Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Ca.]

Solar Polar Fields Reversing, Big Quakes Ahead! - West Coast Flooding Brings Relief - Comet ZTF Data

Oppenheimer Ranch Project Premiered 110 minutes ago

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616463035622637569

Yakutsk, Russia, -58 degrees Fahrenheit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1616268821949464576

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 24/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6.4 event observed at 09:59 UTC from Region 3194 (S25W73)

There are currently 09 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3190, AR3191, AR3192, AR3194, AR3196, AR3197, AR3198 and AR3199 and new region AR3200 AR3195 is gone.

AR3200 located on the northeast (N21E47) is a group of 2csunspots with size 70HM and a beta magnetic field. It poses no threat for strong solar flares.

Currently all regions have stable magnetic fields except AR3190 that continues with a complexity beta-gamma-delta, however this region will leave the solar disk very soon.

A BIG UNSTABLE SUNSPOT: Giant sunspot AR3190 is turning away from Earth. It's still dangerous. The reason why is shown in this magnetic map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

The sunspot's primary dark core is actually a huge pole of negative (-) magnetism closely surrounded by multiple islands of positive (+) polarity. This is exactly how solar flares get started. When + and - bump together in close proximity, magnetic reconnection can cause tremendous explosions. AR3190 poses a threat for X-class solar flares.​

Even though AR3190 is not facing Earth, the broad spray of any X-flare will still illuminate our planet with X-rays and extreme UV radiation. Radio blackouts and other effects remain possible as long as we can see the departing sunspot. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 144 (54 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 45% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. The possibility of active regions generating M-class flares has been reduced.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553.8 km/s at 06:05 on January 23 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 07:00 UTC on January 24

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 0.6
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 476.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.6 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.5 below average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C6 at 04:26 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 144 (SN 166 Jan 23)

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 25/ 2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 14:35 UTC on January 24 from Region 3192 (N16W70)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617954546231443456

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618061825760952320

There are currently 09 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3190, AR3192, AR3194, AR3196, AR3197, AR3198, AR3199 and AR3200 and new region AR3201
AR3191 is gone

AR3201 located on the northeast (N25E58) is a sunspot with size 20HM and an alpha magnetic field it poses no threat for strong solar flares

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 127 (37 of these are grouped into 9 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. The possibility of active regions generating M-class flares has been reduced.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 16:4 on January 24 Maximum planetary index: Kp 2

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on January 25

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 459.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.97 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.5 below average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C9 at 04:53 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 127 (SN 144 Jan 24)
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a coronal hole could reach Earth on Jan. 25th.
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

WORLDWIDE EARTHQUAKE REPORT JANUARY 26/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. AR3190 said goodbye with two M-class flares. The largest solar event of the period was a M4.5 event observed at 10:11 UTC from Region 3190 (S14W89) it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Africa.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618203407403347973

https://twitter.com/x/status/1617624385183174656

M1.3 at 17:01 from AR3190 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South America

M2.0 at 22:36 from AR3192 it produced a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South East Asia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618222750677766147

There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3190, AR3192, AR3196, AR3197, AR3198, AR3199 and AR3200, AR3201 and new regions AR3202 and AR3203, AR3194 is gone.

AR3202 located on the northwest (N11W48) is a group of 5 sunspots with size 10HM and an beta magnetic field, it poses no threat for strong solar flares

AR3203 located on the northeast (N16E31) is a group of 3 sunspots with size 10HM and an beta magnetic field, it poses no threat for strong solar flares.


The northern hemisphere of the sun is peppered with small sunspots. None of them poses a threat for strong

The total number of sunspots has increased to 135 (40 of these are grouped into 10 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 30% chance for M flares and 10% chance for X flares. The possibility of active regions generating M-class flares has been reduced again.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535.6 km/s at 07:02 on January 25 Maximum planetary index: Kp 2

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618012011618787328

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 02:30 UTC on January 26

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 426.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.33 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.2 below average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: M2 at 22:36 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 135 (SN 126 Jan 25)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 27/2023

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.8 event observed at 13:06 UTC from AR3192. It generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over South Atlantic Ocean. With this M-Flare the region 3192 said goodbye.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618609371273129987

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3196, AR3197, AR3198, AR3199 and AR3200, AR3201, AR3202 and AR3203,

All regions present stable magnetic fields. Departing sunspot AR3190 is crackling with M-class solar flares.

FARSIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY: A partial halo CME (movie) that billowed over the sun's eastern limb earlier today may herald the approach of an active sunspot. Indeed, helioseismic echoes reveal a farside active region only 1 to 2 days behind the limb. SpaceWeather.com

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 104 (24 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 90% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. The possibility of active regions generating strong solar flares has been reduced given that AR3190 and AR3192 are now located behind the west limb.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 18:50 UTC on January 26 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 04:15 UTC on January 27

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 548.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 12.58 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.0 average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 23:30 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 104 (SN 134 Jan 26)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

THE THERMOSPHERE IS WARMING UP: When solar activity is high, Earth's upper atmosphere puffs up like a marshmallow held over a campfire. That's happening now. Since Solar Cycle 25 began, the Thermosphere Climate Index (TCI) has increased nearly 10-fold:​

​

TCI is a number published daily by NASA, which tells us how hot Earth’s upper atmosphere is. The thermosphere, the very highest layer of our atmosphere, literally touches space and is a sort of "first responder" to solar activity.

Linda Hunt of Science Systems and Applications, Inc. created the plot, above, which shows how TCI during Solar Cycle 25 compares to other solar cycles of the past. So far, the thermosphere is about twice as warm during Solar Cycle 25 as it was at the same point in the previous solar cycle: data.

"The sun is coming more alive now and looks ready to make a run at exceeding the max TCI of Solar Cycle 24," notes Dr. Marty Mlynczak of NASA.
As the thermosphere puffs up, it increases aerodynamic drag on Earth-orbiting satellites. Indeed, this is a key reason for the loss of dozens of Starlink satellites in Feb. 2022. If current trends continue, drag will increase even more as Solar Cycle 25 reaches its peak (Solar Maximum) in 2024 or 2025. Spaceweather.com Time Machine​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 28/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 0748 UTC

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3196, AR3198, AR3199, AR3200, AR3201, AR3202 and AR3203, AR3197 is gone


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 84 (14 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 35% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 14:38 UTC on January 27 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618795698857848836

● Current Conditions at 06:00 UTC on January 28

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 518 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.9 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.3 below average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 02:12 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 84 (SN 104 Jan 27)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

No planet X

SDO ECLIPSE SEASON: Take a look  at this

That's what the sun looked like this morning to NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). It means SDO eclipse season is underway. "Eclipse season" is a three-week period that comes twice a year near the equinoxes during which Earth blocks SDO's view of the sun for a short while (72 minutes at most) each day. The current season started on Jan. 20th and will be finished in mid-February. SpaceWeather.com

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619107119818735617

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618321656887537664

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618666267032055814

Goodbye Big Flares, Hello Green Comet | Space Weather News: 26 January 2023

TamithaSkov Jan 26, 2023

This week our Sun quiets down as the remaining two big flare players rotate to the Sun's farside. We are still dealing with a bit of fast solar wind from a coronal hole that is rotating through the Earth-strike zone, but it is underperforming thus far. Aurora photographers at high latitudes can get a show through the weekend, but those at mid-latitudes will likely need to wait for another week or so for a better chance. At least amateur radio operators and GPS users will appreciate the quiet as it means less noise on the radio bands and better reception of GPS signals over the coming week. Pilots and aviators alike will also relish the low risk for radiation storms, which means clear skies even for polar routes. Learn the details of this week's space weather and see what else our Sun has in store. Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more?

Premiered 7 hours ago

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 29/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 12:01 UTC on January 28 from Region 3200 (N21W15)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619536910892011520

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3196, AR3198, AR3199, AR3200, AR3201, AR3202, AR3203 and new regions AR3204 and AR3205. None poses a threat for strong solar flare. AR3202 is gone.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 76 (18 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 99% chance for C flares, 25% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. NOAA's forecast has reduced the likelihood of X-class flares because all regions have stable magnetic fields without sufficient energy for large eruptions. However, this may change next week:

BIG FARSIDE SUNSPOT: A big farside sunspot may be hiding just behind the sun's southeastern limb. Its location is marked by the big dark "echo" in this helioseismic map of the sun from NASA's Solar Dynamic Observatory:

This could be old sunspot AR3182, returning after a two-week trip around the farside of the sun. In early January, AR3182 produced an X1-class solar flare (movie) and multiple strong M-class flares. If it has indeed survived its farside transit, the potent sunspot could boost the chance of strong flares when it turns to face Earth again in February. SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619520760468611072

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 12:12 UTC on January 28 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 05:00 UTC on January 29

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 482.6 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.06 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: -0.3 below average
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 00:12 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 76 (SN 84 Jan 28)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 30/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 00: 12 UTC.

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3198, AR3199, AR3200, AR3201, AR3203, AR3204, AR3205 and new region AR3206 None poses a threat for strong solar flares. AR3196 and AR3202 are gone

The total number of sunspots has increased to 80 (25 of these are grouped into 8 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 80% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. NOAA's forecast has reduced the likelihood of strong flares because all regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 09:20 UTC on January 29 Maximum planetary index: Kp 2

Aurora Oval


● Current Conditions at 05:30 UTC on January 30

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 427.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.99 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +0.6 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 04:13 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 80 (SN 76 Jan 29)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

ANOTHER COMET IS APPROACHING THE SUN: Comet 96P/Machholz is falling toward the sun for a fiery close encounter inside the orbit of Mercury. This morning it entered the field of view of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) coronagraphs.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619879472374878208

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619881899215953921

The comet will remain in SOHO's field of view until Feb. 2nd, brightening (perhaps dramatically) is it approaches the sun for a 0.12 AU close encounter on Feb. 7th.​

96P is an oddball. It has a strangely-tilted orbit that takes it closer to the sun than any other known periodic comet. Its chemical composition is also unique. 96P lacks much of the carbon and cyanogen found in regular comets. Taken together, these facts have prompted some researchers to suggest that 96P might be an Alien.​

 

[Ca.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619905730420826112

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619802579403247620

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619938586639343616

https://twitter.com/x/status/1618975919837794306

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT JANUARY 31/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2.9 event observed at 17:53 UTC from AR3207 (S13E71)

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3201, AR3204, AR3205, AR3206 and new region AR3207
None poses a threat for strong solar flares.
AR3198, AR3199, AR3200, AR3203 are gone.


The total number of sunspots has decreased to 67 (17 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 75% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. NOAA's forecast has reduced the likelihood of strong flares because all regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505.7 km/s at 21:44 UTC on January 30 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 04:40 UTC on January 31

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 480.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.85 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.3 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C2 at 23:55 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 67 (SN 80 Jan 30)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

A LARGE COMET IS STREAKING TOWARD THE SUN (UPDATED): Comet 96P/Machholz is streaking toward the sun for a close encounter inside the orbit of Mercury. Coronagraphs onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) are monitoring its approach

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620157568097320960

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620032480035364864

This is no ordinary comet flyby. Most comets that fall toward the sun are small (~10 meters) and rapidly evaporate; SOHO has seen thousands of these doomed sungrazers. Comet 96P is different. Measuring 6 kilometers across, it is big enough to survive close proximity to the sun. Perihelion (closest approach to the sun) on Jan. 31st is only 0.12 AU away.​

Some researchers think 96P might be an Alien. Chemically, it is unlike other comets in the Solar System, lacking normal amounts of carbon and cyanogen. It also has a strangely-tilted orbit that takes it very close to the sun. Two orbits ago, unexpected fragments appeared ahead of the comet; researchers aren't sure how they were produced.​

"96P is a very atypical comet, both in composition and in behavior, so we never know exactly what we might see," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab in Washington DC. "Accordingly, we’re running a special observing program with SOHO to maximize the science return, so the normal flow of public coronagraph data will be slowed for a few days (to six images/hour). Hopefully we can get some beautiful science out of this and share with everyone as soon as we can."​

"By the way," adds Battams, "this comet is named for Don Machholz, who was an extraordinary ground-based 'amateur' astronomer, and also an extremely great guy. He passed away unexpectedly last year, so there's some poignancy to this passage of his 'premier' comet discovery--he made many."SpaceWeather.com​

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 01/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4.9 event observed at 11:00 UTC from AR3207 (S12E59)

Three X flares were recorded during January 2023.
X1.2 flare on January 05
X1.9 flare on January 09
X1.0 flare on January 10

SpaceWeatherlive Archive January 2023

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3201, AR3204, AR3205, AR3206 and AR3207 None poses a threat for strong solar flares.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 65 (20 of these are grouped into 5 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 75% chance for C flares, 15% chance for M flares and 5% chance for X flares. NOAA's forecast has reduced the likelihood of strong flares because all regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522.5 km/s at 13:42 UTC on January 31 Maximum planetary index: Kp 3

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 04:20 UTC on February 01

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 400.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.29 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.4 Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C1 at 01:28 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 65 (SN 67 Jan 31)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE STRATOSPHERE? Around the North Pole, the stratosphere has suddenly become very, very cold. NASA satellites are registering temperatures less than -85 C, the threshold for formation of rare polar stratospheric clouds (PSC). In the past few days, colorful PSCs have spilled outside the Arctic Circle, spreading as far south as Scotland. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for these clouds as the outbreak continues.SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620441454568165377

COMET 96P AT PERIHELION: Today, Comet 96P/Machholz is at perihelion, its closest approach to the sun. This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) to see the comet's rapid brightening as it gets blasted by solar heat:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620623161418223617

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620485794040549377

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620149876817547264

Comet 96P is only 0.12 AU from the sun. For comparison, Mercury is more than 3 times farther away. That means the comet is *hot*. However, heat is not the only reason the comet has brightened so much. Because 96P is almost directly between Earth and the sun, its can experience a phenomenon called "forward scattering." Ice and dust in the comet's tail scatters sunlight toward the Earth, boosting its brightness to a current value near magnitude +0. SpaceWeather.com

 

[mabar]

Here is a short video about electric comets and how it discharge the Sun:

So, would it be most probably that the discharging of the Sun due electric comets and or dwarf Sun may result in Sun's changes as Ben mentions in his video? Contrary to what he is posting as evidence that the Sun is going nova, though.

Evidence for distinctive changes in the solar wind helium abundance in cycle 24

The relative abundance of alpha particles with respect to proton, usually expressed as AHe = (nα/np)*100, is known to respond to solar activity although changes in its behaviour in the last four solar cycles are not known. In this letter, by systematically analysing inter-calibrated AHe data obtained from the first Lagrangian point of the Sun-Earth system, we show that AHe variations are distinctively different in solar cycle 24 as compared to the last three cycles. The frequency of AHe = 2-3% events is significantly higher in slow/intermediate solar winds in cycle 24 as opposed to the dominance of the typical AHe = 4-5% events in the previous three cycles. Further, the occurrence of AHe ≥ 10% events is significantly reduced in cycle 24. Not only that, the changes in delay of AHe with respect to peak sunspot numbers are less sensitive to changes in solar wind velocity in cycle 24. The investigation suggests that the coronal magnetic field configuration started undergoing systematic changes starting from cycle 23 and this altered magnetic field configuration affected the way helium got processed and depleted in the solar atmosphere.

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 02/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5.7 event observed at 22:48 UTC from AR3204 (N24W90)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620800262175854592

January 2023 monthly average sunspots was published by NOAA
Solar Cycle Pregression



Sunspot Number Monthly values: 143 .6
Predicted values: 63.4
Solar Flux Monthly values: 182.5
Predicted values: 100.4
January’s averages (SSN= 143; F10.7 = 182) are higher than any single month from cycle 24. We have more spots than predicted, but also those spots are more complex according to NOAA. So why did some regions with beta-gamma-delta configuration not burst into large flares? It's still a mystery... or is it?

There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3201, AR3204, AR3205, AR3206, AR3207 and new region AR3208 (N16E49) None poses a threat for strong solar flares.

The total number of sunspots has increased to 89 (29 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 75% chance for C flares, 10% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. NOAA's forecast has reduced the likelihood of strong flares because all regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482.9 km/s at 01:08 UTC on February 01 Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) threshold reached: 02:59 UTC on February 02 Maximum planetary index: Kp 4

WEAK CME IMPACT: An unexpected CME hit Earth's magnetic field today, Feb. 1st, at 18:54 UTC (data). This may have been one of many CMEs that left the sun in recent days (watch this movie) but which, initially, did not appear to be Earth directed. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible in response to the weak impact. SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval

● Current Conditions at 05:10 UTC on February 02

▪︎Geospace active
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 4
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 410.8 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.65 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +2.2% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C5 at 22:48 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 89 (SN 65 Feb 01)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

COMET 96P UPDATE

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620835824094048256

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620763221836828672

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620851495498579968

 

[Puma]

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT FEBRUARY 03/2023

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1.3 event observed at 14:12 UTC from AR3204 (N24W0)

There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk: AR3201, AR3206, AR3207and AR3208. Sunspot AR3207 (110HM, beta magnetic field, 10 sunspots located on the southeast) is growing but it does not yet pose a threat for strong flares.

AR3204 and AR3205 are gone.

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 56 (16 of these are grouped into 6 active regions) NOAA forecasts for the next 24h: 65% chance for C flares, 5% chance for M flares and 1% chance for X flares. NOAA's forecast has reduced the likelihood of strong flares because all regions have stable magnetic fields.

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 17:07 UTC on February 02 Maximum planetary index: Kp 4

"WEAK" CME IMPACT SPARKS AURORAS: An unexpected CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Feb. 1st at 18:54 UTC, causing a 10 nanoTesla jolt in magnetometer readings from Canberra, Australia. This is considered to be a weak impact. Nevertheless, it was enough to spark auroras around the Arctic Circle.

Aurora Oval

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620934540385722370

● Current Conditions at 04:10 UTC on February 03

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp 3
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 333.2 km/sec
▪︎density: 4.2 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: +1.9% Elevated
▪︎X-ray Solar Flare: C3 at 02:49 UTC
▪︎Sunspot number: 56 (SN 89 Feb 02)
SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com

GONE WITH THE SOLAR WIND

THE SOLAR FLYBY OF COMET 96P: Some comets like it hot--especially comet 96P/Machholz. The 6-km-wide dirty snowball just flew past the sun deep inside the orbit of Mercury and survived. Play this movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) to see the entire flyby. Researchers working with the SOHO data say they may have a surprise to share in the days ahead. Stay tuned! SpaceWeather.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620977530902659073

Meanwhile with C/2022 E3 ZTF

https://twitter.com/x/status/1620979419673399297