Role of Crypto/Cybercurrencies in the PTB's loss of control?

axj

The Living Force
  1. Economic troubles increase
  2. Crypto will again shoot up
  3. Oops, the economy is 'broken'...
  4. Crypto will climb even more
  5. Oops! Cryptos are 'broken' - massive plunge (very much like Dotcom bubble bursting)
  6. Gov't steps in with CBDCs or some 'quasi-crypto 2.0' to Save the Day®

Yes, pretty much. Which is why it is important to take profits as the prices rise. We are expecting new all time highs this year probably in late October or November and then a massive crash. And then in 2022 crypto will go even higher. And then crash again.

I am not too invested in crypto surviving long-term, though the chances of that are very good in my opinion.

The success of the CBDC's is more than questionable and they are not much more than stablecoins under central control. I do not see these becoming popular like crypto, even though the cabal clearly hopes that the popularity of crypto will translate into CBDC adoption.
 

Ryan

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I am currently focused a lot on investing and from the data I have it is very likely that cryptocurrencies will increase a lot within the next 3-4 months, probably starting in late August.
Agreed. My opinion is that we may have begun the early stages of another, smaller, more sustained bull run that may go through to the end of the year. Not sure if the price predictions of $100K BTC will be met, but I think $80K is definitely a reasonable target.
My favorites among the larger coins:
Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), Dogecoin (DOGE)
Cardano and Doge have no technology fundamentals IMO. Not to say that they won't appreciate from sheer marketing (especially Doge), but I'd be looking to exit those positions asap once a top is reached. ETH and DOT are good longer-term holds. I'd also include BTC, BNB and LINK as good large market cap prospects. XRP might be worthwhile if you're comfortable doing more volatile short-term trades.
Mid-sized coins with more potential for multiples:
Theta (THETA), Polygon (MATIC), Solana (SOL), Stellar (XLM), VeChain (VET)
Polygon is having all sorts of troubles with congestion now that they're experiencing heavier load. Solana could be an excellent buy though. Stellar seems to travel sideways a lot. Not sure about it. I've heard VeChain is worth a look, but don't know anything about it at this point. I think Terra (LUNA) could make another nice run, although not sure if they can match their earlier performance this year.
Basic Attention Token (BAT), Maker (MKR) and Cosmos (ATOM) also have solid development behind them for good longer-term holds. KuCoin Coin (KCS) also just launched the KuCoin Community Chain, similar to Binance Smart Chain, so there's some prospects there.
Smaller, more volatile coins with much more upward potential:
Shiba (SHIB), Digibyte (DGB), Theta Fuel (TFUEL), Reddcoin (RDD)
SHIB is a hype coin as well. I recommend getting out quick if you make decent profits on it. DGB doesn't really seem to have any momentum, not sure I'd suggest it. THETA and TFUEL I don't know anything about. Same with Reddcoin, although it looks like a Litecoin fork, so unless they have some big partnerships and projects planned, I'd prefer other prospects.

Some interesting ones I've been looking at: Enjin (ENJ), OpenOcean (OOE), Hive (HIVE), Telos (TLOS) and Oasis (ROSE).

Not financial advice, DYOR etc.
 

Mike

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Oops! Cryptos are 'broken' - massive plunge (very much like Dotcom bubble bursting)
That's a hunch, but keep in mind that it was my hunch for awhile now and it's quite strong. As I have learned more and more about cryptos, the hunch has been strengthened - not weakened. Most of the time, when I have a hunch like this, I ignore it at my peril. Well, whatever, right? I could be wrong.
Can you please go into more detail about this hunch of "Cryptos are 'broken'", if you have more thoughts on this? Thanks
Plus, Other Events May Intervene, but given how everything else is going these days, I really don't see cryptos as they exist today 'taking over' or defeating centrally-controlled fiat currencies.
Yeah, I agree as far as how things are progressing right now and the control that is still in place. There would have to be shocks to the system and/or power structure, even if the TPTB don't lose full control, imo for crypto to move toward rivaling centrally-controlled fiat and the CBDCs that are coming. I guess we will just have to watch what happens to see if any 'chicks in the armor' of TPTB emerge and what that might mean for everything, to include crypto.

My comments in bold blue:
Things to be careful of:
  1. Can you get your money out?
    Do not assume that you won't need your fiat account. IMO it's likely that you will, even if fiat changes shape over time - especially if fiat changes... {I agree - and also consider what kind of attention moving larger amounts of fiat from crypto can garner, if you do well and start to sell}
  2. Beware soft wallets
    If they're hacked, you lose everything {I agree - security is very important, know the risks associated with what wallets you use}
  3. Beware hardware wallets
    Depending on how you use them, you may get screwed. For example, using a Trezor with Exodus is a bad idea since Exodus imposes trading limits and often-ridiculous transaction fees. Using ANY exchange is risky. Many appear to be legit and have lovely fancy-sounding names, but have only been around for a few years. They aren't in it to make you rich... {I agree - know the risks and drawbacks of any wallet and exchange you use (or combination there of) and give yourself as many options as possible to buy and sell crypto in case some fail or are unable to be accessed, especially if crypto rises very rapidly, since most major exchanges 'freeze up' when the action is the hottest to the upside or downside. I think this should include having an account or accounts set up with Over The Counter (OTC) crypto dealers, since they can have the best access and best ability to move crypto of anyone in the crypto world, fwiw.}
  4. Don't assume everything will become crypto-ified
    That's what you're supposed to think, so don't. {I think that this will take time, if it is going to happen, so agree in terms of the foreseeable future}
  5. Hysteria
    If you're one of the people talking non-stop about how cryptos will fix everything and be super-awesome, consider that you drank the KoolAid - or at least act as if you have, and make sure you cover your rear end. {I agree}
  6. Basic needs come first
    In the event of Total Chaos, you die without food, water, and shelter. Imagine a scenario where you are a 'Bitcoin Billionaire' on digital paper, but you're slowly starving or freezing to death... Oops! Crazier things have happened. {Absolutely agree, I think there are some large amount of crypto people that don't consider this at all or have a clue what is in general happening outside of crypto.}

We are expecting new all time highs this year probably in late October or November and then a massive crash. And then in 2022 crypto will go even higher. And then crash again.
A massive crash (and some kind of extended bear market, but maybe not 2-3 years like the last one) after crypto has another huge run up later this year (or whenever the next huge run up tops out) is what I used to think was certain to happen. I think that is the perceived 'wisdom' of a lot of people in crypto right now and follows the 'Wall Street Cheat Sheet' - Wall Street Cheat Sheet. Now I'm not so certain. There are a lot of factors that may ameliorate things from a huge crash and extended down turn, such as mainstream adoption, the state of the financial system as we move forward, possible miscalculation by many parties as a whole in terms of what they want to push on the world, and some projects built out and thriving, and some coins may not correct with the overall crypto market, if there is a big and extended downturn for a good amount of the coins. But I completely agree with you about taking profits at multiple points as crypto rises regardless if there is or is not going to be a huge crash, etc.
 

Ryan

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Today I received several crypto newsletters, all of which are pushing people to buy - big time.
This is what I think will happen:
  1. Economic troubles increase
  2. Crypto will again shoot up
  3. Oops, the economy is 'broken'...
  4. Crypto will climb even more
  5. Oops! Cryptos are 'broken' - massive plunge (very much like Dotcom bubble bursting)
  6. Gov't steps in with CBDCs or some 'quasi-crypto 2.0' to Save the Day®
I think this is spot on, Scottie. The timing for point 5 is definitely the big question mark. I'm hoping we won't see it this year, but there's so much craziness going on that anything could be possible. China's CBDC is definitely picking up steam, and might make the e-Yuan into the next world reserve currency. That being said, I think that many cryptocurrencies will still hold at least some of their value as commodity assets, provided there's sufficient technology basis and utility to the coins.

Plus, Other Events May Intervene, but given how everything else is going these days, I really don't see cryptos as they exist today 'taking over' or defeating centrally-controlled fiat currencies.
Yep, I think any chance of that happening disappeared with World Covidiocy.

Basic needs come first
In the event of Total Chaos, you die without food, water, and shelter. Imagine a scenario where you are a 'Bitcoin Billionaire' on digital paper, but you're slowly starving or freezing to death... Oops! Crazier things have happened.
☝️IMPORTANT! Take profits as you go, and diversify into real world assets and supplies as well (eg. gold, silver, tools, food etc.) people!
 

Scottie

Administrator
Administrator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
Can you please go into more detail about this hunch of "Cryptos are 'broken'", if you have more thoughts on this? Thanks

Well, nothing much, really... It just seems to me that if the tiniest news blurb can cause any crypto to either soar to the moon or plummet to the depths of a giant sinkhole, then it wouldn't take much to 'crash' cryptos.

It's kind of like Covid: logically, what's happening makes no sense - yet off it goes, on and on! More vaccines! More masks!

So, I'm not sure why I should believe that cryptos are any different. IOW, reality doesn't matter much for anything else these days, so why should cryptos follow any logical rules?
 

axj

The Living Force
I think this is spot on, Scottie. The timing for point 5 is definitely the big question mark. I'm hoping we won't see it this year, but there's so much craziness going on that anything could be possible.

The CBDC's won't be ready until next year for the most part. Some sort of G20 crypto regulation agreement is quite possible this year though.

Regulation as such is not necessarily bad, it all depends on what new rules they come up with. Some of it is likely to be more restrictive though and may well be one of the reasons for the next downturn.
 

axj

The Living Force
SHIB is a hype coin as well. I recommend getting out quick if you make decent profits on it. DGB doesn't really seem to have any momentum, not sure I'd suggest it. THETA and TFUEL I don't know anything about.

Meme coins like Doge, Shiba and a few others may well become some of the actually used payment coins due to their popularity, relatively fast transaction times and low fees. This applies primarily to Doge and quite likely Shiba as well.

Digibyte is a favorite of many psychics and Theta too, even more so.
 

Seppo Ilmarinen

Dagobah Resident
FOTCM Member
This is what I think will happen:
  1. Economic troubles increase
  2. Crypto will again shoot up
  3. Oops, the economy is 'broken'...
  4. Crypto will climb even more
  5. Oops! Cryptos are 'broken' - massive plunge (very much like Dotcom bubble bursting)
  6. Gov't steps in with CBDCs or some 'quasi-crypto 2.0' to Save the Day®
I see this pretty much the same way. As I've been following the recent developments, it seems that at the same time there's new institutional money coming to the crypto space (e.g banks like J.P Morgan opening cryptos to their customers) and new plans made in order to increase the control (e.g FED stating the need of 'regulative framework' for stablecoins).

The reason is probably simple: for them there's just too much money to be made, especially due to volative nature of cryptos, which these 'whales' take advance all the time by manipulating the price with large sell-offs and then bying back from panicked retail investors. So the greed drives PTB to let crypto markets become more popular for now, but they clearly have plans that won't align with what 'true believers' project into Bitcoin.

So at the end of the day PTB will hijack/push cryptocurrencies to serve the purpose what it probably was originally planned to do, i.e CBDC's and the increased ability to track and program how citizens use their money (they could for example program the CBDC's to be used in a 'climate friendly' way to dictate what you should/could buy).
Here lies the sweet spot of opportunity for CBDC as a complementary currency in the universe of cash, digital, and crypto currencies on offer.

Programmability, using smart contracts, is a potential and desirable feature of digital money. Smart contracts are computer code instructions that automatically execute all or parts of an agreement. These types of contracts, supported by Distributed Ledger Technology and tied to a particular taxonomy of green products and services, could allow an economic policy to be laser-guided to favor consumption of low carbon goods targeted to certain geographic areas with a sunset provision. Conditions precedent would allow for automatic execution and could have strong appeal in times of extended climate change duress in calamity-affected areas. [hmm, you mean like climate lockdowns?]

[...]

By extension, the CBDC utility could be governed by a value conversion matrix, linking the painkiller capacity of products and services on offer to the toll at hand. The discount in conversion rate would be more prominent for products and services availed by companies whose footprint contributes to climate change and biodiversity loss. The conversion rate would increase for companies that embed strong and sustained inclusion and diversity policies. Emerging disclosure requirements articulated by TCFD, CDP, and SEC amongst others, will provide transparent and accurate mapping of the companies’ respective footprints to assist in constructing such conversion matrices.
But since CBDC's are still in their designing stage (at least officially) and the PTB have ways to hide/delay economic troubles, (via QE programs and shooting 'helicopter money') there should be some time before we end up at the stages 5 and 6 in Scottie's post. And as usual, things won't necessarily go exactly as the PTB delusionally plan, so we'll have to wait and see what role cryptocurrencies and CBDC's will eventually play and how they'll end up, OSIT. I've bought some (mostly Ethereum, plus some meme coins and gaming related cryptos) in the last few months after the 50% crash, and will see how it goes around to the end of the year.

But I think it's important not to get emotionally too invested and start to think that cryptos offer any real solution (as this would be just redux of any other 'savior' programs) to problems that are inherently due to STS nature of our reality, and which goes much more deeper than just the corrupted Fiat monetary system.
 

Mike

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
As they always seem to do in terms of sliding something in, lawmakers are trying to sneak something into the infrastructure bill in terms of crypto that could have very negative impacts on crypto in all of its facets in the US.


 

BHelmet

The Living Force
@axj and @Scottie, thanks for sharing your insights here. It indeed was a prosperous week, and the outlook is from here is still quite good. The pryor sentiment there would be a major collapse in June/July seem to have vanished for now.
Interesting how things went quite differently than the 'prior sentiment' and yet now the new current sentiment is somehow to be believed to be reliable? Prior to the last bitcoin downturn there was a ton of buzz about bitcoin to the moon, get on board. Now the buzz is "collapse in sept/oct". i.e., it is "safe" to invest now. When is popular sentiment ever allowed to be right? Is not this manipulation a sheep shearing operation? If they say "buy" or "sell" does that mean the opposite is more likely? What a head trip!
 

Jono

Jedi Master
FOTCM Member
Today I received several crypto newsletters, all of which are pushing people to buy - big time.
This is what I think will happen:
  1. Economic troubles increase
  2. Crypto will again shoot up
  3. Oops, the economy is 'broken'...
  4. Crypto will climb even more
  5. Oops! Cryptos are 'broken' - massive plunge (very much like Dotcom bubble bursting)
  6. Gov't steps in with CBDCs or some 'quasi-crypto 2.0' to Save the Day®
That's a hunch, but keep in mind that it was my hunch for awhile now and it's quite strong. As I have learned more and more about cryptos, the hunch has been strengthened - not weakened. Most of the time, when I have a hunch like this, I ignore it at my peril. Well, whatever, right? I could be wrong.

Plus, Other Events May Intervene, but given how everything else is going these days, I really don't see cryptos as they exist today 'taking over' or defeating centrally-controlled fiat currencies.

Cryptos are a game, like most things in this world.

Things to be careful of:
  1. Can you get your money out?
    Do not assume that you won't need your fiat account. IMO it's likely that you will, even if fiat changes shape over time - especially if fiat changes...
  2. Beware soft wallets
    If they're hacked, you lose everything
  3. Beware hardware wallets
    Depending on how you use them, you may get screwed. For example, using a Trezor with Exodus is a bad idea since Exodus imposes trading limits and often-ridiculous transaction fees. Using ANY exchange is risky. Many appear to be legit and have lovely fancy-sounding names, but have only been around for a few years. They aren't in it to make you rich...
  4. Don't assume everything will become crypto-ified
    That's what you're supposed to think, so don't.
  5. Hysteria
    If you're one of the people talking non-stop about how cryptos will fix everything and be super-awesome, consider that you drank the KoolAid - or at least act as if you have, and make sure you cover your rear end.
  6. Basic needs come first
    In the event of Total Chaos, you die without food, water, and shelter. Imagine a scenario where you are a 'Bitcoin Billionaire' on digital paper, but you're slowly starving or freezing to death... Oops! Crazier things have happened.
FWIW. I will be extremely happy (and wealthier) if I'm wrong, but alas...

Thanks Scottie, that was a refreshing post.

With my experience of the last boom/bust cycle with cryptocurrency in 2017, the only smart move I made was taking profits.

It seems as soon as celebs or other high profile influencers start trying to get the average person to invest, they (maybe the 'market makers') are carefully planning a move to sell you their stocks at the highest price possible, before switching to short the stock (or crypto). It should be something to look out for to plan an exit imo.

After all we can see just how easily people can be influenced by the BS in the MSM, so why wouldn't they do the same with taking peoples investments?

And regarding '5. Oops! Cryptos are 'broken' - massive plunge (very much like Dotcom bubble bursting)' I agree. I imagine it will only take a single article about quantum computing being able to disrupt the blockchain, or a major government deciding to make it illegal for citizens to trade crypto to topple it again, much like the China-crypto news in 2017.

I should mention I also have crypto investments, but I don't plan to hold on to them forever because '"they r going 2 replace the banks and change d world". I'll continue to take profits and trade trends with what I can afford to play with.
 

iamthatis

Jedi Council Member
FOTCM Member

So I read this article and wondered how a crypto platform can be hacked. I thought that the ledger technology, wherein all financial data is stored simultaneously across thousands or even millions of computers, was 'unhackable', because it required each device to be hacked simultaneously.

It says a vulnerability was found between contract calls - so when numbers are flying through space, from one account to another, they can set up a 'siphon' of sorts, to intercept that and store it in a different account? Am I understanding this correctly?
 

Mike

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
@iamthatis - I'd have to look into more detail about this specific hack, but from my understanding the DeFi platforms, such as Poly Network, utilize smart contracts, from the blockchain or blockchains utilized in the specific DeFi network or platform, to write the software that makes up the DeFi platform. So there can be vulnerabilities within the software code, which uses the smart contracts, and depending on how it is designed and how the code is written there can be exploits in which a hacker can gain access to funds if there are security flaws, etc.

Poly Network is a multichain DeFi Network and it is also my understanding that the more blockchains you try to include in a network, cross-chain compatibility between the blockchains and cross-chain seamless interaction and swapping between blockchains in something like a DeFi network, the more complex the software/code becomes and thus the possibility of more security flaws and exploits.

I thought this was a decent video when I viewed it when it came out that gives an overview and history of some problems related to crypto and 'bugs' and even predicted that a hack like Poly Network in relation to DeFi would happen this year.
 
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