Rising fluxes of cosmic rays inside the solar system

mrtn

Dagobah Resident
There is a minor geomagnetic storm going on.
Screenshot_2021-09-18_08-18-47.png

I wonder if some satellites have problems with this one. Sat24 wasn't showing images since 05:50 when it was 08:00 (now they show image for 08:20, and they have an 2.5 hour gap instead of their usual 15min steps)

Screenshot_2021-09-18_08-40-40.png

noaa - satellite-environment is currently showing different data all the time or no data for some timeframe (keeping the website open I can see it keeps changing the view). Also there are also some spikes and 'cracks' in the magnetometers' graphs. It's not totally unusal though to see strange data or gaps on these sites, I've seen this often.

Screenshot_2021-09-18_08-55-40.pngScreenshot_2021-09-18_08-41-36.pngScreenshot_2021-09-18_08-40-12.pngScreenshot_2021-09-18_08-39-07.pngScreenshot_2021-09-18_08-27-40.png

It could be just website software problems of course, but then I saw Suspicious0bservers is also mentioning current satellite failures:
 

JGeropoulas

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Maybe increased cosmic rays are part of the universe's mechanism for regulating human "progress" (i.e. techno-tyranny). This video on YouTube explains the phenomenon of cosmic ray particles from distant galaxies flipping a "1" to a "0" in computer chips. Such "single event upsets" have caused plane accidents, election interference and game glitches.

/watch?v=AaZ_RSt0KP8&list=PLZiM1QEyUYqyik0SQpx812unMr2rrJiT-&index=6&t=269s
 

mrtn

Dagobah Resident
EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE AND HALO CME: This morning, an explosion on the sun hurled a CME almost directly toward Earth. It's called a "halo CME" because the storm cloud appears to make a halo around the solar disk as it moves in our direction. Minor to moderately-strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives during the late hours of Oct. 11th or Oct 12th.
The proton flux is also slightly elevated. IIRC there was a study linking elevated proton flux to earthquakes.
Screenshot_2021-10-09_19-52-09.png

Here is the x-rax flux with the M1.6 this morning.
Screenshot_2021-10-09_19-52-39.png
 

itellsya

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
Space Weather has been reporting that cosmic rays are reducing as activity on the Sun increases as we exit solar minimum, providing the following graph:


cosmicrays_ca_trends2_strip.png


Today i came across a Tweet showing a cosmic ray count graph going back to the 60's (shown below), taken from the University of Oulu's page ('one of Finland's largest universities'), and i thought that it seems to provide a bit more perspective on the situation.

The two groups may collect data differently, but i imagine the final count is close enough, and it looks to me like, whilst cosmic rays are decreasing, when taking the graph below into account, they still appear to be at relatively high levels.

FBVnOw7XIAQHVWn





And, just for reference, this is what Space Weather had this to say on the first graph above:
SPACE WEATHER BALLOON DATA: Almost once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with sensors that detect secondary cosmic rays, a form of radiation from space that can penetrate all the way down to Earth's surface. Our monitoring program has been underway without interruption for 6 years, resulting in a unique dataset of in situ atmospheric measurements.​


Latest results: Our most recent flight on June 25, 2021, confirms a trend of decreasing cosmic radiation:




Cosmic ray dose rates peaked in late 2019, and have been slowly declining ever since. This makes perfect sense. Solar Minimum was in late 2019. During Solar Minimum the sun's magnetic field weakens, allowing more cosmic rays into the solar system. We expect dose rate to be highest at that time.​


Now that Solar Minimum has passed, the sun is waking up again. Solar magnetic fields are strengthening, providing a stiffer barrier to cosmic rays trying to enter the solar system. The decline of cosmic radiation above California is a sign that new Solar Cycle 25 is gaining strength.​


.Who cares? Cosmic rays are a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather. They can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. According to a study from the Harvard T.H. Chan school of public health, crews of aircraft have higher rates of cancer than the general population. The researchers listed cosmic rays, irregular sleep habits, and chemical contaminants as leading risk factors. Somewhat more controversial studies (#1, #2, #3, #4) llink cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death.


En route to the stratosphere, our sensors also pass through aviation altitudes:



In this plot, dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. The higher you fly, the more radiation you will absorb.​
 
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So far it has been a windy affair.
The auroras have been stunning.

Here’s an article discussing the auroras seen around the Pacific Northwest:


Whitmer explained that Saturday’s coronal mass ejections on the sun created especially strong blasts of solar wind. When the stronger winds hit the Earth’s magnetic field, they created cracks in that planetary armor, Whitmer said.

Breaking through the armor allowed electrons and protons to push farther south, as opposed to remaining exclusively at the poles. The aurora borealis was, in general, increasingly brilliant farther to the north, Whitmer said.
 
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