max would turnout lower, like 80, and activity would bottom out in 2030. Wait and see.
 

Chad

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
The latest projection of sunspots in our cycle, from Suspicious Observers. You can see the sun is much more active (blue line) than what was expected (red line). So what are the implications?

On the 12th of Jan, Space Weather.com gave a few more details on this unexpectedly strong sun spot activity; says it is more than two times stronger than forecast; exceeding forecasts for 15 months straight; the highest in more than 5 years; aurora activity is more intense and at lower latitudes; 'geomagnetic activity has nearly tripled since the new solar cycle began'.

Whether this unexpected turn of events is due to external factors (comets - added: such as Megacomet Bernardinelli-Bernstein
/nemesis) and it will suddenly slump, i don't know.

It did however also bring to mind this prediction of a terminator event, which, whilst it may off, maybe there's something to it, since this cycle is, for now, stronger than predicted; as i think the Terminator theory proposes. I don't know enough about it to say either way, but i've included some of the details in the 2nd quote for reference for those that do have a better understanding:

New sunspot counts from NOAA confirm that the young solar cycle is outperforming the official forecast. You are here:
sunspot count solar cycle 25
Sunspot counts have exceeded predictions for 15 straight months. The monthly value at the end of December 2021 was more than twice the forecast, and the highest in more than 5 years.

The "official forecast" comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and International Space Environmental Services (ISES). Using a variety of leading indicators, the Panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 as a relatively weak cycle, similar in magnitude to its predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be stronger.

Sky watchers have already noticed the change. "We are definitely seeing the effects on the ground in the Arctic!" reports Chad Blakley of the Swedish tour guide service Lights over Lapland. "Auroras now are the best in years."

solar cycle 25 aurora x flare
(A) The first X-flare of Solar Cycle 25 on July 3, 2021; (B) A radio blackout caused by an X-flare on Oct. 28, 2021; (C) Auroras over Wisconsin photographed by Marybeth Kiczenski on Nov. 4, 2021.
Indeed, geomagnetic activity has nearly tripled since the new solar cycle began. In 2020, the first full year of Solar Cycle 25, there were 9 days with at least minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storms. That number skyrocketed to 25 days in 2021. One of those "storm days" (Nov. 4, 2021) was a borderline G4-class (severe) event with auroras sighted as far south as California and New Mexico.

Another sign of increasing solar activity is the X-flare. X-flares are the most powerful type of solar flare. They can cause strong radio blackouts, pepper Earth's atmosphere with energetic particles, and herald intense geomagnetic storms. The sun produced zero of these flares from late 2017 until mid-2021. Solar Cycle 25 busted the drought on July 3, 2021, with an X1.6 category explosion, followed by an X1-flare on Oct. 28, 2021.



Comment:Interestingly, two particularly memorable events occurred within 24 hours of the X-flare:


Two down, 98 to go? Typical 11-year solar cycles produce more than 100 X-flares during the years around Solar Max. Stay tuned for updates as Solar Cycle 25 intensifies. Solar Cycle 25 sunspot count exceeds expectations for 15 straight months - NOAA -- Sott.net

Terminator event:

"If the Terminator Event happens soon, as we expect, new Solar Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since record-keeping began," says McIntosh.

This is, to say the least, controversial. Most solar physicists believe that Solar Cycle 25 will be weak, akin to the anemic Solar Cycle 24 which barely peaked back in 2012-2013.
Orthodox models of the sun's inner magnetic dynamo favor a weak cycle and do not even include the concept of "terminators."

"What can I say?" laughs McIntosh. "We're heretics!"

The researchers outlined their reasoning in a December 2020 paper in the research journal Solar Physics. Looking back over 270 years of sunspot data, they found that Terminator Events divide one solar cycle from the next, happening approximately every 11 years. Emphasis on approximately. The interval between terminators ranges from 10 to 15 years, and this is key to predicting the solar cycle. "We found that the longer the time between terminators, the weaker the next cycle would be," explains Leamon. "Conversely, the shorter the time between terminators, the stronger the next solar cycle would be."

Example: Sunspot Cycle 4 began with a terminator in 1786 and ended with a terminator in 1801, an unprecedented 15 years later. The following cycle, 5, was incredibly weak with a peak amplitude of just 82 sunspots. That cycle would become known as the beginning of the "Dalton" Grand Minimum.

Solar Cycle 25 is shaping up to be the opposite. Instead of a long interval, it appears to be coming on the heels of a very short one, only 10 years
since the Terminator Event that began Solar Cycle 24. Previous solar cycles with such short intervals have been among the strongest in recorded history.
 
Last edited:

iamthatis

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
On the 12th of Jan, Space Weather.com gave a few more details on this unexpectedly strong sun spot activity; says it is more than two times stronger than forecast; exceeding forecasts for 15 months straight; the highest in more than 5 years; aurora activity is more intense and at lower latitudes; 'geomagnetic activity has nearly tripled since the new solar cycle began'.

Whether this unexpected turn of events is due to external factors (comets - added: such as Megacomet Bernardinelli-Bernstein
/nemesis) and it will suddenly slump, i don't know.

It did however also bring to mind this prediction of a terminator event, which, whilst it may off, maybe there's something to it, since this cycle is, for now, stronger than predicted; as i think the Terminator theory proposes. I don't know enough about it to say either way, but i've included some of the details in the 2nd quote for reference for those that do have a better understanding:



Terminator event:

Yeah, it's all shaping up much differently than I... anticipated. Good ol' anticipation! Sigh. And I don't know if that's a sigh of relief or something else.

I've been keeping that Terminator-event article in mind while keeping an eye on both Sol and also Ice Age symptoms reporting. When first reading the article, I was initially hit with a nice dose of 'what-the-heck'. Is this disinfo? Or does it indicate that a full-blown Ice Age may not be as imminent as I thought?

For instance, would it be reasonable to suspect a slower decline into Ice Age conditions? With the end of our current solar max in year 2030 being the most viable 'chaos point', ie. a steep drop into deep cold?

It's hard to say what the solar increase will mean, given cometary visitors, as you point out, too. There are many, many factors at play, and I hadn't thought of Bernardenelli-Bernstein as a player in this drama. Thanks for pointing that out!

Another one that I forgot to mention in my attempted 'forecasting' post is the all-important Beaufort Gyre. This may be the mechanism that truly shuts down the AMOC, and ushers in the long winter. I don't know how the solar uptick would affect the Gyre, though. Maybe I'll ask Mr. Cap Allon?

This info below may be old hat for many people, but I'm finding it very useful these days to not take in so much new information as to go over what I 'think' I know with a finer detail of analysis.

Polar oceanographer Andrey Proshutinsky of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution has labeled this anticipated surge of water a “ticking climate bomb,” noting that even a partial flush of that growing reservoir –a mere 5 percent– could temporarily cool the climate of Iceland and northern Europe. A larger outflow would actually threaten to shutdown the Gulf Stream, an event that would see ice age conditions sweep Northern and Western Europe almost overnight.

gulf-stream.jpg
The Gulf Stream is key to Europe having the mild, habitable climate that it does.

We know this occurs, and have detailed records of a relatively recent event: during the 1960s and 1970s, a surge of fresh Arctic water was released that cooled the top half-mile of parts of the North Atlantic. Known as the Great Salinity Anomaly, British oceanographer Robert R. Dickson said the event represented one of the most persistent and extreme variations in global ocean climate observed during the past century. The surge of ice and freshwater cooled Northern Europe dramatically and disrupted the North Atlantic food chain. Between 1951 and 2010, many of Europe’s exceptionally cold winters occurred during the period of the Great Salinity Anomaly.

The discussed mechanism is believed, by many, to be the ice age trigger, and a newly published scientific paper only adds further support. Entitled, “Evidence for extreme export of Arctic sea ice leading the abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age, the new study combines marine sediment cores drilled from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic. These records reveal that an abrupt increase in Arctic sea ice and cold freshwater exported to the North Atlantic starting around 1300, peaking in mid-century, and ending abruptly in the late 1300s. Crucially, the paper concludes that external forcing from volcanoes or any other cause may not be necessary for large swings in climate to occur — a previously widely held assumption: “These results strongly suggest that these things can occur out of the blue due to internal variability in the climate system,” said Dr. Martin Miles, researcher in the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado.

The climate jigsaw continues, albeit slowly, to be pieced together.

The next bout of severe cooling is due –climate is cyclic, never linear– and the release of the Beaufort Gyre, in line with a rapidly waning magnetosphere and an intensifying Grand Solar Minimum, hold all the keys necessary.
 

N1mTzo

Jedi
Snow Apocalypse In the South of Russia: Krasnodar breaks records, and in Tuapse snowdrifts are the size of a human being


Extreme snowfall hit the Krasnodar Territory on January 22. However, it was on the 23rd that the storm struck the main blow. It seems that the inhabitants of the region have never seen such an amount of snow. Half-meter snowdrifts have grown on the streets, in yards, in parks and squares.
- This is a real snow apocalypse! - say the inhabitants of the Kuban, publishing another video with the consequences of the elements.
The reason for such a snowy disgrace was immediately two cyclones - "Ida" and "Elpis". The first brought cold air from the north to the shores of the Black Sea, and the second - moist air masses. As a result, powerful snow clouds hung over the Kuban, covering the region for more than a day now.
Several districts of the region suffered from bad weather at once. The situation is most serious now in the Tuapse district. The height of snowdrifts in some villages is the size of a human being. People make their own way.
Due to bad weather, the Shahumyan pass is still closed. Difficult road conditions have developed on dozens of tracks in the Krasnodar Territory. Therefore, drivers are asked to stay at home and refuse to travel in such bad weather.
- Giant snowdrifts formed in Krasnaya Polyana - 45 centimeters, in Kordon Laura - 102 centimeters, - says Evgeny Tishkovets, a leading specialist of the Phobos weather center. - In Goryachiy Klyuch, 112 centimeters fell, in the village of Gorny, Tuapse district - 141 centimeters.
wr-960.webp


PS. If you look at a map showing the height of the snow cover, you can see that Russia is covered with record snow from the very North (Murmansk) to the very South (Kranodar). The Urals and Western Siberia are also covered with snowdrifts.
b9559c7bff28becf1d4b0a6187bf158e_760x0_589.594.0.0.jpg
 

N1mTzo

Jedi
Snow fell for the first time in three decades in Antalya, Turkey

In the central part of the Turkish city of Antalya, known as one of the resorts popular among Russians, it snowed for the first time in 29 years, TASS reports.

Bad weather came to Turkey on January 21, the residents of Istanbul even had to temporarily stop using personal vehicles and some flights. The amount of snow in some places reached 60 centimeters.
Government agencies have urged residents of areas where precipitation is particularly heavy not to leave their homes unless absolutely necessary.
According to weather forecasts, Istanbul residents will have to endure precipitation at least until the end of the week, although on January 26 the snowfall should become less intense.
At the moment, several traffic jams have formed on the republican highways due to the uncleaned roadbed and accidents. The road from Istanbul to Ankara was also blocked for several hours.

-------------------------------------
In neighboring Greece, the situation is not much better than in Turkey. Athens is buried in snow (about 40 centimeters):



----------------------------------

At the same time, in the far north of Europe, the weather seems to be going crazy the other way:
In Murmansk (Russia) on January 24, a temperature record was set. At noon the thermometer showed +5.2. The previous absolute maximum of the day was +3.3 (1992). At the same time, 2.5 thousand km to the south, in snowy Rostov-on-Don, it was -6.8.
From the point of view of logic, it seems that the climate has turned upside down. In part, this is true: the Arctic cold has poured south, while the subtropical heat is carried out in the Arctic.
The attached weather map from the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts shows the weekly anomaly in air temperature from 24 to 31 January. The positive (red) anomaly is clearly visible in the north and in the center of Europe, while the south of Eastern Europe is colored in cold (blue) tones.

20220124141901-88b71aa19c65b794951100b8abd98731a1b6566a-640x576.png

 

Mari

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Croatian meteo portal says that a temperature record was broken in Montenegro, with this morning's low of -33.2 °C.

The morning was very cold throughout the region, and in Montenegro the absolute temperature record fell. According to Montenegrin media, the country has the lowest air temperature in the history of measurements.

In the town of Kosanica in the municipality of Pljevlja, frigid -33.2 °C was measured this morning
, confirmed Dušan Pavićević, director of the Meteo Center. The previous record was held by Rožaja in the north of the country, where in 1985 -32 ° C was measured.

A very cold morning was recorded throughout BiH. The following locations are singled out, Sokolac (-23.3 ° C), Bjelašnica (-19.3 ° C), Kupres (-16.7 ° C)… (PR / IM).

1643121053313.png
Kosanica this morning, photo: vijesti.me
 

iamthatis

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
At the same time, in the far north of Europe, the weather seems to be going crazy the other way: In Murmansk (Russia) on January 24, a temperature record was set. At noon the thermometer showed +5.2. The previous absolute maximum of the day was +3.3 (1992). At the same time, 2.5 thousand km to the south, in snowy Rostov-on-Don, it was -6.8.
From the point of view of logic, it seems that the climate has turned upside down. In part, this is true: the Arctic cold has poured south, while the subtropical heat is carried out in the Arctic.
The attached weather map from the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts shows the weekly anomaly in air temperature from 24 to 31 January. The positive (red) anomaly is clearly visible in the north and in the center of Europe, while the south of Eastern Europe is colored in cold (blue) tones.

20220124141901-88b71aa19c65b794951100b8abd98731a1b6566a-640x576.png


I remember reading this recently:

Also not addressed is NASA’s longstanding research showing that while Earth’s overall temperature trends colder during prolonged bouts of low solar activity (such as today’s descent into the next Grand Solar Minimum, which likely commenced during Solar Cycle 24), not all regions experience the chill. As visualized in NASA’s ‘Maunder Minimum Reconstruction Map’ (shown below), areas such as the Arctic, Alaska and the North Atlantic actually warm during spells of otherwise ‘global’ cooling.

Temp change between 1780 (a year of normal solar activity) and 1680 (a year within the depths of the Maunder Minimum) — NASA.

Perhaps in this next phase of global cooling, depending on global air and water currents, Russia and Scandinavia will actually enjoy some more warmth as well? Fascinating!
 

Pierre

Administrator
Administrator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
It did however also bring to mind this prediction of a terminator event, which, whilst it may off, maybe there's something to it, since this cycle is, for now, stronger than predicted; as i think the Terminator theory proposes. I don't know enough about it to say either way, but i've included some of the details in the 2nd quote for reference for those that do have a better understanding:
Notice that similar spikes occurred during previous Solar cycles - see for example the red arrow during Solar cycle 24 - without them deviating from the smoothed average. In other terms, the spike might not announce a "terminator event":

sunspotcounts.png

Global cooling (ice Age) can due to several factors. Weak Solar Cycle is one factor (Maunder minimum for example) but irrespective of the amplitude on the Solar Cycle, you can have have an ice Age due cometary impacts (the younger Dryas, or closer to us the Late Antiquity Little Ice Age ca. 540 AD)
 
Last edited:

Chad

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
Notice that similar spikes occurred during previous Solar cycles - see for example the red arrow during Solar cycle 24 - without them deviating from the smoothed average. In other terms, the spike might not announce a "terminator event":

View attachment 53981

According the article i quoted, the actual data for 2020-21 "has exceeded predictions for 15 straight months.", whereas the spike in that graph for 2021 is 6 months? Can it be considered to be the same?

If these Terminator Events occur "from 10 to 15 years", it's ~11 years since that other spike?
 

Pierre

Administrator
Administrator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
According the article i quoted, the actual data for 2020-21 "has exceeded predictions for 15 straight months.", whereas the spike in that graph for 2021 is 6 months? Can it be considered to be the same?
Difficult to say, since we somehow compare apples with oranges. One should aware that predictions are just that and they are often subjected to multiple revisions, like for the Solar Cycle 24 (see image below). Researchers notice spikes relative to the projected Solar cycle 25, but these spikes are going to be less prominent when compared to the actual Solar cycle 25, since it outperforms they predictions.


Capture.JPG
 
Top Bottom