The PM markets remain on pace... .currently the paper trade has halted momentum a little as those support trendlines catch up... the gd sales like Canada's is like that little boy sticking his thumb in the dike.... as the tsunami approaches.... it's so crazy it has a sense of beauty to it all.... contrived/engineered chaos.... we are watching that SG endtimes chaos generation script in action.... outing the old, introducing us to the need for their new one.... while most of the herd pay no attention at all if they aren't personally affected.... which is typical anyway... it's all happening in slow motion... maybe so they can maintain control of the chaos they generate. The West will soon run out of these gold sales, gold steals etc..... like in the other commodity markets... the 'pump' is about to end.... so next is the 'dump'.... reversal.
Kind of hard for the OWO Trump and his cronies in COngress to publicly do the same as Canada and sell what's left of the gold reserves... but we may see just that soon enough.... and few of the puppets and pundits will say a thing, unless scripted to do so..... crazy cool, no?
But the charts don't lie... looks like the next gravity test up will do the trick, though it could be a slow grind at the next inflection point before it punches thru.... and the other markets do a reversal pattern...
I have a slightly different take on this that may be worth sharing here.
Also please forgive the amount of charts I'm gonna post, they are just a good way of seeing where things are going.
First of all many are certain that US equities markets have reached a top. The crash is always just round the corner, year after year, "the big one" is coming. As we know here on the forum between the Earth Changes, comets and the crazy people, something big is coming and it's likely to end spectacularly in a catastrophic way like with previous civilisations. BUT timing matters. Nobody knows if this is all coming in 5 years, 10 years, by 2030 or whatever.
So below are a few data points to consider on poor timing and missed financial opportunities, a lot of which is intuitive and obvious if you can drop the bias, but dropping bias is the difficult part as I have learned the hard way.
Obviously people hold gold for different reasons, but if you're doing it for profit seeking reasons this might be some useful info.
On the 20th November 2008 the low of the financial crisis was in, though few knew it. Since then 3765 days have passed and as you probably know, for the most part stocks and indexes have done nothing but rise.
That's 3756 daily candles on a standard chart, and 3756 attempts by Zerohedge to call the end of the US stock bull run - so far all wrong.
So it could be said that on any given day, the odds of you making a correct call for THE market top were more than 1/3765. Not exactly a good bet to make.
Since the lows the Dow Jones is up 300%, Nasdaq 600% and the SPX, (which bottomed at 666), is up 320%. That's pretty decent money even if you used no leverage and didn't pick any individual winning stocks.
But what if we zoom out a bit more?
Dow Jones Index all-time logarithmic chart:
Yikes that's a 100+ year bull run! Well they're clearly not messing around. OK so now the odds of calling the top of this are pretty much negligible. Notice that throughout each period you had plenty of reasons to think the end was near, and people had plenty of reasons to poop their pants and panic sell. This chart contains all the participants' worries about the great depression, world war 2, Vietnam war, the cold war, stagflation, global warming, the war on terror etc. You even have to squint a bit to see Black Monday (just under the Leg 2 label).
Anyone staring at reality without bias will see that we are now in a very impulsive break up from the "war on terror" decade of stagnation (the final blue square), with a good retest in 2016, and are now really getting into the 3rd leg. And what tech innovations do we have on the horizon that could fuel it? Cold war 2, space race 2, asteroid mining, 5g, driverless vehicles, foldable phones, AI and a bunch of other stuff that's probably bad for us but which will be pushed and wanted anyway.
All the while everyone is too scared to buy because they are convinced the end is just around the corner. I mean it could be, but you're only gonna get that call correct once and even then it may turn out to be a hollow victory.
In the most recent panic at the end of 2018, everyone was once again convinced the end was here. But what did we see? Plunge protection stepped in and bought it all up, while holders panic sold. They basically stopped out an entire country. And they can do it because central banks can print money to buy assets as much as they want. Something very similar happened in the 80's before Leg 2 by the way.
Point is there's a good chance it continues the trend. The long term chart shows a structured and deliberate pump with regular shakeouts, that's it. Keep it simple until data changes.
Returns of buying the NASDAQ vs. buying gold at the 2008 lows:
It goes without saying that stocks have out-performed gold over the past decade, but charts show it best.
Ratio of Gold to S&P500:
Notice that it is in a pretty steep downtrend and so far has shown only weak, if any, signs of reversal as of yet and plenty more room to fall.
So there's all that.
Now more on gold. Things tend to go in cycles and markets follow cycles too. Whether "natural" or engineered they always do it and its a seemingly permanent feature of our reality. You can make a good argument that gold is just in a normal crash cycle (bubble).
It looks just like any bubble chart, which all come out similar in a fractal way regardless of time frame or asset. You knew there was euphoria on gold in 2011 when every radio ad was somebody offering to give you Cash4Gold, buy your old jewelry etc. Below are some examples of bubbles on different time-frames. The pattern tends to repeat no matter what:
Dotcom NASDAQ crash cycle:
Chinese stock crash cycle:
Bitcoin crash cycle:
Random cryptocurrency pair from just 1 day ago (each candle 5 minutes):
And finally, GOLD Inflation adjusted:
So actually you'll see gold had a very good run in the early 2000s (war on terror fear period) and made a lot of people some nice profits. But as cycles come and go, so does the gold cycle.
It's down significantly since the peak and has since been stuck in this stagnation area, where it moves up just enough to get gold bugs excited before being smacked back down. This period has lasted 6 years
. It's no joke. If you were holding gold for this time with the intention of profits you have made no money, actually lost money to inflation, and lost much more than that through opportunity cost (staying out of the stock market).
It could go on a crazy run and invalidate this whole cycle, but the probability of that looks low. That whole 6 year period could prove to be an accumulation zone and the Russians and Chinese are gonna pump it or something. But until proper moves start happening, that is just a hope. Markets often don't go in the direction that the majority of participants are hoping.
Here's how I'd play it based on current data, subject to change, not advice or anything:
The oft-used response to this is that PM prices are artificially suppressed and equities are pumped with fake money and an ever devaluing dollar. Of course this is correct. All markets are rigged in some way but that doesn't mean you just ignore reality as it is and talk about an imagined world where markets are not rigged and PMs are "allowed" to reach their "true" price etc.