
Military Situation On Donetsk Front On 28 April 2022 And Forecast Of Conflict's Development
Fierce fighting continues in the area south of Izyum along the entire perimeter of the Russian bridgehead. There are tactical...

MILITARY SITUATION ON DONETSK FRONT ON 28 APRIL 2022 AND FORECAST OF CONFLICT’S DEVELOPMENT
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Fierce fighting continues in the area south of Izyum along the entire perimeter of the Russian bridgehead. There are tactical advances of the Russian and DPR Armed Forces almost everywhere.
According to available reports, the fiercest fighting is taking place on the right flank of the offensive, near the village of Velyka Kamyshevakha, as well as at the “cutting edge” of the offensive, in the centre of the bridgehead, near the village of Novaya Dmytrivka. After capturing Novaya Dmitrovka, the Russian troops will approach directly to the Barvenkovo-Slaviansk highway and threaten to cut it off.
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The fighting is continuous in character. The AFU has enough manpower to prevent Russian troops from making a deep breakthrough anywhere, despite the lengthening of the front line in this area.
At the same time, the Ukrainian armed forces continue to pull back their units from the remaining bridgehead on the left bank of the Seversky Donets – from the Liman-Yampil area and the Severodonetsk salient, retaining their most advanced positions to the east between Severodonetsk and Popasna, where fierce fighting continues.
It is likely that the AFU will soon leave Liman and withdraw its troops to reinforce the flanks of its grouping – near Barvenkovo and Sloviansk.
The Russian and DPR Armed Forces were unable to prevent this and encircle the AFU units.
On the whole, despite heavy losses, the AFU units are defending competently and persistently. The Ukrainian command staked on buying time and inflicting maximum losses on the advancing units of the Russian Armed Forces and the L/DPR.
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The Russian troops ahead of them will face a huge and pre-prepared Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which has been prepared for a prolonged defence. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will definitely not surrender it until the last opportunity, defending it as a “besieged fortress”. Military experts note that the fate of the remnants of the Mariupol garrison is very important in this connection. If they are freed or interned, the garrison of Sloviansk-Kramatorsk will defend just as long and hard.
In the south, near Gulyai Polje and Orekhovo, the situation is without significant change. The southern part of the “pincers” of the advancing Russian units has stalled.
Near Donetsk, in the central area, the situation is generally unchanged too. There is a calm in most areas. Intense fighting is taking place only in the area north of Avdeevka, where the DPR Armed Forces have had some tactical successes.
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Overall, it is worth expecting that intense fighting in Donbass will continue for many weeks. This could allow the AFU to carry out wide maneuvering of its strategic reserves, which Kiev is now building up on the basis of both mobilized Ukrainian citizens and numerous units of NATO military personnel who arrive in Ukraine under the guise of foreign volunteers or mercenaries.
A particular threat exists for Transnistria. Around this small unrecognised republic, on the one side, the Polish, Romanian and Moldovan armed forces are concentrating thousands of troops, while on the other side the Ukrainian armed forces are deploying new units formed by foreigners, including Turkish nationalists from the far-right organisation Grey Wolves.
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NATO countries have stepped up arms deliveries to Kiev, including heavy military equipment and advanced weaponry. The likelihood that the conflict in Ukraine will escalate into a full-scale direct and open war between NATO and Russia by the summer of 2022 is extremely high. Recent statements and actions of the US and EU leadership show that the decision to enter into a war with Russia soon is likely to have been made.On 28 April, the Polish Defence Ministry announced that there would be intensive movement of convoys with equipment in the country’s north and east from 1 May until the end of the month due to “military exercises”.
Earlier, the Russian intelligence service stated that the Polish military’s priority “combat tasks” would include the gradual seizure of control over strategic facilities in western Ukraine.
Poland is in discussions with the US administration over an upcoming action to “reunite” with western Ukraine. According to Warsaw’s estimates, the entrenchment of the Polish military in western Ukraine is highly likely to split the country.