Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

XPan

The Living Force
The latest geomagnetic storm (G-1 Class)
8 July 2022

It is defined as one (not three) "minor, albeit long lasting G1- Class geomagnetic storm". Speaking of that, I tried to see something over Stockholm last night while working at the train depot... but nope, nothing - just a few faint noctilucent clouds were visible. It was likely too bright for auroras at our latitude this time of the year.

Impressive was however that it lasted quite a long time at KP index 5; each column shown as an estimated 3 hours average. It has however diminished down to just 11 GW as of writing.

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Spaceweather.com wrote following today 8 July 2022:

A CRACK IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD:

Yesterday, July 7th, a crack opened in Earth's magnetic field--and it stayed open for nearly 14 hours. Solar wind poured through the gap to fuel a minor albeit long-lasting G1-class geomagnetic storm. Robert Snache [below] photographed the glow from Ramara Township in Ontario, Canada:
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"This was the first aurora I have been able to capture in a long time!!" says Snache.

The crack was opened by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), which hit Earth's magnetic field during the early hours of July 7th. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving streams of solar wind. They contain shock waves that often cause geomagnetic storms. NOAA analysts think a CME might have been embedded in the solar wind just ahead of the CIR, thus delivering a double blow.​
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 08

G1 geomagnetic storm keept on earth until approximately 06:00 UTC on July 08.
The magnetosphere was in minor storm (Kp=5) or disturbed (Kp=4) for almost 18 hours.

For practical reasons the Kp-index is calculated in 3-hour periods due to variations in the magnetic field conditions and solar wind speed. In reality the first geomagnetic storm period lasted approximately 8 hours after which it subsided (yellow bar) to return to a Kp-index =5. This were the four periods (red bar) registered although in reality were a long storm that subsided for a moment.

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GEOMAGNETIC STORM RESUMES: A co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth's magnetic field on July 7th, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm. The storm subsided for a while, but now it's happening again. SpaceWeather.com

The solar activity with respect to solar flares remained technically at low levels.

There was a slight decrease in the number of sunspots due to the fact that the active regions 3047, 3048, 3049, 3050 have disappeared from the solar disk. The AR3053 and AR3055 regions produced solar flares class C1.0 and C1.4 respectively.

AR3053 is one big sunspot with a alfa magnetic field located on the northeast with a size of 180MH (larger than the Earth) This sunspot has a 35% chance of producing a class C eruption a 10% of producing a class M eruption and 1% of a strong class X

Update AR3053 It is now a colossal 680MH sunspot composed of a group of 11 sunspots.

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Prominence eruption on the southwest

Current Conditions at 14:00 UTC July 06

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 407.3 km/sec
▪︎density: 9.42 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.1% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 88 (SN 92 Jul 07)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=3 quiet

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 09

According to GOES satellite data, x-rays remain at B1 (quiet) levels but the probability of a C class flares is high with a 75% while for M and X flares the probability is 20% and 1% respectively.

The long duration M2.3 solar flare from AR3053 began at exactly 20:30 on July 08 and peaked to M2.57 at 20:49 New images of the event show an associated CME toward Earth

LONG-DURATION SOLAR FLARE AND CME: Big sunspot AR3053 exploded on July 8th (2049 UT), producing a long duration M2.5-class solar flare: movie. Radiation from the flare caused a minor shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific side of North America: map. Newly-arriving data from SOHO suggest that the explosion also hurled a partial halo CME toward Earth. If confirmed, the CME would likely arrive on July 11th and could cause G1-class geomagnetic storms. SpaceWeather.com

Long duration C1.5 solar flare from AR3051 located on the northwest began at 06:41 july 09 and peaked at 06:50. No CME associated

Six regions remain on the solar disk

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SpaceWeatherlive.com

Current Conditions at 13:03 UTC July 09

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 375.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.3 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.7% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 81 (SN88 Jul 08)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1 quiet
▪︎Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on July 13.

 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 10

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8.

X-Ray background is rising according to GOES satellite. The probability of a C class flares (small) is high with a 90% while for M (strong) and X (Big) flares the probability is 35% and 10% respectively. Lots of low-level C flares yesterday as seen in the graphic (orange lines) The C flares were all from different regions
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SpaceWeatherlive.com

AR3047 that was a plage generated a class C8.5 flare (biggest yesterday) on the southwest side and there was a type II radio emission.

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
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The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 21:10 UTC July 08

Current Conditions at 13:43 UTC July 10

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 384.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 11.62 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.9% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 88 (SN81 Jul 09)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
▪︎Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on July 13.
UPDATED CME FORECAST: A partial halo CME that left the sun on July 8th (movie) might not hit Earth after all. A new analysis by NOAA suggests a near miss on July 11th instead of the hoped-for glancing blow. Near misses can still spark geomagnetic activity, but this updated forecast lowers the odds of a full-fledged geomagnetic storm. SpaceWeather.com
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 11

Solar activity has been at moderated levels for the past 24 hours and is expected to be so with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on the next 72 hours

The largest solar events of the period were two M class flares from AR3056 located on the southeast limb. The first event was a M1.3 event observed at 23:55 UTC The second event was a M1.1 observed at 09:26

Moderate solar flare M1.3 from new sunspot generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Asia and North Pacífic Ocean
Moderate solar flare M1.1 generated a Minor R1 Radio blackout over Central Asia and Europe

There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. AR3056 and AR3057 are new regions

AR3056 is a group of 9 sunspots located S18E60 with a beta-delta magnetic field and size 200 MH This sunspot has a high probability of generate C class flares (60%) and M flares (30%) in the past 24 hours has generated four C-class flares and two M-class flares

AR3057 is a group of 2 sunspots located N15E74 with a beta magnetic field and size 180 MH This sunspot has a low probability of generate C class flares (20%)

AR3053 (size 460 MH) and AR3055 (size 630 MH) are the biggest sunspots on the solar disk with a high probability of generate C class flares (65% and 80% respectively)
ACTIVE SUN: Spoiler alert: Something on the sun is about to explode. "There is an incredible-looking sunspot crossing the center of the solar disk and a new large dark core has just appeared on the limb," reports Illinois astronomer Apollo Lasky, who photographed the seething starscape:
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The active regions in Lasky's video are mostly new. They either appeared for the first time or ballooned in size from an existiing spot over the weekend. One of them, sunspot AR3055, is truly awesome, stretching more than 100,000 km from end to end with more than a dozen dark cores. It is almost directly facing Earth, and poses a threat for strong flares. SpaceWeather.com

Plasma Filament eruption on the southeastern limb

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet level for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 08:35 July 10

Current Conditions at 13:04 UTC July 11

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 349.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 7.49 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.0% High
▪︎Sunspot number: 113 (SN 88 Jul 09)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
▪︎Solar wind flowing from this equatorial coronal hole should reach Earth on July 13.

Solar and auroral reports
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 12

▪︎Solar activity

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.1 event observed at 09:26 UTC from Region 3056 (S15E65 see july 10 report) but X-Ray background is rising according to GOES satellite. Low-level C flares yesterday from AR3053 and AR3056 yesterday.

The probability of a C class flares (small) is high with a 99% while for M (strong) and X (Big) flares the probability is 50% and 15% respectively.

There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

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SpaceWeather.com

Solar Filaments eruptions on the western limb


Several huge filaments of magnetiism

These structures are irregular tubes of magnetism holding masses of plasma above the surface of the sun. They look dark because they are cooler than the underlying star. Relatively cooler. If you could pull one off the sun and hold it up in the night sky, it would glow more brightly than a full Moon. SpaceWeather.com

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 10:33 UTC july 11

Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp=4) were reached at 19:28 UTC july 11 and 12:01 UTC july 12 RIght now we are at G1 geomagnetic storm (kp=5). The minor geomagnetic storm began at 13:32 UTC due to a high speed stream from two small coronal holes

Current Conditions at 15:05 UTC July 12

▪︎Geospace disturbed
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=5 storm
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 500.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 10.04 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.0% High
▪︎Sunspot number: 134 (SN 113 Jul 11)

Solar and auroral reports
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 13

▪︎Solar activity

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 03:28 july 12 from Region 3056 (S16E37).

X-Ray background according to GOES data continues in level C flares for the next 24 hours

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3052, AR3053, AR3055, AR3056 and AR3057

AR3052 region disappeared while the AR3051 region (N28W89) is a sunspot-free plage. For the moment there are no new regions

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 17:49 UTC july 12

MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A brief G1-class geomagnetic storm erupted on July 12th when Earth entered a stream of fast-moving solar wind. Shock-like discontinuities in the solar wind data suggest that at least one minor CMEs might have been embedded in the stream. No auroras have been reported, probably because of full moonlight. SpaceWeather.com

Current Conditions at 13:17 UTC July 13

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp= 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 494 km/sec
▪︎density: 5.9 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 1.8% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 117 (SN 134 Jul 12)

Solar and auroral reports
 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
From SOHO C3 image.
A bright Kreutz group comet from the lower right of the sun. Blooming is Mercury.

The Kreutz sungrazers are a family of sungrazing comets, characterized by orbits taking them extremely close to the Sun at perihelion. They are believed to be fragments of one large comet that broke up several centuries ago and are named for German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who first demonstrated that they were related. A Kreutz sungrazers's aphelion is about 170 AU from the Sun; these sungrazers make their way from the distant outer Solar System from a patch in the sky in Canis Major, to the inner Solar System, to their perihelion point near the Sun, and then leave the inner Solar System in their return trip to their aphelion.

Several members of the Kreutz family have become great comets, occasionally visible near the Sun in the daytime sky. The most recent of these was Comet Ikeya–Seki in 1965, which may have been one of the brightest comets in the last millennium. It has been suggested that another cluster of bright Kreutz system comets may begin to arrive in the inner Solar System in the next few years to decades.

More than 4000 of smaller members of the family, some only a few meters across, have been discovered since the launch of the SOHO satellite in 1995. None of these smaller comets have survived its perihelion passage. Larger sungrazers such as the Great Comet of 1843 and C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy) have survived their perihelion passage. Amateur astronomers have been successful at discovering Kreutz comets in the data available in real time via the internet.Kreutz sungrazers

 

Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 14

▪︎Solar activity

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. AR3056 has generated the majority of C class flares.

The largest solar event of the period was a medium-sized flare of M1.2 class that occurred near the eastern limb of the Sun on July 14 at 02:56 UTC It generated a minor R1 Radio blackout over southeast Asia. In adition there was a CME associated.

There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3053, AR3055, AR3056 and AR3057

AR3052 has gone but is emerging a new region on the northeast limb that generated the M1.2

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 582.6 km/s at 09:35 UTC july 14 with a density of 12.36 p/cm3

Current Conditions at 13:13 UTC July 14

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp= 1
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 537.5 km/sec
▪︎density: 12.53 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 1.6 % Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 101 (SN 117 Jul 13)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 

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Puma

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUL 15

▪︎Solar activity

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Most of the flares were small C class

New region AR3058 on the northeast (N15E69) generated an M2.8 class flare at 21:05 UTC july 14 causing an R1 radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean

AR3058 is a group of 7 sunspots located on the northeast with size 230MH and a beta magnetic field. The probability of generate C class flares is 35%

There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk: AR3053, AR3055, AR3056, AR3057 and AR3058

▪︎Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580.1 km/s at 04:02 UTC july 15 with a density of 10.79 p/cm3

Current Conditions at 13:53 UTC July 15

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp= 2
▪︎Solar wind speed record: 552.4 km/sec
▪︎density: 12.6 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 1.8% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 133 (SN 101 Jul 13)
▪︎There are no significant coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

SpaceWeather.com
SpaceWeatherlive..com
 

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