Lebanon

I don't know if Sott would be interested in this article, but thought it was good.


I thought it was a good article as well. Even though it's mostly speculation on the author's part, I would tend to agree with what he says. The 'comments' were also very interesting IMO. Thanks for posting.
 
I think that they have done it quite a bit over the last years.
It is not something so big.

And what to expect from that ? Israel already invaded Lebanon and came to Beirut in 1982, probably even took the city and later on retreated in 2000 completely from the country.

Of course something could definitely happen in the future in the case of unpredicted happenings like hunger, economic collapse, another much bigger pandemic or environmental catastrophes. But if situation continues like this, and more Arab countries follow the example of UAE and Bahrain things could stay as they are. Israel can occasionally invade air space of Syria and Lebanon and sometimes bomb Gaza. Also guys from Gaza may sometimes fire their rockets.

But economic collapse in USA may trigger the idea of war and they could attack the Iran, which can also pull in Israel. And later on many different things can happen.
 

Lebanon, chaotic violent ongoing clashes right now in Beirut around the Justice Palace (Badaro/Tayyouneh side) amid a protest for Hezbollah, Amal supporters. It’s not certain who is shooting but these areas are inhabited with a majority of Lebanese Forces supporters.

So far there are two people who was shot by snipers from surrounding buildings. The military was deployed to clear the area. So far there is a 30min gunfight documented between Military Forces and militant forces/snipers (hezbollah probably which opposes the beirut-blast judge)
 
A senior Lebanese journalist has identified a US embassy employee as one of the snipers who opened fire at supporters of Hezbollah, after the Lebanon Interior Ministry confirmed that the Geagea's militia was behind the sniper killings.

17 October 2021

15 October 2021
 
'Israel's nefarious activities could lead to war with Lebanon.'

Lebanon warns Israel

5 Jun, 2022
President Michel Aoun says any effort by Israelis to tap natural gas deposits in disputed waters would be an “aggressive action”

A battle over Mediterranean waters rich in natural gas deposits bubbled up on Sunday when Lebanese President Michel Aoun warned Israel that trying to tap the offshore riches without first resolving a territorial dispute would be seen as a “provocation.”

“Any action or activity in the disputed area represents a provocation and an aggressive action,”
Aoun said on Sunday in a statement. He made his comments after a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel arrived in the disputed area, where London-based upstream firm Energean plans to start pumping gas from the Karish field under contract with the Israeli government later this year.

Aoun said he discussed the FPSO’s arrival with Prime Minister Najib Mikati and asked Lebanon’s Army Command to provide him “accurate and official data to build upon the matter.” Mikati called the situation “extremely dangerous,” saying Israel was trying to “create a new crisis, encroaching on Lebanon’s maritime wealth and imposing a fait accompli in a disputed area.”

Karish is located about 90km west of Haifa, close to the much larger gas fields of Leviathan and Tamar, and it holds reserves estimated at more than 300 million barrels of oil equivalent. Energean signed a contract in March to sell output from Karish to Israel Electric Co., the largest Israeli gas buyer.

Jerusalem has claimed that Karish is located in Israel’s exclusive economic zone, as recognized by the United Nations, and isn’t subject to the country’s territorial dispute with Lebanon. Aoun said negotiations to resolve the issue are continuing, and both countries have filed disputes with the UN regarding their overlapping maritime claims.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group has threatened to take action if Israel extracts fossil fuels in the disputed area without resolving the territorial impasse.
 
'Lebanon and Israel are on the brink of war.'

Israel won’t be allowed to extract from disputed Karish gas field if Lebanon’s rights not secured: Nasrallah

20 July 2022
The secretary general of Lebanon’s Hezbollah resistance movement says the Israeli regime will not be allowed to conduct drilling operations for oil and natural gas in the disputed area in the Mediterranean Sea until the Arab country gets what it deserves.

“Lebanon is facing a historic and golden opportunity to get out of its financial crisis. If we fail to take advantage of it, we would not be able to extract oil within the next 100 years. We are not looking for moral gains out of extraction in the Karish natural gas field. We rather want to tap into our oil reserves. There would, therefore, be no room for oil or gas extraction in the entire region if Lebanon does not get its right,” Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah addressed a group of Shia Muslim preachers and scholars in the Lebanese capital city of Beirut on Tuesday.

He said the issue is of greater importance today, as it comes in light of Europe’s need for oil and gas amid the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine and Russia's move to stop sending gas to several European countries.

The Hezbollah chief went on to stress that Lebanon does not want a war, but will not permit the Israeli regime to violate its inalienable rights.

“We would not like to cause a new military confrontation. We are only demanding our rights. We are pushing up the costs for Americans and Israelis in order to force them into surrender, because Lebanon is on the path to collapse,” Nasrallah warned.

Nasrallah highlighted that Amos Hochstein, the US mediator for indirect talks on border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel, has not yet come up with an initiative.

“Even though Lebanon has offered great concessions, it has not achieved anything tangible yet,” the Hezbollah leader said.

Earlier this month, Nasrallah said Hezbollah would not remain “silent” in the face of the Israeli regime’s efforts to plunder Lebanon’s maritime energy resources.

He made the remarks on June 9 after a vessel operated by a Greek company arrived at the Karish gas field in the eastern Mediterranean to extract gas for the occupying regime.

“The resistance cannot stay silent in the face of plunder of Lebanon’s resources. The resistance’s essential duty is to protect Lebanon’s land, waters, oil, gas, and dignity,” Nasrallah said, adding, “All options are on the table for the resistance [towards enabling such protection].”

“The enemy does not recognize the international law and resolutions,” he said, stressing that it was not the international regulations but actually “pressure, war of attrition, and resistance” that forced the occupying enemy to retreat from southern Lebanon and the Palestinian enclave of the Gaza Strip.

Lebanese politicians hope that commercially viable hydrocarbon resources off Lebanon’s coast could help the debt-ridden country out of its worst economic crisis in decades.

In February 2018, Lebanon signed its first contract for drilling in two blocks in the Mediterranean with a consortium comprising energy giants Total, Eni, and Novatek.

Lebanon and Israel took part in indirect talks to discuss demarcation in 2020. But the talks stalled after Lebanon demanded a larger area, including part of the Karish gas field, where Israel has given exploration rights to a Greek firm.

The talks were supposed to discuss a Lebanese demand for 860 square kilometers (330 square miles) of territory in the disputed maritime area, according to a map sent to the United Nations in 2011.

However, Lebanon then said the map was based on erroneous calculations and demanded 1,430 square kilometers (552 square miles) more further south, including part of Karish.
 
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