Elenin growing

[HiThere]

13th feb 2011:

Q: (L) Next question. (Andromeda) Will Comet Elenin interact with and cause a major disruption of earth this year?

A: Possible yes.

Q: (Perceval) It's probably not possible to know exactly when. (L) Yeah, I think it depends on the conditions of the planet and so many other variables. It hasn't even gone through the asteroid belt yet. That traversal... The asteroid belt is between Jupiter and Mars, and it won't go through that until March and April. And of course that means it still has to pass Jupiter. (Ark) It has already passed. (L) It passed Jupiter? You're sure? (Ark) Yes, I was looking yesterday. (L) Okay. So, it's past Jupiter so they can have a better idea of the orbit, but it still has to go through the asteroid belt, and that's a crap shoot. (Andromeda) We'll have to ask closer to the time. The thing is that...

A: Elenin is already taking its toll.

Q: (Perceval) How big is it?

A: 500km diameter along the long axis.

Q: (Perceval) At least it's not Venus...

A: It is growing.

Q: [discussion of answer] (L) Anything else about it?

A: And that is only the core.


“On April 8th at our Russian observatory we carried out planned observations of Comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin). An analysis of the results of the observations shows a rapid growth of the coma. Besides the internal compact gas envelope, the forming rarified external coma is also visible in the image. Its diameter exceeds 1 minute of arc, or 80,000 km! It is possible that such a rapid growth of the coma is associated with the apparent superposition over it of the comet’s dust tail, which after opposition, still remains invisible to the earthly observer.”

_http://blog.imva.info/world-affairs/elenin

 

[Cosmos]

13th feb 2011:

Q: (L) Next question. (Andromeda) Will Comet Elenin interact with and cause a major disruption of earth this year?

A: Possible yes.

Q: (Perceval) It's probably not possible to know exactly when. (L) Yeah, I think it depends on the conditions of the planet and so many other variables. It hasn't even gone through the asteroid belt yet. That traversal... The asteroid belt is between Jupiter and Mars, and it won't go through that until March and April. And of course that means it still has to pass Jupiter. (Ark) It has already passed. (L) It passed Jupiter? You're sure? (Ark) Yes, I was looking yesterday. (L) Okay. So, it's past Jupiter so they can have a better idea of the orbit, but it still has to go through the asteroid belt, and that's a crap shoot. (Andromeda) We'll have to ask closer to the time. The thing is that...

A: Elenin is already taking its toll.

Q: (Perceval) How big is it?

A: 500km diameter along the long axis.

Q: (Perceval) At least it's not Venus...

A: It is growing.

Q: [discussion of answer] (L) Anything else about it?

A: And that is only the core.


“On April 8th at our Russian observatory we carried out planned observations of Comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin). An analysis of the results of the observations shows a rapid growth of the coma. Besides the internal compact gas envelope, the forming rarified external coma is also visible in the image. Its diameter exceeds 1 minute of arc, or 80,000 km! It is possible that such a rapid growth of the coma is associated with the apparent superposition over it of the comet’s dust tail, which after opposition, still remains invisible to the earthly observer.”

_http://blog.imva.info/world-affairs/elenin

can somebody that knows something about astronomy shedding light on that ?
I mean they suggest that the core must be 25 000 miles in diameter at the moment ? I mean damn that would be big !

 

[Possibility of Being]

can somebody that knows something about astronomy shedding light on that ?
I mean they suggest that the core must be 25 000 miles in diameter at the moment ? I mean damn that would be big !

That's not the comet's core (nucleus) which is 25,000 miles across according to them (i.e. some 3 times wider than Earth's diameter at the Equator), but Elenin's coma.

 

[Kenny McCormick]

It would be 25k miles in radius, not diameter.

 

[Cosmos]

can somebody that knows something about astronomy shedding light on that ?
I mean they suggest that the core must be 25 000 miles in diameter at the moment ? I mean damn that would be big !

That's not the comet's core (nucleus) which is 25,000 miles across according to them (i.e. some 3 times wider than Earth's diameter at the Equator), but Elenin's coma.

ok they say this:

We could estimate that the core might be half the diameter of the coma or approximately 25,000 miles.

obviously I don't understand much of that, but what would then be the size of the core ? is it possible to know or calculate that from those "Dates" ?

 

[herondancer]

Love this little weasel item on wikipedia regarding comas:

In some cases, such as the Great Comet of 1882, a comet develops a visible antitail or dust tail, which points in a different direction and when the viewing angle and parallax are just right may appear to point in the opposite direction from the normal ion tail. (emphasis mine)

Bet they've seen those sun-ward spikes that McCanny talks about more often than not, but just ignore them because they have no explanation for them in the dirty snowball model.

 

[Possibility of Being]

It would be 25k miles in radius, not diameter.

Oops, sorry! You're right, Michał. It would make the comet 6 times bigger than the Earth! Two-thirds of Saturn, WOW!

Anyway, after quoting from Leonid Elenin's spaceobs.org site about the size of the comet's coma, Mark Sircus writes:

The coma is what astronomers actually see and is actually much bigger than the core. It’s the green in the above picture that they are saying is 80,000 km or 50,000 miles across. We could estimate that the core might be half the diameter of the coma or approximately 25,000 miles. Big enough—it seems to be already stirring up the Earth under our feet.

I have no idea who those "we" are, and on what basis that (ridiculous as it seems) estimation could have been made. Couldn't find any source or explanation for that claim on Sircus's blog. For sure it's not taken from Elenin's site.

Btw., in his latest post L. Elenin writes that "the size of the comet’s coma has exceeded 100,000 km, and probably in reality the coma is still larger."

 

[seek10]

It would be 25k miles in radius, not diameter.

Oops, sorry! You're right, Michał. It would make the comet 6 times bigger than the Earth! Two-thirds of Saturn, WOW!

Anyway, after quoting from Leonid Elenin's spaceobs.org site about the size of the comet's coma, Mark Sircus writes:

The coma is what astronomers actually see and is actually much bigger than the core. It’s the green in the above picture that they are saying is 80,000 km or 50,000 miles across. We could estimate that the core might be half the diameter of the coma or approximately 25,000 miles. Big enough—it seems to be already stirring up the Earth under our feet.

I have no idea who those "we" are, and on what basis that (ridiculous as it seems) estimation could have been made. Couldn't find any source or explanation for that claim on Sircus's blog. For sure it's not taken from Elenin's site.

Btw., in his latest post L. Elenin writes that "the size of the comet’s coma has exceeded 100,000 km, and probably in reality the coma is still larger."

100k Km is too huge. I wonder the gravitational effect of this huge mass on moon, but it looks it is too far away to make serious snatch effect . Moon was at 0.0024-0.0027 AU where as elnin 's nearest path is .233 AU from earth. 100 times far way. Also more diameter doesn't mean more mass. particularly when it is gaining mass now, it takes some time for mass to solidify and become dense.

f= G * m1 * m2/r2

 

[Kenny McCormick]

I would be more careful with those estimations - few months ago diameter of the core was estimated for 1-2 km, now it is already 25k miles? In that case it would be brighter than Jupiter right now... C's said it is 500 km in longer diameter, and I think it's maximum what could be.

 

[Cosmos]

I'm interested can anybody see Elenin with a telescope.
do we have hobby astronomers here in the forum that look at it or try to find it ?

 

[seek10]

I would be more careful with those estimations - few months ago diameter of the core was estimated for 1-2 km, now it is already 25k miles? In that case it would be brighter than Jupiter right now... C's said it is 500 km in longer diameter, and I think it's maximum what could be.

they also said it is growing and also it is coming out of asteroid belt , so it could have sucked in lot of stuff . The interesting question is about the brightness.

 

[Giray Khan the Brave]

Hi all,

I've just been checking on Wikipedia: _http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C/2010_X1

Here are some highlights:

- The discoverer, Leonid Elenin, estimates that the comet nucleus is 3–4 km in diameter.
- As of 21 May 2011, the coma has exceeded 100,000 km. (I presume this is the length of the coma).
- C/2010 X1 will come to perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) on 10 September 2011.
- On 16 October 2011, the comet will pass within about 0.233 AU (34,900,000 km; 21,700,000 mi) of the Earth at a relative velocity of 86,000 km/hr.
- Until the activity level of the coma is better known it is still uncertain just how bright this comet will become.

So far this seems to be a routine astronomical 'encounter' with nothing to suggest anything unusual. I'd imagine that if this comet is different in some way from the others, this difference will show up better the closer it gets to the sun and closer to our telescopes...

 

[Kenny McCormick]

I was wondering if it would be possible for comat to have such a prolonged shape, that it would be few km wide and few hundred km long.

 

[Ca.]

13th feb 2011:
“On April 8th at our Russian observatory we carried out planned observations of Comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin). An analysis of the results of the observations shows a rapid growth of the coma. Besides the internal compact gas envelope, the forming rarified external coma is also visible in the image. Its diameter exceeds 1 minute of arc, or 80,000 km! It is possible that such a rapid growth of the coma is associated with the apparent superposition over it of the comet’s dust tail, which after opposition, still remains invisible to the earthly observer.” _http://blog.imva.info/world-affairs/elenin

In understanding the size of its mass, to give Elenin mental comparison, this article perhaps, helps to visualize the size of what it may exhibit as it approaches in the fall of this year.

It may have a couple of companion's, as well as possibly picking up a few hitchhikers on the way in due to it's gravitational pull. This would make sense of it's ability to increases in proportions before it reaches it's passing near the earth.

Also of the predicted orbit that it is to follow could be radically changed due to the other planets in the solar system, due to there gravitational influence's as well as the dark star tugging affect through Em interference with its sister sun.

And oh yeah, how about the comet cluster, and the Wave coming to add to the mix to give main stream science a dose of reality of what could be really close. A sort of galactic pinball affect.

Science Clarified: http://www.scienceclarified.com/scitech/Comets-and-Asteroids/Vital-Statistics-of-Asteroids-and-Comets.html
Vital Statistics of Asteroids and Comets

Placing three well-known asteroids (Eros, Mathilde, and Gaspra) side by side provides a dramatic illustration of their irregular shapes.

http://gustavomuler.fotografiaastronomica.com/www/images/cometas/C1010X1/C2010X1-110403-J47.jpg


miles in diameter, somewhat larger than the state of Pennsylvania. Vesta is the third largest of the asteroids, with a diameter of 310 miles. Fourth comes Hygiea, which is 275 miles across; fifth Davida (208 miles); sixth Interamnia (207 miles); seventh Europa (187 miles); and eighth Juno (166 miles).

From Astrobloger: Or go back to sleep, it's all good.org
http://astroblogger.blogspot.com/2011/04/will-c2010-x1-elenin-comet-of-doom.html

Eleinin will not cause earthquakes, as I’ve written before, even at closest approach Elenin has less than a billionth of the tidal force of the Moon. It will do nothing. Passing through Elenin’s tail will do nothing, its tail will be doing a very good approximation of a vacuum (and its not even clear its tail will reach Earth). We’ve been through cometary tails before of bigger and brighter comets (eg Halley), and nothing has happened.

How big is comet Elenin, then. Lots of people are claiming it is “big” for example “..when i look at the size of the orbit that this thing is huge, heavy…”. Well, orbital radius has nothing to do with the size of a comet, lots of long period comets are quite small. In the case of Elenin, it’s around 3-4 km in size, a bit smaller than Halley (6x 16 Km). We have a reasonable idea of its size from its brightness. Roughly speaking, at a given distance from the sun, the bigger an object is, the brighter its is. Of course, this also depends on how dark it is as well. Comets mess things up a bit as they are brighter than you expect from their size alone, as they are surrounded by a coma of gas and dust reflecting the light of the Sun. Now, comet Elenin is currently roughly magnitude 14, if it were the size of say, the asteroid Vesta, with a diameter of 530 Km, it would be at least magnitude 7 at its current distance. So Elenin has to be fairly small.

 

[Deleted member 8431]

Now 1 year and nine days after.

So did anything happen yet anywhere?

Anybody has new information?