Near-Earth objects and close calls


The Living Force
FOTCM Member

The 2022 AE1 impact on Earth could occur on July 4, 2023, but is estimated at 1 in 1700.​

In early January, astronomers from the Mount Lemmon Observatory in Arizona discovered the asteroid 2022 AE1, which has the highest risk of impact with the Earth among all known near-Earth objects. Data on the space body are given on the website of the Center for the Study of Near-Earth Objects (CNEOS) of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) NASA.

Asteroid 2022 AE1 can be compared to a hypothetical Tunguska meteorite – its size is about 70 meters. The object is moving at a speed of 19.83 kilometers per second.

Currently, the asteroid has received one point on the Turin hazard scale, which is determined based on the mathematical probability of a collision and the kinetic energy of a collision from zero (in the case when the probability of a collision below observational error) to ten (when impact is imminent).

A potential 2022 AE1 impact on Earth is possible on July 4, 2023 and is estimated at one in 1700.

An asteroid with maximum impact risk is approaching Earth

Photo: ssd.jpl.

The orbit of asteroid 2022 AE1 on 19.01 2022

It was previously reported that NASA launched the first spacecraft to deliberately the purpose of changing its orbit.


FOTCM Member
Thanks for that Mari, i hadn't read anything about that asteroid.

However, according to an update just yesterday, asteroid 2022 AE1 is no longer considered to be the high risk it was since its discovery on January 6th 2022:

With its discovery, the asteroid 2022 AE1 shot up to number one in the risk lists of Nasa and Esa. It is now clear that the asteroid will not pose a threat to Earth any time soon.

Update from Friday, January 21st, 2022: For about two weeks, the asteroid 2022 AE1 stayed at number one on Nasa and Esa’s risk list – now it has been completely deleted from the lists. Since its discovery, the asteroid, shot to the top of the risk lists due to two possible calculated impacts on Earth in 2023 and 2028, has been closely watched. Now it is clear: the two dates that were considered possible impacts on Earth can be ruled out.

According to the new calculations, the asteroid will only come close to Earth on December 29, 2146 – and then only by about 1.56 million kilometers. The asteroid no longer poses a threat and has been removed from risk lists – just as expected.

Wiki has also updated its page:

2022 AE1 is a Tunguska event-sized near-Earth asteroid that was discovered on 6 January 2022 when it was 0.09 AU (13 million km) from Earth.[1] On 9 January 2022 with an observation arc of 3 days it was rated with a Torino scale of 1 for a virtual impactor on 4 July 2023
On 20 January 2022 with a 16-day observation arc, using JPL #11 the Sentry Risk Table dropped the asteroid to Torino scale 0 and then later that day JPL #12 resulted in it being removed from the risk table.

Although, maybe even these latest calculations could be subject to change.


The Living Force
FOTCM Member


The Living Force
FOTCM Member

Burning meteor lights up Croatian night sky

Jan 26, 2022

The Croatian Astronomical Union reported that a meteor glowing like a new moon burned over Croatia last night at around 6pm, and according to preliminary results, nothing is left of it because it burned completely in the atmosphere northwest of Zadar.

“Considering the numerous reports and inquiries from citizens, we would like to inform you that a meteor of brightness like the new Moon, which was moving at a speed of about 22 kilometres per second, burned above Croatia tonight at around 6 pm,” the statement said.

The meteor was recorded by the cameras of the Global Meteor Network, and according to preliminary results, nothing is left of it, as it burned completely in the atmosphere northwest of Zadar.

According to the calculation of the orbit, the object is sporadic, i.e. it does not belong to any known meteor group, and it came from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

Meteor over Zadar / Facebook - Croatian Astronomical Union




The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Super-bright meteor spotted over England and Scotland
More than 250 people reported seeing the space rock hurtling across the night sky
Jan 30, 2022
Meteors are pieces of debris from space that burn up in Earth’s atmosphere, causing a bright streak across the skies and appearing as "shooting stars".

Many Twitter users also reported seeing the space rock, which flew across the sky for about six seconds.

“I saw it in Banstead. Absolutely incredible – bright ball with a glowing green front edge and long white tail. Couldn't believe what I was seeing!” said Twitter user Janie Walker.

Una Hogan, posted on the messaging site to say: “Saw this blue-tailed fireball on our way from Glasgow to Edinburgh this evening. Looked like it was

GREAT BOLID OVER CASTILLA Y LEÓN #SPMN290122G captured at 23h26m09s TUC. It has been so bright that it has been seen from the entire peninsula. Here we see it very far away captured by A.J. Oak trees@AJ_Robles from Estepa, #Seville. More details here:
2) #SPMN290122G IT HAS BEEN A SPORADIC BOLIDE but its trajectory, radiant and similar to a flare show fragility and cometary origin. Fernando Cabrerizo @FerCabPal reported that it was literally daytime. This is how Jaime Izquierdo captured it @Fisicas_UCM
@ObservaUCMfrom Madrid
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