Putin Recognizes Donbass Republics, Sends Russian Military to 'Denazify' Ukraine

Info about Nord Stream repair.

Based on Nord Stream documentations. Mostly cut & paste.


The line pipes will be internally coated with an epoxy-based material. (No panic for internal corrosion!)

The coating will be an epoxy-based red-brown, high-gloss paint.

The epoxy is comprised of the following components:
- Epoxy base (epoxy resin, pigments, extenders, additives and organic solvent)
- Curing agent (aliphatic/cycloaliphatic amine or polyamide)

The coating will have a thickness of ~90 μm and cover the entire line pipe length, except for an internal cutback of ~50 mm at the pipe ends to allow for heat transfer during welding. This cutback will remain uncoated after welding.

The Nord Stream pipelines will be constructed of steel line pipes with a length of 12.2 m that are welded together. The line pipes will be a submerged arc, single seam, longitudinally welded SAWL 485 I FD grade carbon steel pipes, as per DNV OS-F101, with a nominal diameter of 48” and a constant internal diameter of 1,153 mm. The wall thickness of the steel pipes is based on maximum allowable operation pressure, prevention of external collapse and resistance to external impacts and therefore varies in four thicknesses between 26.8 – 41.0 mm. In Finland, the wall thickness is 34.6 mm until KP 300, after which it is reduced to 30.9 mm.

For the repair, the damaged section(s) are cut in place and new pipe is welded using hyperbaric tie-in dry chamber, resulting in minimal lifting of the pipeline.

The pipelines will be cut and then aligned for fit-up. The habitat will be placed over the fit-up location and sealed over the pipeline ends. Water will be pumped out of the habitat, and welding subsequently will be performed by the divers/welders.

Take note that pre-commissioning of the pipeline include flooding with treated seawater.

I expect the time to repair will be similar to pre-commissioning, approximately five months, + commissioning time (?).
 

Welcoming the New Russians​



Novorussia is Russia again. The contrast between Putin’s actual speech and the way the Western media described it with over-the-top rhetoric while providing only “extracts” that nevertheless fail to make its case is really all you need to read to understand who the good guys are and who the satan-worshipping evil guys are.
Vladimir Putin has annexed four Ukrainian regions to Russia in a blistering Kremlin speech in which he vowed to ‘smash’ the West and liberate the world, raising fears he is gearing up to deploy Moscow’s huge nuclear arsenal.
The Russian despot, speaking in front of his cronies in Moscow, declared that ‘millions of people’ had ‘opted’ to become vassals of Russia in sham referendums – declaring them to be ‘are our people, forever,’ to a standing ovation in the Kremlin’s grand Georgian Hall.
He then turned on the West, delivering screed in which he recalled the horrors of both world wars, Korea, and Vietnam; made homophobic jibes, ranted about sex changes, and accused westerners of being ‘Satanists’; vowed ‘Western hegemony will be smashed’ and spoke of Russia’s ‘destiny’ to liberate the world.
He even suggested that the US had set a ‘precedent’ for using nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, hinting that he could be considering his own atomic strike – either against Ukraine or its allies.
Reaction was swift. President Zelensky, who has vowed never to respect the annexation, declared that Ukraine will officially apply to join NATO and will never negotiate with Russia so long as Putin is in power. Prime Minister Liz Truss said Britain ‘will ensure [Putin] loses this illegal war. The EU said it ‘unequivocally condemns’ the annexation. Boris Johnson, former Prime Minister who became an iconic figure to Ukraine, branded Putin’s speech a ‘disgrace’ and vowed the UK will stand with Ukraine ‘without flinching until their country is whole and free.
In other words, if these US lapdogs are to be taken seriously, Russia will end up ruling the entire European continent, plus Great Britain and Ireland. Fortunately, we all know these are not serious people; Ukraine will be conquered entirely if its neocon government does not surrender, Britain couldn’t defeat the Catholics in Northern Ireland much less the Russians, the EU had no problem with the annexation of Serbian territory, and Boris Johnson is a ticket-taking bozo who couldn’t keep his job despite being elected with a massive majority.

Remember, this is the same media that tells us Kiev is winning a war against Russia, which of course is why Zelensky is desperately attempting to speed up its application to NATO even though the USA has zero intention of committing any of its troops to the NATO-Russian war. Because, obviously, running screaming for help is what people who are winning do, right?

Now, read President Putin’s actual words. It’s hard to imagine any globalist leader of the so-called West being able to even quote him directly without bursting into flames.
In 1991 in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, representatives of the party elite of that time made a decision to terminate the Soviet Union, without asking ordinary citizens what they wanted, and people suddenly found themselves cut off from their homeland. This tore apart and dismembered our national community and triggered a national catastrophe. Just like the government quietly demarcated the borders of Soviet republics, acting behind the scenes after the 1917 revolution, the last leaders of the Soviet Union, contrary to the direct expression of the will of the majority of people in the referendum of 1991, destroyed our great country, and simply made the people in the former republics face this as an accomplished fact.

I can admit that they didn’t even know what they were doing and what consequences their actions would have in the end. But it doesn’t matter now. There is no Soviet Union anymore; we cannot return to the past. Actually, Russia no longer needs it today; this isn’t our ambition. But there is nothing stronger than the determination of millions of people who, by their culture, religion, traditions, and language, consider themselves part of Russia, whose ancestors lived in a single country for centuries. There is nothing stronger than their determination to return to their true historical homeland.

For eight long years, people in Donbass were subjected to genocide, shelling and blockades; in Kherson and Zaporozhye, a criminal policy was pursued to cultivate hatred for Russia, for everything Russian. Now too, during the referendums, the Kiev regime threatened schoolteachers, women who worked in election commissions with reprisals and death. Kiev threatened millions of people who came to express their will with repression. But the people of Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson weren’t broken, and they had their say.

I want the Kiev authorities and their true handlers in the West to hear me now, and I want everyone to remember this: the people living in Lugansk and Donetsk, in Kherson and Zaporozhye have become our citizens, forever….

Western countries have been insisting for centuries that they bear freedom and democracy for other nations. Everything is exactly the opposite: instead of democracy – suppression and exploitation; instead of freedom – enslavement and violence. The whole unipolar world order is inherently anti-democratic and not free, it is deceiving and hypocritical throughout.

The United States is the only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons twice, destroying the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan. And they created a precedent. Recall that during WWII the United States and Britain reduced Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne and many other German cities to rubble, without the least military necessity. It was done ostentatiously and, to repeat, without any military necessity. They had only one goal, as with the nuclear bombing of Japanese cities: to intimidate our country and the rest of the world.

The United States left a deep scar in the memory of the people of Korea and Vietnam with their carpet bombings and use of napalm and chemical weapons. It actually continues to occupy Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea and other countries, which they cynically refer to as equals and allies. Look now, what kind of alliance is that? The whole world knows that the top officials in these countries are being spied on and that their offices and homes are bugged. It is a disgrace, a disgrace for those who do this and for those who, like slaves, silently and meekly swallow this arrogant behaviour.….

The current neocolonial model is ultimately doomed; this much is obvious. But I repeat that its real masters will cling to it to the end. They simply have nothing to offer the world except to maintain the same system of plundering and racketeering.

They do not give a damn about the natural right of billions of people, the majority of humanity, to freedom and justice, the right to determine their own future. They have already moved on to the radical denial of moral, religious, and family values.

Let’s answer some very simple questions for ourselves. Now I would like to return to what I said and want to address also all citizens of the country – not just the colleagues that are in the hall – but all citizens of Russia: do we want to have here, in our country, in Russia, “parent number one, parent number two and parent number three” (they have completely lost it!) instead of mother and father? Do we want our schools to impose on our children, from their earliest days in school, perversions that lead to degradation and extinction? Do we want to drum into their heads the ideas that certain other genders exist along with women and men and to offer them gender reassignment surgery? Is that what we want for our country and our children? This is all unacceptable to us. We have a different future of our own.

Let me repeat that the dictatorship of the Western elites targets all societies, including the citizens of Western countries themselves. This is a challenge to all. This complete renunciation of what it means to be human, the overthrow of faith and traditional values, and the suppression of freedom are coming to resemble a “religion in reverse” – pure Satanism. Exposing false messiahs, Jesus Christ said in the Sermon on the Mount: “By their fruits ye shall know them.” These poisonous fruits are already obvious to people, and not only in our country but also in all countries, including many people in the West itself.

Signing of treaties on accession of Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics and Zaporozhye and Kherson regions to Russia, Vladimir Putin, 30 September 2022


It’s fascinating to observe that Vladimir Putin sees and calls out the inversion. It’s clear that he understands its significance too, with his reference to “a religion in reverse”. The wicked can fold, spindle, and mutilate the truth all they like, but eventually the truth leaks out. The current rulers of the Neo-West are pure Satanists. The USA did create a precedent with its unnecessary use of atomic weapons. And whether Neo-Western hegemony is smashed or it collapses under the weight of its own internal contradictions, it will come to an end sooner or later.

NATO cannot defeat Russia anymore than Germany could defeat the USA in WWII. And if the NATO-Russian war escalates into WWIII, it is the Sino-Russian alliance that will be the winners. The problem is that just as Hitler believed he could bluster and intimidate the Allies into surrender after a series of successful bluffs, the Neocons believe they can mediacate and magic-word their way to victory over Russia, China, Iran, India, Brazil, and the rest of the world on the basis of their past successes.

The fruits of past success produce the seeds of future failure.

DISCUSS ON SG
 

The Winter of Yuri​

Big Serge
Sep 29



THE WAR.jpg
“You should know, by and large, we haven’t even started anything yet in earnest.”

I have been attempting for several days to collect my thoughts on the Russo-Ukrainian War and condense them into another analysis piece, but my efforts were consistently frustrated by the war’s stubborn refusal to sit still. After a slow, attritional grind for much of the summer, events have begun to accelerate, calling to mind a famous quip from Vladimir Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
This has been one of those weeks. It began with the commencement of referenda in four former Ukrainian oblasts to determine whether or not to join the Russian Federation, accompanied by Putin’s announcement that reservists would be called up to augment the force deployment in Ukraine. Further excitement bubbled up from the Baltic seabed with the mysterious destruction of the Nordstream pipelines. Nuclear rumors circulate, and all the while the war on the ground continues.

In all, it is clear that we are currently in the transitional period towards a new phase of the war, with higher Russian force deployment, expanded rules of engagement, and greater intensity looming. Season 2 of the Special Military Operation looms, and with it the Winter of Yuri:

Twitter avatar for @witte_sergeiBig Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺 @witte_sergei
The Big Serge Pledge Special Military Operation, Season 2: The Winter of Yuri
Image

September 27th 2022
Let’s try to process all the developments of the past few weeks and get a handle on the trajectory in Ukraine.

Annexation​

The keystone event at the heart of recent escalation was the announcement of referenda in four regions (Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson) to determine the question of entry into the Russian Federation. The implication of course was that if the referenda succeeded (a question that was never in doubt), these regions would be annexed to Russia. While there were some rumors circulating that Russia would delay the annexation, this was never really plausible. To allow these regions to vote in favor of joining Russia only to leave them out in the cold would be monumentally unpopular and raise serious doubts about Russia’s commitment to its people in Ukraine.
Formal annexation is a certainty, if not on September 30th as rumored, then within the next week.
All of this is rather predictable, and completes the first layer of annexations which I noted in previous analysis. The reasoning is not particularly complex: clearing the Donbas and securing Crimea were the absolute minimum Russian objectives for the war, and securing Crimea requires both a land bridge with road and rail connections (Zaporizhia oblast) and controlling Crimea’s water sources (Kherson). These minimum objectives have now been formally designated, though of course Ukraine maintains some military activity on these territories and will have to be dislodged.


The Big Serge Annexation Map: Phase 1 Complete
I think, however, that people lost focus as to what the referenda and the ensuing annexation means. Western talking points focused on the illegitimacy of the votes and the illegality of any annexation, but this is really not very interesting or important. The legitimacy of annexation is derived from whether or not Russian administration can succeed in these regions. Legitimacy, as such, is merely a question of efficacy of state power. Can the state protect, extract, and adjudicate?
In any case, what is far more interesting than the technicalities of the referenda is what the decision to annex these regions says about Russian intentions. Once these regions become formally annexed, they will be viewed by the Russian state as sovereign Russian territory, subject to protection with the full range of Russian capabilities, including (in the most dire and unlikely scenario) nuclear weapons. When Medvedev pointed this out, it was bizarrely spun as a “nuclear threat”, but what he was actually trying to communicate is that these four oblasts will become part of Russia’s minimum definition of state integrity - non-negotiables, in other words.
I think the best way to formulate it is as such:
Annexation confers a formal designation that a territory has been deemed existentially important to the Russian state, and will be contested as if the integrity of the nation and state is at risk.
Those fixating on the “legality” of the referenda (as if such a thing exists) and Medvedev’s supposed nuclear blackmail are missing this point. Russia is telling us where it currently draws the line for its absolute minimum peace conditions. It’s not walking away without at least these four oblasts, and it considers the full range of state capabilities to be in play to achieve that goal.

Force Generation​

The move to hold referenda and eventually annex the southeastern rim was accompanied with Putin’s long-awaited announcement of a “partial mobilization”. Ostensibly, the initial order calls up just 300,000 men with previous military experience, but the door is left upon for further surges at the discretion of the president’s office. Implicitly, Putin can now ramp up the mobilization as he sees fit without needing to make further announcements or sign more paperwork. This is similar to American Lend-Lease or the “Authorization for Use of Military Force” in America, where the door is opened once and the President is then free to move at will without even informing the public.
It was increasingly clear that Russia needed to raise its force deployment. Ukraine’s successful drive to the Oskil River was made possible by Russian economy of force. The Russian army had completely hollowed out Kharkiv Oblast, leaving only a thin screening force of national guardsmen and LNR militia. In places where the Russian Army has chosen to deploy sizeable regular formations, the results have been disastrous for Ukraine - the infamous Kherson Counteroffensive turned into a shooting gallery for Russian artillery, with the Ukrainian Army haplessly funneling men into a hopeless bridgehead at Andriivka.


A Shooting Gallery

So far in this war, Ukraine has achieved two big successes retaking territory: first in the spring, around Kiev, and now the late summer recapture of Kharkov Oblast. In both cases, the Russians had preemptively hollowed out the sector. We have yet to see a successful Ukrainian offensive against the Russian Army in a defensive posture. The obvious solution, therefore, is to raise the force deployment so that it is no longer necessary to hollow out sections of the front.
The initial surge of 300,000 men is being a bit muddled. Not all of the men being called up will be sent to Ukraine. Many will remain in Russia on garrison duty so that existing ready formations can be rotated to Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that we will see more Russian units arriving in theater much sooner than expected. Additionally, many of the units originally committed to Ukraine have been off the front for refitting and resting. The scale and pace of Russia’s new force generation is likely to shock people. On the whole, the timing of Russia’s manpower surge coincides with the depletion of Ukrainian capabilities.
Ukraine spent the summer sending its 2nd tier conscripts to the front in the Donbas as it lovingly collected NATO-donated weapons and trained units in the rear. With generous NATO help, Ukraine was able to accumulate forces for two full scale offensives - one in Kherson (which failed spectacularly) and one in Kharkov (which succeeded in pushing past the Russian screening force and reaching the Oskil). Much of that carefully accumulated fighting power is now gone or degraded. Rumors circulated of a third offensive towards Melitipol, but Ukraine does not seem to have the combat power to achieve this, and strong Russian forces are in the region behind prepared defensive lines.
On the whole, therefore, Ukraine’s window for offensive operations has closed, and what remains is closing quickly. The last zone of intense Ukrainian operations is around Lyman, where aggressive Ukrainian attacks have so far failed to either storm or encircle the town. It is still possible that they take Lyman and consolidate control of Kupyansk, but this would likely represent the culmination of Ukrainian offensive capability. For now, the area around Lyman is a killing zone that exposes attacking Ukrainian troops to Russian air and ground fires.

The large scale view of force ratios is as follows:
Ukraine has spent much of the combat power that they accumulated with NATO help during the summer, and will have an urgent need to reduce combat intensity for refitting and rearming at precisely the same time that Russian combat power in the theater begins to surge.
Simultaneously, NATO’s ability to arm Ukraine is on the verge of exhaustion. Let’s look at this more closely.

Depleting NATO​

One of the more fascinating aspects of the war in Ukraine is the extent to which Russia has contrived to attrit NATO military hardware without fighting a direct war with NATO forces. In a previous analysis I referred to Ukraine as a vampiric force which has reversed the logic of the proxy war; it’s a black hole sucking in NATO gear for destruction.
There are now very limited stockpiles to draw from to continue to arm Ukraine. Military Watch Magazine noted that NATO has drained the old Warsaw Pact tank park, leaving them bereft of Soviet tanks to donate to Ukraine. Once these reservoirs are fully tapped, the only option will be giving Ukraine western tank models. This, however, is much harder than it sounds, because it would require not only extensive training of tank crews, but also an entirely different selection of ammunition, spare parts, and repair facilities.
Tanks are not the only problem, however. Ukraine is now staring down the barrel (heh heh) of a serious shortage of conventional tube artillery. Earlier in the summer, the United States donated 155mm howitzers, but with stockpiles of both guns and shells dwindling, they’ve recently been forced to turn to lower caliber towed trash. After the announcement of yet another aid tranche on September 28th, the USA has now put together five consecutive packages which do not contain any conventional 155mm shells. Shells for Ukraine’s Soviet vintage artillery were running low as early as June.
In effect, the effort to keep Ukraine’s artillery arm functioning has gone through a few phases. In the first phase, Warsaw Pact stockpiles of Soviet shells were drained to supply Ukraine’s existing guns. In the second phase, Ukraine was given mid-level western capabilities, especially the 155mm howitzer. Now that 155mm shells are running low, Ukraine has to make do with 105mm guns which are badly outranged by Russian howitzers and will be, in a word, doomed in any kind of counterbattery action.
As a substitute for adequate tube artillery, the latest aid package does include 18 more of the internet’s favorite meme weapon - the HIMARS Multiple Launch Rocket System. What is not explicitly mentioned in the press release is that the HIMARS systems don’t exist in current US inventories and will have to be built, and are thus unlikely to arrive in Ukraine for several years.
The increasing difficulties in arming Ukraine coincide with the rapid closing of Ukraine’s window of operational opportunity. The forces accumulated over the summer are degraded and fought out, and every subsequent rebuild of the Ukrainian first tier forces will become harder as manpower is destroyed and NATO arsenals are depleted. This depletion comes precisely as Russian force generation is surging, foretelling the Winter of Yuri.

The Winter War​

Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise. Russia is going to launch a late autumn/winter offensive and achieve significant gains. The arc of force generation (both Russia’s increasing force accumulation and Ukraine’s degradation) coincide with the approach of cold weather.
Let’s make a brief note about combat in the cold. Russia is perfectly capable of waging effective operations in the snow. Going back to World War Two, the Red Army was more than capable of offensive success during the winter, starting in 1941 with the general counteroffensive at Moscow, again in 1942 with the destruction of the German 6th Army at Stalingrad, and in 1943-44 with two successful large scale offensives beginning in the winter. Now, of course World War Two is not directly applicable in all ways, but we can establish that from a technical standpoint there is a clearly established capability to wage operations in cold weather.
We also have more recent examples. In 2015, during the first Donbas War, LNR and DNR forces launched a pincer operation which successfully encircled a Ukrainian battalion at the Battle of Debaltseve. And, of course, the Russo-Ukrainian War begin in February, when much of northern Ukraine was below freezing temperatures.

Nice Move

Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility - vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground. From 1941-43, German troops celebrated the arrival of spring, because the thaw promised to bog the Red Army down in mud and slow their momentum. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.
As for where Russia will choose to commit its newly generated forces, there are four realistic possibilities, which I will enumerate in no particular order:
  1. Reopening the Northern Front with an operation around Kharkov. The attractiveness of this option is clear. A Russian move in force towards Kharkov would immediately collapse all of Ukraine’s gains towards the Oskil by compromising their rear areas.
  2. An offensive on Nikolayev out of the Kherson region. This would move further towards the goal of a landlocked Ukraine, and would take advantage of the fact that Ukrainian forces in this region are badly chewed up after their own failed offensive.
  3. Massive commitment to the Donbas to finish the liberation of DNR territory by capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. This is less likely, as Russia has demonstrated comfort with the slow tempo of operations on this front.
  4. A push north from the Melitopol area towards Zaparozhia. This would safeguard the nuclear powerplant and end any credible threats to the land bridge to Crimea.
Other possibilities I regard as unlikely. A second advance on Kiev would make little operational sense, as it would not support any of the existing fronts. I would expect action around Kiev only if the new force generation is significantly larger than the headline number of 300,000. Otherwise, Russia’s winter offensives are likely to be concentrated on mutually supporting fronts. I think some movement to reopen the northern is likely, as it would completely compromise Ukraine’s gains in the Izyum-Kupyansk direction. There are rumors that forces are being moved into Belarus, but I actually think the Chernigov-Sumy axis would be more likely than a new Kiev operation, as it could be supportive of an offensive on Kharkov.

Potential Axes of Winter Advance (Base Map Credit: @War_Mapper)
On the broadest level, it is clear that Ukraine’s window to conduct offensive operations is nearing its close, and the force generation ratios on the ground are going to swing decisively in Russia’s favor through the winter.

Nordstream and Escalation​

As we were pondering these developments on the ground, yet another plotline emerged underwater. The first hint that something was amiss was the news that pressure in the Nordstream 1 pipeline was dropping mysteriously. It was then revealed that the pipeline - along with the non-operational Nordstream 2 - had suffered serious damage. Swedish seismologists recorded explosions on the floor of the Baltic Sea, and it was revealed that the pipelines are heavily damaged.
Let’s be frank about this. Russia did not blow up its own pipelines, and it is ludicrous to suggest that they did. The importance of the pipeline to Russia lay in the fact that it could be switched on and off, providing a mechanism for leverage and negotiation vis a vis Germany. In the classic carrot and stick formulation, one cannot move the donkey if the carrot is blown up. The *only* feasible scenario in which Russia might be responsible for the sabotage would be if some hardliner faction within the Russian government felt that Putin was moving too slowly, and wanted to force an escalation. This would imply, however, that Putin is losing internal control, and there is no evidence whatsoever for such a theory.
And so, we return to elementary analysis, and ask: Cui bono? Who benefits? Well, considering Poland celebrated the opening of a new pipeline to Norway only a few days ago, and a certain former Polish MP cryptically thanked the United States on Twitter, it is fair to make a few guesses.

The first lesson of doing crimes is not to brag about it on twitter
Let us briefly meditate on the actual implications of Nordstream’s demise.
  1. Germany loses what little autonomy and flexibility it had, making it even more dependent on the United States.
  2. Russia loses a point of leverage over Europe, reducing the inducements to negotiation.
  3. Poland and Ukraine become even more critical transit hubs for gas.
Russia clearly perceives this as a bridge burning move of sabotage by NATO, designed to back them into a corner. The Russian government has decried it as an act of “international terrorism” and argued that the explosions occurred in areas “controlled by NATO” - the concatenation of these statements is that they blame NATO for an act of terrorism, without explicitly saying that. This precipitated another meeting of the Russian National Security Council.
Many western nations have advised their citizens to leave Russia immediately, suggesting they are worried about escalation (this coincides with Ukraine’s unhinged claim that Russia may be about to use nuclear weapons). For the time being, I expect Russian escalation to remain confined to Ukraine itself, likely coinciding with the deployment of additional Russian ground forces. If Russia feels compelled to undertake an out of theater escalation, targeting American satellites, digital infrastructure, or forces in Syria remain the most likely option.

On the Precipice​

I am fully cognizant that my views will be spun as “coping” after Ukraine’s gains in Kharkov oblast, but time will tell out. Ukraine is on its last legs - they drained everything usable out of NATO stockpiles to build up a first tier force over the summer, and that force has been mauled and degraded beyond repair just as Russia’s force generation is set to massively increase. Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. In the end, the United States will be left to rule over a deindustrialized and degraded Europe, and a rump Ukrainian trashcanistan sequestered west of the Dnieper.
For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.
During that operational pause, you may be tempted to ask - “is it done, Yuri?”

No, Comrade Premiere. It has only begun.


 
For anyone who hasn't yet heard Putin's speech on incorporation of the 4 republics into Russia, here it is with an English translation on subtitles. Worth downloading and keeping for posterity. If there is to be one...


Edit: Apologies, as actually this version isn't the full speech - it cuts off for some reason near the end. This is the text of what was excluded

An essentially emancipatory, anti-colonial movement against unipolar hegemony is taking shape in the most diverse countries and societies. Its power will only grow with time. It is this force that will determine our future geopolitical reality.

Friends,

Today, we are fighting for a just and free path, first of all for ourselves, for Russia, in order to leave dictate and despotism in the past. I am convinced that countries and peoples understand that a policy based on the exceptionalism of whoever it may be and the suppression of other cultures and peoples is inherently criminal, and that we must close this shameful chapter. The ongoing collapse of Western hegemony is irreversible. And I repeat: things will never be the same.

The battlefield to which destiny and history have called us is a battlefield for our people, for the great historical Russia. For the great historical Russia, for future generations, our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. We must protect them against enslavement and monstrous experiments that are designed to cripple their minds and souls.

Today, we are fighting so that it would never occur to anyone that Russia, our people, our language, or our culture can be erased from history. Today, we need a consolidated society, and this consolidation can only be based on sovereignty, freedom, creation, and justice. Our values are humanity, mercy and compassion.

And I want to close with the words of a true patriot Ivan Ilyin: “If I consider Russia my Motherland, that means that I love as a Russian, contemplate and think, sing and speak as a Russian; that I believe in the spiritual strength of the Russian people. Its spirit is my spirit; its destiny is my destiny; its suffering is my grief; and its prosperity is my joy.”

Behind these words stands a glorious spiritual choice, which, for more than a thousand years of Russian statehood, was followed by many generations of our ancestors. Today, we are making this choice; the citizens of the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and the residents of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions have made this choice. They made the choice to be with their people, to be with their Motherland, to share in its destiny, and to be victorious together with it.

The truth is with us, and behind us is Russia!
 
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More economic sanctions,

The LME is examining the trail of an embargo on Russian metals. (french article) 10-03-2022

"The noose is tightening on Russian raw materials. After coal and oil, it will perhaps be the turn of metals to appear on a blacklist. The initiative does not come from the European Union, but from the London Metal Exchange (LME), the market that serves as a benchmark for prices worldwide. He wonders if and under what conditions he should ban deliveries of Russian metals in his vast network of warehouses around the world, revealed Bloomberg."

From LME site :

The London Metal Exchange is the world centre for the trading of industrial metals – the majority of all non-ferrous metal futures business is transacted on our platforms.
In 2021, 145 million lots were traded at the LME equating to $15.6 trillion and 3.3 billion tonnes notional, with a market open interest (MOI) high of 2.1 million lots.

A member of HKEX Group, the LME brings together participants from the physical industry and the financial community to create a robust and regulated market where there is always a buyer and a seller, :whistle: where there is always a price and where there is always the opportunity to transfer or take on risk – 24 hours a day.
Wishful thinking at its best.
 
Gazprom reported a stabilization of pressure in Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines and the stoppage of gas leaks at the damaged spots.

2 hour ago (Updated: 1 hour ago)
 
Here's quite reasonable commentary of the Ukraine conflict by Joe Rogan guest Dave Smith. He says how the picture that MSM paints of Putin is totally ridiculous, and how the official narrative doesn't make any sense. Smith talks about the US role in the Maidan coup and the need to have deeper understanding of these factors that launched the conflict, that the story can't just start when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Smith mentions the eastward expansion of Nato while breaking all the previous promises made to Russia, the deployment of missile systems near it's borders, all these continuing provocations that have pushed Russia to intervene in Ukraine. He also gives example of grotesque propaganda piece from 2014 Stephen Colbert show, where the guest Gideon Rose (Foreign Affairs editor) brags how US is openly meddling in Ukraine in order to grab the country to itself.

Smith mentions the Joe/Hunter Biden Ukraine connection via Burisma, how they were personally benefitting from the corrupted system in the aftermath of the coup (just like many other western figures are getting their share from the current "aid" i.e money laundring in Ukraine).

This clip has almost 3 million views, and although there's "nothing new" for us here on the forum, it may help some average westerner to broaden their views and open their minds little bit.

 
Curiously, I just stumbled on this unverified statement made presumably by Charles De Gaulle back in 1963:
This statement comes from a De Gaulle interview:

“The truth is that Americans will end up being hated by everyone. Even by their most unconditional allies. [...] Every trickery imagined by the Americans are contradicted by events. »

— Conversation between Charles de Gaulle and Alain Peyrefitte in the Golden Salon of the Élysée Palace on November 6, 1963
— Charles de Gaulle quoted by Alain Peyrefitte, It was de Gaulle (1997), ed. Editions de Fallois/Fayard, 1997 (ISBN 9782213594583), t. 2, p. 38
 
From ZeroHedge:

Gas-Hungry Germany Approves Arms Deal With Saudi Arabia
German media reported on 29 September that Berlin has approved a number of new weapons export deals with Saudi Arabia, in defiance of a 2018 ban over Riyadh’s brutal war in Yemen. In a letter to the Bundestag, the country’s Economy Minister, Robert Habeck, said that the deals were approved by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz just before his recent visit to Saudi Arabia.

The German export licenses fall under a joint export program with Spain, Italy, and the UK, Habeck’s letter specifies, and will allow Riyadh to buy equipment and ammunition for Eurofighter and Tornado warplanes amounting to around $35 million.
[...]
The weapons export deals come at a time when Germany is scrambling to boost relations with energy exporting countries, as the country faces a major economic catastrophe after losing access to Russian fuel.

Scholz set off on a tour of the Gulf states last month, which began in Saudi Arabia on 24 September, in a bid to diversify Germany’s energy supply.

This mission became ever more urgent since the sabotage attack that targeted the Kremlin’s Nord Stream pipelines this week. The loss of Russian fuel has pushed several German industries to the brink of collapse, and it has also forced Berlin to nationalize one of the nation’s main energy providers to save it from bankruptcy.
 
That he is not a leader in his own right. In the past he was put in the position of presidential power and may be put in this position again, but the success of his ruling and influence on Russia will be dependant on the quality of people who will be de facto running the country in the background. It's nothing unusual, but still very unfortunate, after having a real leader in power for so long.
The reply became Vladimir Putin in the Cassiopaean transcripts.
 
German satire has found out who sabotaged the Nord Stream:
1664821124148.png
The German text translates as:

The sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and 2 has now been cleared up !!! So much for the USA...this photo was taken the day before yesterday on the beach at Bornholm.
Source for this picture, (though maybe not the original?) Die Sabotage an Nordstream 1 und 2 hat sich nun aufgeklärt..

The Olsen Gang was a group of three actors who made 14 Danish comedy films in the period from 1968-1998. I don't know from which film this is taken
 
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