Near-Earth objects and close calls

Mari

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I just watched the SOTT summary and, boy, to me it looked like a serious increase in meteor fireballs reported.

And they look more bright and flashy than a few months back - so that would mean that they are bigger...
Ok, we were (still are) in the meteor showers so I have to take that into consideration as well.

Then I went to count, so I counted reports of fireballs from SOTT summaries:
June 6
July 10
Aug 12
Sep 7
Oct 12
Nov 29 --> if I counted correctly in the video, other numbers I took from the SOTT sheet.

Note that there weren´t so many reports of fireballs during Perseids' shower in summer compared to now November Leonids, combined with "reactivated" Andromedids...
 

Laurentien2

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I just watched the SOTT summary and, boy, to me it looked like a serious increase in meteor fireballs reported.

And they look more bright and flashy than a few months back - so that would mean that they are bigger...
Ok, we were (still are) in the meteor showers so I have to take that into consideration as well.

Then I went to count, so I counted reports of fireballs from SOTT summaries:
June 6
July 10
Aug 12
Sep 7
Oct 12
Nov 29 --> if I counted correctly in the video, other numbers I took from the SOTT sheet.

Note that there weren´t so many reports of fireballs during Perseids' shower in summer compared to now November Leonids, combined with "reactivated" Andromedids...

No wonder why the they are reactivating the cold war and all the theater about potential conflic. They know what is coming and they hope they can hide it. Hubris. When I say they, I mean all of them, including Russia. Soon a cold war won't be enough, they will need a hot war and they know it. Let take a seat and enjoy the last chapter. Not much else we can do anyway.
 

Chad

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
I just watched the SOTT summary and, boy, to me it looked like a serious increase in meteor fireballs reported.

And they look more bright and flashy than a few months back - so that would mean that they are bigger...
Ok, we were (still are) in the meteor showers so I have to take that into consideration as well.

Then I went to count, so I counted reports of fireballs from SOTT summaries:
June 6
July 10
Aug 12
Sep 7
Oct 12
Nov 29 --> if I counted correctly in the video, other numbers I took from the SOTT sheet.

Note that there weren´t so many reports of fireballs during Perseids' shower in summer compared to now November Leonids, combined with "reactivated" Andromedids...

To my knowledge, what appears in the SOTT summaries is a selection of the phenomena that has occurred each month, and of those that have video (sometimes photographic) documentation. It's not necessarily all of the events that occurred, whether that be fireballs, floods, or whatever. This month's summary did feature more fireball footage, but that doesn't mean the month had more fireballs than others; if that's what you meant by the above?

SOTT's Fire In The Sky section is kept well up to date, but even that doesn't have every fireball event either.

For a more accurate tracker of fireball events, some members have been trawling through the data and kindly providing us with a summary, broken down by year, month, and so on, and i believe the most recent one (minus Japan's data which came out later) is from 2020, and it can be found at this link.

Here's a snippet from what i believe is the most recent post:

Now we are on earth itself! Note: The 2020 Data for Japan is not published yet (when we are lucky in will be available in March/April). So those two charts/graphs haven't been updated yet (but will be, as soon as the data is available). Other than that: 2020 is another all-time record year! This time in all departments except the number of reports!

All Data and Graphs (Moons, NEOs, NEAs, NECs, PHAs, Fireballs etc)

D = Earth Impact: Fireballs

Graph "12 = USA: Reported vs. Confirmed Fireballs from the American Meteor Society":
1639221415509.png
View attachment 41533

{snip}
 

Mari

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

Comet Leonard, the brightest of the year, is fading and acting strange​


Astronomers first spotted what's been dubbed Comet Leonard in January 2021, and soon skywatchers were eagerly anticipating December and January, when the comet was due to pass by first Earth, then the sun. But by late November, observers noticed something strange. The comet should be getting brighter as it approaches the sun — and it is, but apparently only because it's getting closer to Earth, not because it's becoming inherently brighter.


Instead, it seems to be fading.

"It's not great news. The comet should be brighter and brighter," Quanzhi Ye, an astronomer at the University of Maryland who specializes in comets, told Space.com. "If it's not getting brighter then something's wrong, but we don't know exactly what at this stage."


Based on what they've seen from previous comets, scientists worry that Comet Leonard's strange dimming means the iceball may be doomed. In the past, some comets that have broken apart have faded even as they fly closer to the sun — it's been the first sign that something is happening.


"Why it's fading, there are all kinds of hypotheses," Ye said. "The simplest and the most obvious one is something unhealthy is happening to the comet."


The most likely hypothesis, he said, is that Comet Leonard is already splitting up, or it will begin to do so soon. But other factors could be to blame. For example, the comet could simply be running out of ice for the sun to vaporize, although Ye thinks that's unlikely. "It seems to be too coincidental," he said.


Nevertheless, it's too early to call Comet Leonard a goner.


"The images I've seen from this morning [Dec. 7], the comet still seems to be OK — morphologically it looks fine. But the intrinsically fading trend is still continuing," Ye said. "Time will tell, we don't know at this point."


Ye said that the first sign a comet is doomed is that it loses its ion tail, a stream of charged particles pointing from the comet in the direction opposite the sun. That feature could disappear within a few hours of a comet breaking apart.


Comet Leonard makes its closest approach to Earth on Sunday (Dec. 12); its perihelion, or closest approach to the sun, comes on Jan. 3. Although the sun's influence will ease up after Jan. 3, the comet isn't necessarily safe even if it survives that long.


"Comets do all sorts of weird things," Ye said. "Sometimes they disintegrate before reaching perihelion, sometimes after, and there are even hypotheses saying that comets can disintegrate when they're farther out from the sun. So we won't know until we see it happen."


There are several factors that could break apart a comet, Ye noted. The gravitational tug of the sun or a large planet could pull it apart, sure, but the comet's heart could also implode. If the comet's material vaporizes in quite the right way, it could speed up the comet's spin so dramatically that the iceball flies to pieces.

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And if Comet Leonard does break apart, scientists may never know what was the culprit. "Usually for individual comets it's hard to determine which is the dominant driver," Ye said.
 

Mari

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
To my knowledge, what appears in the SOTT summaries is a selection of the phenomena that has occurred each month, and that has video (sometimes photographic) documentation. It's not necessarily of all of the events, whether that be fireballs, floods, or whatever. This month's summary did feature more fireball footage, but that doesn't mean the month had more fireballs than others; if that's what you meant by the above?
Yes, you are right and yes I know that SOTT displays a selection of, let's say, the brightest ones we "caught". I translate "Fire in the sky" for hr.sott so I know there is much more than the selection presented in the video.

What hit me this time is the amount of these "caught" AND very bright fireballs. I should have been more detailed in my post, I was very excited after watching the video, sorry,... :-[
 

Cosmos

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
For a more accurate tracker of fireball events, some members have been trawling through the data and kindly providing us with a summary, broken down by year, month, and so on, and i believe the most recent one (minus Japan's data which came out later) is from 2020, and it can be found at this link.

Here's a snippet from what i believe is the most recent post:

Yes, and the Japan Data can also be found there now. It came out later and was added accordingly when it was published. In Japan, 2020 was also the record year.
 

Puma

The Living Force
No wonder why the they are reactivating the cold war and all the theater about potential conflic. They know what is coming and they hope they can hide it. Hubris. When I say they, I mean all of them, including Russia. Soon a cold war won't be enough, they will need a hot war and they know it. Let take a seat and enjoy the last chapter. Not much else we can do anyway.
Yep, seems hot war is coming to hide "Celestial intentions"

 
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