Dam failures, floods, landslides

Puma

The Living Force
Amazonas: landslide affects 80 meters of road in Utcubamba

Cracking of the road left different population centers in the Jamalca district cut off

This January 21, 2022, in the Amazon region, residents reported the damage to a section of the Naranjitos highway, as a result of a landslide, which would have affected an average of 80 meters of the road.

“The Utcubamba Provincial Platform reports a landslide on the Naranjitos highway. Personnel from the Risk and Disaster Management Sub-Management are in the area carrying out the damage assessment,” the local government specified.

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Puma

The Living Force
A huge crack causes a landslide in the Tuapse district, Krasnodar, Russia on Monday, January 24, 2022.

In the Tuapse district of the Krasnodar Territory, not far from Olginka, on the night of January 24, a landslide fell, along with part of the "Forest Fairy Tale" camp. Empty houses and outbuildings were damaged. Luckily, there were no casualties.

A campsite employee woke up to a terrible noise on the night of January 23-24. He says that he was even afraid to look outside to find out what was going on. Huge cracks ran through the entire territory of the base. Some are so wide that a car can easily drive through them.

The landslide area was 8 thousand square meters. The sunken land is the property of the Krasnodar Territory, and the houses located on it are seized for the debts of the owner. Currently, the territory is fenced, access to the campsite is limited.


Se parte la tierra: Enorme grieta deslizó un camping hacia el mar negro en Rusia
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Donegal, Ireland

Brazil

Portugal
#Petrópolis -RJ: Check BEFORE and AFTER images of the storm that hit the city of Petrópolis-RJ on 02/16. Follow the wire 👇Source: Cenad

FEBRUARY 23, 2022
One person was found dead in a submerged car and 10 others were reportedly missing on Wednesday after heavy rain caused flash flooding in eastern Australia and set off a string of emergency warnings up and down the Pacific coast.

The body of the drowned 60-year-old was found early Wednesday in the state of Queensland, premier Annastacia Palaszczuk told parliament, describing the incident as a "tragedy".

Almost half a meter (1.5 feet) of rain has fallen on some parts of her state in the last 24 hours, causing multiple road closures and transport chaos.

Emergency services received more than a hundred calls for help and swift water rescue crews have been despatched to assist dozens of stranded residents.

Emergency services have received more than a hundred calls for help and swift water rescue crews have been despatched to rescue dozens of stranded residents.

"This has the potential to be a significant rainfall event for south-east Queensland," Palaszczuk said.

A freight train overturned near the town of Gympie, although the driver was said to have minor injuries.

Local media quoted Sunshine Coast Police District Superintendent Craig Hawkins as saying 10 people were also missing.

Fifteen Queensland dams are at capacity and more rain is expected in the coming days.

"Locally intense rainfall is possible and since many catchments are now saturated there is an increased risk of dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding over the coming days," said Palaszczuk.

Police warned motorists to avoid driving through flooded roads and to stay at home.

"Flash flooding is occurring on roads and bridges - Re-consider your need to travel today," police told residents.

Heavy rain has also pelted the state of New South Wales, where parts of Sydney were briefly submerged Tuesday.

After several years of drought and climate-worsened bushfires, Australia's east is wrapping up an extraordinarily wet antipodean summer, thanks to a La Nina weather pattern.

La Nina increases the chances of tropical cyclones off Australia's Pacific coast and brings above-average rainfall, according to the country's Bureau of Meteorology.

 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Biblical downpours in Australia.




National cabinet documents obtained by Rex Patrick reveal increased risk of extreme weather events
Tropical cyclones and flooding are set to pummel Australia over summer, national cabinet documents reveal.

The Bureau of Meteorology briefed the meeting of premiers, chief ministers and the prime minister on 5 November about the high-risk weather facing the nation until April.

National cabinet documents are usually kept secret, but South Australian senator Rex Patrick obtained these under freedom-of-information laws.

Last week Patrick, the Labor leader, Anthony Albanese, and One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts all launched attacks on the prime minister’s department for its secrecy. There is a broader legal question about whether national cabinet is entitled to the cabinet-in-confidence protection, with critics saying that merely calling it a cabinet does not actually make it one

Emergency Management Australia’s director general, Joe Buffone, presented the 2021-22 High Risk Weather Season briefing.

The PowerPoint presentation shows there are increased chances of widespread flooding, coastal flooding and erosion, tropical cyclones and marine heatwaves, compared with average summers and early autumns.

There is a lower chance of drought and dust.

The overall risk of severe storms is on par with other years, while parts of Queensland and NSW have an increased risk of bushfire, and there is a higher chance of heatwaves than usual.

Warm waters mean slightly above average tropical cyclone numbers – the average is 11 per season.

La Niña means the weather is likely to be cooler, wetter and stormier. Areas that had above-average rainfall during spring, and therefore more grass, could lead to a heightened grassfire risk, while parts of the east coast will have a lower risk – because the 2019-20 fires reduced fuel loads.

The bureau’s presentation was prepared with publicly available information.

Emergency Management Australia’s director general, Joe Buffone, presented the 2021-22 High Risk Weather Season briefing.

The PowerPoint presentation shows there are increased chances of widespread flooding, coastal flooding and erosion, tropical cyclones and marine heatwaves, compared with average summers and early autumns.

There is a lower chance of drought and dust.

The overall risk of severe storms is on par with other years, while parts of Queensland and NSW have an increased risk of bushfire, and there is a higher chance of heatwaves than usual.

Warm waters mean slightly above average tropical cyclone numbers – the average is 11 per season.

La Niña means the weather is likely to be cooler, wetter and stormier. Areas that had above-average rainfall during spring, and therefore more grass, could lead to a heightened grassfire risk, while parts of the east coast will have a lower risk – because the 2019-20 fires reduced fuel loads.

The bureau’s presentation was prepared with publicly available information.


Patrick said the prime minister, Scott Morrison, should have released the documents when he released a media statement about the national cabinet meeting. That statement focused almost entirely on Covid, with a single line about the briefing.

That line prompted Patrick to make the FOI request to the Department of Home Affairs.

“These documents foreshadow risks to the Australian public over the coming months,” he said. “They were before national cabinet. Scott Morrison therefore has tried to keep them secret when the Australian public were entitled to know.”

In his FOI request, Patrick pointed to an August ruling in the administrative appeals tribunal that found cabinet confidentiality did not extend to national cabinet. Justice Richard White said national cabinet was not a subcommittee of the federal cabinet, as Morrison has claimed.

That decision could have paved the way for more documents to be released, but the government has rejected that finding as having no force.

“I specifically pointed them to Justice White’s ruling,” Patrick said.

He wrote that because of that ruling: “There is no requirement for the decision maker to consult with the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet (PM&C) about the release of the requested documents.”

Home Affairs released the documents.

Patrick accused Morrison of being “addicted to secrecy”.

“The analysis is derived from publicly funded organisations,” he said. “It is about risks to the Australian public.”

Guardian Australia has contacted the prime minister’s office for a response.
REGRETTABLE: Strong #lluvias and dangerous #inundaciones in the north of #Malasia 🇲🇾 Report at least 12,000 people evacuated and State of Emergency due to flooding of the Sungai River #Malaysia #Flooding Track @Arab_Storms
 

Oxajil

Ambassador
Ambassador
FOTCM Member
Floods destroy homes in Australia 🇦🇺 March 2022 Brisbane, Queensland & New South Wales
I read here:

Frustration swelled among many flood-hit residents in Australia's east over slow relief and recovery efforts, as Sydney braced for more heavy downpours in the next two days that may trigger flash flooding and hamper current clean-up plans.

Thousands were forced to flee their homes after torrential rains since late last month brought widespread destruction in the states of Queensland and New South Wales (NSW), cutting off towns, and sweeping away farms, livestock and roads.

The death toll from the deluge rose to 18 after a man was found dead in a car swept away in floods in Queensland on Sunday.

"These are terrible, terrible floods," Prime Minister Scott Morrison told radio station 2GB on Monday. "These are floods that we have not seen in living memory in anyone's lifetime, and even before that. And so I can understand the great frustration (we are) seeing expressed."

More defence force personnel are being sent to flood-affected areas immediately to lead the recovery, said Morrison, who is trailing in polls ahead of a federal election due by May.

Residents have been taking stock of the damage over the weekend while struggling to clear debris and sludge after water levels receded in some places.

"We've had a week of no communications, no food, no fuel … it has been quite unnerving and emotional," a resident in the far northern NSW town of Murwillumbah, among the worst hit by record floods, told broadcaster ABC.

Power and internet are still down in several towns as emergency crews tried to clear roads to deliver essential supplies.

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet, on a tour of the flood-hit regions, said the recovery could take years with about 2,000 homes deemed uninhabitable.

"The stories that we've heard, the sense of abandonment that many people had in devastating circumstances is heartbreaking, and we need to ensure it doesn't happen again," he said.

The Insurance Council of Australia on Monday estimated the current cost of claims from the floods at A$1.3 billion ($963 million). Insurers have to date received 86,703 claims, up 28% on Friday’s numbers, it said.

Rains have eased over the last two days but the weather bureau on Monday issued a 'severe warning' for parts of NSW, including state capital Sydney, as a second intense low-pressure system forms off the east coast in as many weeks.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecast rains of up to 120 mm (5 inches) in Sydney on Monday and 150 mm Tuesday. Several suburbs have already received more than double March's mean rainfall of around 140 mm.

Australia's east coast summer has been dominated by the La Nina weather pattern, typically associated with increased rainfall, with many rivers already near capacity before the latest drenching.

"This additional rainfall on already saturated soils, catchments and flooded rivers, creeks and streams is giving us an increasing amount of concern," BoM meteorologist Dean Narramore said during a media briefing. "We are likely to see major flooding on numerous rivers."

I hope Australian forum members and their families are safe and doing okay!
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member


When all else fails to grasp reality an Australian news service runs with the climate change agenda.

There has been a lot of discussion in the past fortnight about how rare the rain and flooding from this event was for Qld and NSW.

We already know that a number of records were broken for both rainfall and flooding, including those listed here, here and here. These are individual site records, where rain amounts, or flood heights, are the highest in official records for that location.

We can also use historical records and the observed rainfall and river level data from this event to calculate how unlikely it was for this type of rainfall or flooding to occur statistically.

A common way to represent this event probability is to use the Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), which simply refers to the likelihood a given rain amount or flood height will occur in any given year.

Looking at the 676.8 mm of rain that fell in Brisbane during the 72 hours ending at 9am on February 28, the probability of this three-day rain rate in any given year is between 0.5 and 0.2 percent. Put another way, this much rain is, statistically, only expected to occur once every 200-to-500 years. This is because if there is a 0.5 percent probability of a given rain rate occurring in a given year, you would expect it to occur in one out of every 200 years.

In northern NSW, Doon Doon’s 1040 mm during the 48 hours to 9am on March 1 was a rainfall rate that has a 0.1 to 0.05 percent chance of occurring in any given year. This makes it fall somewhere between a 1-in-1000 year and 1-in-2000 year rainfall rate for this site.

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Image: Annual exceedance probabilities of various rainfall rates and durations at Doon Doon, NSW. The black dot represents the observed rate of 1040mm in 48 hours, which sits between the pink (1-in-1000) and green (1-in-2000) lines. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.


However, it is important to note that these estimated return intervals are not schedules, they are probabilities. A 1-in-1000 year rain rate is not a rain rate that occurs only once every 1000 years. It is, instead, a rain rate that has a 0.1% chance of occurring at that location in any given year.

It is possible to have 1-in-1000 year rain rates in two consecutive years. In some parts of the world, climate change is making extreme rain events more frequent and intense. So, what used to be a 1-in-1000 year event in a past climate may now be more like a 1-in-100 year in the modern climate, for some places.


 

Puma

The Living Force
This Tuesday a landslide was recorded in Peru in the mining area of the province of Pataz due to the intense rains of recent days. In statements to TV Peru, the regional governor of La Libertad, Manuel Llempen, said that the phenomenon left between 60 and 70 houses buried.
President Pedro Castillo announced on his Twitter account that the head of Indeci and the Minister of Defense will travel to the affected area. “We will support the affected families and we will coordinate various actions with the local authorities,” he wrote.

 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member

REGRETTABLE: The tragedy is repeated in #Petropolis #Brasil Yesterday, Sunday in Petrópolis, a mountainous area of #RíodeJaneiro heavy rains left 118 millimeters in less than 1 hour causing floods and dangerous floods Track @tucamaiacaetano

The rainy episode started on Sunday on #LanguedocRoussillon ends.
Accumulation recorded on the episode: 154 mm in Castanet-le-Haut (34) 136 mm in Cabrerolles (34) and Perthus (66) 99 mm in St-Pons-de-Thomières (34) http://meteofrance.com

Parts of Queensland and NSW could be hit with heavy rain later this week, raising the risk of more flooding in already saturated river catchments.
A slow-moving upper-level trough interacting with moisture-laden air will allow rain and storms to develop over eastern Australia from Wednesday or Thursday this week.

This wet weather pattern has the potential to linger through the weekend and into the start of next week, potentially fuelling a multi-day rain event over parts of Queensland and NSW.

It is too early to know exactly how this dynamic weather event will unfold, which means it is not yet possible to predict where and how much rain will fall. The maps below show this uncertainty by comparing forecast rainfall during the next nine days from three different computer models.

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Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the next nine days according to the ECMWF-HRES (left), GFS (centre) and ACCESS-G (right) models.

While there are some similarities between the three maps above, there is notable disagreement in terms of how much rain will fall and where the heaviest rain will land.

Broadly speaking, anywhere from central Queensland down to southeast NSW could be affected by heavy rain between the middle of this week and the middle of next week.

Any rain that falls on or east of the Great Dividing Range in NSW or southeast Queensland will be hitting already saturated soil, increasing the likelihood of flooding.

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Image: Root zone soil moisture on March 20, 2022. The root zone is defined as the top 1 metre of the soil profile. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

More reliable forecasts will become available as the week unfolds. Anyone living between central Queensland and southern NSW should keep an eye on the latest forecasts and warnings for more up-to-date information.

 
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