Is China Preparing a 'Special Military Operation' In Taiwan?

adam7117

Jedi Council Member
FOTCM Member
It would appear that China is making moves similar to Russia prior to the intervention in Ukraine. The legal language adopted by the CCP is eerily similar, for example, using the term 'special military operations' or 'military operations other than war'. Not all signed resolutions have been made public.

It remains to be seen what eventuates on this front - although, Taiwan is a likely target for any future military action. I am wondering what the group thinks about this, and whether we are likely to have another armed conflict on our hands in the near future.

Xi Jinping announces plans to allow Chinese military to undertake 'armed forces operations' abroad

By East Asia correspondent Bill Birtles in Taiwan
Posted Yesterday at 9:43pm, updated 9h ago9

1655295027387.png
Xi Jinping has authorised an expansion of his country's military capabilities. (Reuters: Jason Lee)

Analysts say China's leader Xi Jinping has set the legal basis for an expansion of the Chinese military's role in other countries, just weeks after Beijing signed a security pact with Solomon Islands.

With little published detail, Mr Xi's government declared he had signed off on a set of new trial outlines that allowed for Chinese "armed forces operations" that were not war.

Chairman Xi, as he is widely known in China in reference to his position as chairman of the Central Military Commission, signed off on 59 articles, according to state media, but they were not published.

Instead, government reports say they set a legal basis within China for the People's Liberation Army to "safeguard China's national sovereignty, security and development interests", according to an article in the Communist Party's media Global Times.


"Chinese troops can prevent spillover effects of regional instabilities from affecting China, secure vital transport routes for strategic materials like oil, or safeguard China's overseas investments, projects and personnel," the report in the Global Times said.

It also said the guidelines would define the military's role in activities that it already undertook, such as disaster relief, aid missions and peacekeeping.

Mr Xi's decision to promote and legally legitimise non-war "military operations" has raised eyebrows because it has come just months after Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine under the guise of a "special military operation".

Mr Putin still has not formally declared war on Ukraine despite the bloody invasion, and the timing of Mr Xi's declaration has caught the attention of observers in Taiwan, the self-ruled island that China claims ownership of.

1655295095165.png
The announcement comes after China recently said it would "fight to the very end" to stop Taiwanese independence. (Reuters: Pichi Chuang)

"I think it's definitely a copy of Putin's 'special operation' language," Eugene Kuo Yujen, an analyst with Taiwan's Institute for National Policy Research, said.

"And after what happened in Ukraine, it sends a very threatening signal to Taiwan, Japan and the surrounding countries in the South China Sea.

Wu Qiang, an independent analyst in Beijing who previously taught at China's top university Tsinghua before being ousted for political reasons, also sees parallels with Vladimir Putin's language and his territorial claims to Ukraine.

"The way Beijing looks at it, a future mission to unify Taiwan would just be a continuation of the unfinished civil war of 1949," he told the ABC.

"So this is about seeking to define a future military intervention in Taiwan as a 'non-war' operation."

Dr Kuo says Mr Xi released news of the guidelines partly to offset political infighting within the military in the lead-up to a major reshuffle of the ruling Communist Party leadership later this year.

But he also believes it is linked to the recent security pact signed with Solomon Islands and a failed effort by China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi to convince other South Pacific nations to sign on to a similar agreement.

1655295266851.png
China recently signed a security deal with Solomon Islands, which caught the US and Australia off-guard. (AP: Mark Schiefelbein, file photo)

"They never released the full text of the agreement with the Solomon Islands but the media leaked the draft details and the language about protecting Chinese interests is exactly the same," Dr Kuo said.

Despite the failure of his region-wide push for a deal, Mr Wang last week published comments, making it clear China intended to continue pursuing closer ties with South Pacific nations.

"I believe there is a link [with the Solomon Security Pact]," Wu Qiang said.

"The Solomon Islands pact allows China's military to intervene in future if there's a precarious situation, or perhaps a coup or security issue.

"So these guidelines are about creating a legal basis for China to intervene."

And the guidelines appear to legitimise Chinese military forces intervening if Beijing's growing interests abroad are threatened.

Under Mr Xi's Belt and Road initiative, Beijing has loaned tens of billions of dollars to other countries to build infrastructure, which in some cases has reverted to Chinese ownership upon debt default.

A Chinese state-owned company is seeking to upgrade an airstrip in the highly strategic South Pacific nation of Kiribati, while in Australia, private Chinese company Landbridge has taken a 99-year lease on the strategically located Port of Darwin.

Whether threats to China's involvement in such projects are covered in the new legal framework remains unclear.

The new legal guidelines come as tensions between China and the US over Taiwan increase.

1655295368271.png
Chinese state media says Mr Xi's order would provide a legal basis for protecting "property, and maintaining national sovereignty, security, development interests, and regional stability". (Reuters)

Reports have emerged that China has begun informing US counterparts at multiple levels that it does not recognise "international waters" in the Taiwan Strait.

US naval ships have this year made multiple transits through the strait, which is around 160 kilometres wide and separates China from Taiwan.

"There is no legal basis of 'international waters' in the international law of the sea," Wang Wenbin, a Chinese government spokesman, said

"It is a false claim when certain countries call the Taiwan Strait 'international waters' in order to find a pretext for manipulating issues related to Taiwan."

This move follows a previous claim from Beijing that it does not recognise a halfway "median" line in the strait that has long served to help keep Chinese and Taiwanese military jets separated.

"I think all these things are part of very integrated strategic thinking," Dr Kuo said.

Over the weekend, senior Chinese military general Wei Fenghe told a defence forum in Singapore that China would "fight to the end" to take control of Taiwan, and according to Chinese media, during a meeting with new Defence Minister Richard Marles, he reportedly also warned Australia to steer clear of the Taiwan issue.
 

bjorb

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
The legal language adopted by the CCP is eerily similar, for example, using the term 'special military operations' or 'military operations other than war'.

You cannot declare war on territories that you claim are yours. Hence special military operation.

Imagine the counter-sanctions that could possibly follow.

Perhaps the Chinese, like the Russians, will also link their currency, the Yuan, to gold, demanding that certain deposits for export be made in Yuan from then on.

Jeez, what will then be left of the dollar, the world currency. The end of the Empire is in sight.
 

Palinurus

The Living Force
Given the origin of the source it's understandable that they would think first and foremost about their own country as a possible subject to those kind of military operations. However, I'm inclined to seek a broader and more global context for the emergence of this new legal framework in China right now.

Apart from the Belt and Road initiative, China has over the years developed huge economic interests and possessions all over the globe which are vital to its economy. In the current global international climate (politically, as well as economically and financially) it seems only natural to me that China would seek a legal base and solid framework that would allow it to protect all of its foreign interests when necessary. Diplomacy doesn't count for much when it cannot be backed up by other means should the need arise; military force is just one of those other means I'm afraid.

When you try a Google search for China's economic interests abroad, you might be astonished about their vastness and variety - although it's rather difficult to find all-inclusive overviews of the full gamut.
 

Ben

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
It would appear that China is making moves similar to Russia prior to the intervention in Ukraine. The legal language adopted by the CCP is eerily similar, for example, using the term 'special military operations' or 'military operations other than war'. Not all signed resolutions have been made public.

It remains to be seen what eventuates on this front - although, Taiwan is a likely target for any future military action. I am wondering what the group thinks about this, and whether we are likely to have another armed conflict on our hands in the near future.

I agree, there's been an uptick in rhetoric from both sides. Featured more in the news, more aircraft activity etc.

We also know the C's said the probability is 'High'. Certainly looks to me that it is higher than ever.
 

Adobe

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

China's President Signs Decree: "Special Military Operations"​


"Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, recently signed an order to promulgate a set of trial outlines on military operations other than war, which will take effect on Wednesday."

The article below:

 

Adobe

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

Canada says China harassing its aircraft near North Korea​


"Canada says pilots put ‘at risk’ by Chinese warplanes on missions to monitor North Korean sanctions evasions."

"Canadian Armed Forces said in a statement on Wednesday the Chinese planes have at times flown so close they forced Canadian pilots to quickly change course to “avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft”.

Article:

 

Natus Videre

Jedi Council Member

Canada says China harassing its aircraft near North Korea​


"Canada says pilots put ‘at risk’ by Chinese warplanes on missions to monitor North Korean sanctions evasions."

"Canadian Armed Forces said in a statement on Wednesday the Chinese planes have at times flown so close they forced Canadian pilots to quickly change course to “avoid a potential collision with the intercepting aircraft”.

Article:

Did Canada really think that Chinese planes would have 'Diversity & Inclusion' stickers on their wings? :lol:
 

Haiku

Jedi Master
I believe that we are looking at a possible world order change, this is only the beginning. China is loaning more money’s to many countries that someone should take notice. This restricts many countries from being too opinionated about them. They have military buildup and expansions that are fairly impressive, and most aggressive. They are building outward and increasing their influence. From my history lessons, it seems to me that this is repeating an event that happened in WWII and the dollar took over as the world currency from the British pound. Another cyclic event?

Take a look at this video. It is all based on currency change overs that begin with a WAR. Countries start picking sides to join efforts. I believe that this is happening right now around the world. Efforts to retake areas lost in past times are happening now. Russia in Ukraine, soon to be China into it own lost areas. If China is able to bring in other countries resources, they could become a comparable force to recon with. The video is looking at financials gains and losses that drive these change-overs. In fact the review starts with the English taking over from the Dutch many years ago.

The video is 43+ minutes long, good watch. Haiku …

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio - YouTube
 

Alejo

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
Who knows, I would not dismiss the possibility out of hand, but good luck sanctioning China though, it would be double suicide.

But maybe that's what they're trying to push for in their plans for global reset or hide the strains on food production by blaming it on the necessity to sanction food and material producers... It would be a terrible idea, but somehow it would suit their narrative needs.

Or Maybe China has weighed in the possible outcomes, and what better way to continue to cut ties with the West, if the West cuts them for you.

There has been also a bit of rhetoric on this side about the need to help Taiwan, I think someone sees the very real possibility and it could in fact take hold eventually.
 

Palinurus

The Living Force
Breaking news of today: China launches EM catapults-equipped 3rd aircraft carrier in Shanghai - Global Times

CHINA / MILITARY
China launches EM catapults-equipped 3rd aircraft carrier in Shanghai

The Fujian is equipped with electromagnetic catapults

By GT staff reporters Published: Jun 17, 2022 12:01 PM Updated: Jun 17, 2022 10:11 PM

[...]

The Fujian is China's first fully domestically developed and constructed aircraft carrier with catapults. It has a flat, straight flight deck equipped with electromagnetic catapults and arresting devices, and has a full displacement of more than 80,000 tons.

Fujian is also the name of the eastern coastal province facing the island of Taiwan, leading to speculations from netizens that the carrier could play an important role in safeguarding China's sovereignty, territorial integrity and development interests in the Taiwan question.

After the launch, the carrier will start mooring trials and sea trials.

The launch is a milestone for ship construction, as it indicates that the main structure of the vessel is complete, Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times.

continued...
 

Alejo

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
As the SOTT comment went, it only makes sense considering everything they're facing.

But also, China is continuing to develop ties with several countries across the planet, this means that China is getting invested in more and more places, which means that they will need to protect themselves not only at home, but also their investments abroad, and the West isn't one to shy away from color revolutions and sabotage, so I would think that China could potentially throw in their military force along with their infrastructure development across the world.

They will replace the US in their current position, and perhaps own a lot of the world, though China seems to be creating mutually beneficial partnerships instead of vassal states. But I do think it's too early to tell what a world under China instead of the US would look like.
 
Top Bottom