October 18, 2023
Today, Armenia's drift towards the Euro-Atlantic continues. Pashinyan’s provocative and defiant speech in the European Parliament (with accusations against Russia not only of “surrendering Karabakh”, but also of “undermining democracy” in Armenia) and his other actions indicate his intentions to maximally integrate the country into EU and, possibly, NATO projects.
Against this background, France is showing particular activity, which looks like an attempt at geopolitical revenge following the loss in Niger, where long-term French dominance is ending extremely ingloriously. Paris has to withdraw its troops in extremely cramped conditions. [
see here and following posts]
...It is a complex and expensive operation that will cost the French budget 400 million euros and could jeopardize next year's defense budget.
Paris' efforts to enter the Great Game in Transcaucasia may be an attempt to take geopolitical revenge for the humiliations suffered. Moreover, the situation in Armenia itself is favorable for this.
The final resolution of the “Karabakh issue” by Azerbaijan coincided with the intensification of French-Armenian relations. Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian said that Armenia needs a “good military partner” and is discussing with France the issue of providing military assistance to confront Azerbaijan. As you might guess, by “bad” partner Khachaturian means Russia.
Baku responded to France's intervention.
Ilham Aliyev warned that France would be guilty of a new confrontation in the Caucasus due to the decision to supply military equipment to Armenia. The warning was made in a telephone conversation with the head of the European Council, Charles Michel. The President of Azerbaijan said that
France's readiness to supply weapons to Armenia does not contribute to peace, but to a new conflict in the region.
Aliyev also notified Michel that eight Karabakh villages were currently “under Armenian occupation” and emphasized “the importance of their liberation.” That is, not only the legal, but also the actual taking of control over Karabakh does not mean the resolution of all of Azerbaijan’s territorial claims against Armenia.
Baku refused to participate in a five-party meeting with Armenia, France, Germany and the European Union in Granada, Spain, which took place on October 5. The Azerbaijani agency APA reported that the reason for the refusal was the pro-Armenian statements of French officials, the visit of French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna to Armenia and the accusations of the head of the European Council Charles Michel against Azerbaijan. In addition, according to media reports, France and Germany did not allow Turkey, which was invited by Baku, to participate in the negotiations.
The geopolitical context of what is happening is clear. Azerbaijan is a relatively large potential supplier of gas, in which the European Union is interested, as well as a necessary territory for any infrastructure and logistics projects that involve the movement of goods to Central Asia and back, bypassing Russia.
In addition, the EU is aware of the extent of the partnership between Turkey and Azerbaijan. Strengthening Ankara through access to the Caspian Sea is not in the interests of the Europeans.
Accordingly, the continuing territorial claims of Azerbaijan should provoke a European reaction - Europe needs to strengthen Armenia in order for the strategic situation with the buffer Armenia between Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea on the one hand, and Turkey on the other, to be maintained.
In this case, Russia’s fears are not caused by specific types of weapons that France intends to sell to Armenia (weapons must be purchased as a whole and Yerevan does not have the money for this), but by the very fact of such agreements. The deal could become Yerevan’s next step away from Russia with the subsequent filling of the vacated space with Western interests.
France in this case is the natural “tip of the spear.” It is Paris that is Ankara's most consistent opponent. France regularly raises the topic of the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire, so the information background is quite favorable for cooperation with Yerevan.
The American publication 19fortyfive notes that
as Turkey and the United States move away from each other, Washington is now looking to Paris as NATO's main partner in power projection. In practice, this is expressed, for example, in joint anti-terrorist operations in the Sahel. Washington supports Paris in the diplomatic and military fields, trying to make up for the influence lost by France in its former colonies - after all, the
expulsion of France from Africa indirectly affects Washington’s interests.
It is known that literally on the eve of Azerbaijan’s successful offensive, Armenia managed to initiate military exercises with the United States. And, according to the same specialized information and analytical resource, Armenia has the potential to become a major NATO ally outside the alliance, akin to South Korea, Japan, Israel or Ukraine.
Within the framework of the updated Western paradigm,
the Washington-France-Armenia axis should become a response to the Turkey-Azerbaijan tandem, which has left the category of trusted vassals of the United States. The new axis will also be directed against Russia, because, writes 19fortyfive, Moscow is quietly moving closer to Azerbaijan, while “Armenia is drifting to the West, and French diplomacy is the main factor of interaction in this matter.
”Armenia's attempts to incorporate into the Western civilizational project under the current leadership of the country seem inevitable. Nikol Pashinyan is taking Armenia by leaps and bounds from the sphere of civilizational influence of Russia and the single space formed in recent years (CSTO, EAEU, numerous trade and cultural, confessional and social ties). But this movement is not into the void, but towards one of the specific centers of power existing on the planet. That is, a Euro-Atlantic center, whose opinion is expressed by France.
On October 14, Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian signed a law ratifying the Rome Statute, the founding document of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Armenia signed the Rome Statute in the summer of 1998, but in 2004 the Constitutional Court declared the obligations provided for in the document to be contrary to the country's Constitution. The Armenian government will again appeal to the highest authority on the issue of the Rome Statute at the end of 2022.
The Armenian government says the ratification of the Rome Statute is conditional on Azerbaijan's "large-scale aggression" against Armenia in September 2022, as well as "a number of gross war crimes" committed on Armenian territory. Joining the ICC, Yerevan noted, will make it possible to appeal to this authority to bring Baku to justice.
These explanations do not stand up to criticism and are only convincing to the naive. After all, it was Pashinyan who renounced the territories of Nagorno-Karabakh in writing, registering them as lands of Azerbaijan. Accordingly, it is unclear what claims may be brought against Azerbaijan.
This spring, the ICC issued arrest warrants for President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s children's commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova, which means Armenia has removed itself from the list of countries where the Russian leader can go without running the risk of arrest.
Beyond the technical feasibility of this act, it remains obvious that Armenia, in fact and at the level of landmark declarations, intends not to be friends with Russia.
It cannot be ruled out that talk about a new NATO expansion will arise in the context of Armenia’s “drift” to the West, which, by the way, does not at all guarantee the security of Yerevan. After all, as Greece and Turkey showed in the mid-1970s, NATO countries can quite successfully fight among themselves. America does not interfere in these conflicts, and the outcome comes according to the principle of “the strongest wins,” followed by the implementation of the rule “woe to the vanquished."
Those in Yerevan who believe that France may intervene at “hour X” are advised to rewind the film once again and carefully look at how the escalation around Niger ended.
