Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MAY 31

▪︎Geospace quiet despite high speed solar wind >500 km/sec
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 522.7 km/sec (03:57 UTC May 31 )
▪︎density: 7.60 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 3.6 % Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 40 (SN 42 may 30)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
▪︎No extraordinary events in the last 24h. ▪︎AR3023, AR3024 and AR3025 All of these sunspots are stable and quiet. There is only a slight chance of flares today.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1531446372360151040
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 01

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 442.3 km/sec ( 01:46 UTC Jun 01 )
▪︎density: 3.44 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 3.6% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 39 (SN 40 may 31)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
▪︎No extraordinary events in the last 24h. Sol passed "customs control" this morning and said he had nothing to declare...
;-D

https://twitter.com/x/status/1531700426361430022
https://twitter.com/x/status/1531842882222563330
▪︎Future events
FARSIDE SUNSPOTS: Right now, there are sunspots on the farside of the sun so big they are affecting the way the sun vibrates. Helioseismologists have detected their echoes in the latest farside map from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory. Don't be surprised if we see CMEs billowing away from the farside of the sun in the days ahead. SpaceWeather.com
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SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 02

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 345.1 km/sec ( 05:47 UTC Jun 02 )
▪︎density: 2.96 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 3.7% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 59 (SN 40 jun 01)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1 quiet
▪︎ New active regions AR3026 (SN 13 beta magnetic, size 190MH located on the northwest) AR3027 (SN 3 beta magnetic field with energy to produce minor C flares, size 70MH located on the southwest)
hmi200.gif
REVERSED POLARITY SUNSPOT: A new and unusual sunspot emerged in the sun's southern hemisphere yesterday: AR3027. It is a reversed polarity sunspot. In other words, its magnetic field is backwards.
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latest_4096_HMIBC_lab_crop_strip.jpg
According to Hale's Law, Solar Cycle 25 sunspots in the sun's southern hemisphere should have a +/- polarity. That's positive on the left, negative on the right. However, the magnetogram above shows the opposite. Sunspot AR3027 is breaking the law!

Studies show that about 3% of all sunspots violate Hale's Law. In some ways, reversed polarity sunspots act totally normal. For instance, they have the same lfespan and tend to be about the same size as normal sunspots.

In one key way they are different: According to a 1982 survey by Frances Tang of the Big Bear Solar Observatory, reversed polarity sunspots are more than twice as likely to develop complex magnetic fields, in which + and - are mixed together. Reversed polarity sunspots are therefore more likely to explode.

AR3027 could become a source of flares in the days ahead. SpaceWeather.com​
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▪︎ Coronal mass ejections (CME) one on the east far side and and one on southwest with a earth directed component

Both the southwestern filament eruption and the eastern prominence eruption on June 2 are coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The CME on the east side originated in the hemisphere on the other side, but the one on the southwest side seems to be a partial halo CME with a wide spread, and there are likely to be ejecta heading toward the earth.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1532330976843485184
https://twitter.com/x/status/1532356050418077697
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 02

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 321.1 km/sec ( 03:42 UTC Jun 03 )
▪︎density: 5.62 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 4.0% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 59 (SN 59 jun 02)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1 quiet
CME NEAR-MISS POSSIBLE ON JUNE 5TH: A minor coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the sun on June 1st will pass close to Earth on June 5th, according to NOAA analysts. It might come close enough for a glancing blow. SpaceWeather.com
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1532511357534359552
https://twitter.com/x/status/1532667338931195905
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 04

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 292.9 km/sec ( 11:58 UTC Jun 04 )
▪︎density: 7.00 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 4.0% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 52 (SN 59 jun 03)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
▪︎Solar Cycle 25 is exceeding predictions.
SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE: Once again, Solar Cycle 25 is exceeding predictions. Sunspot numbers in May 2022 more than doubled NOAA's forecast, setting the stage for a relatively strong Solar Maximum in early 2025.
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The plot, above, compares actual sunspot numbers to a selection of benchmarks. The blue curve is the "official forecast" issued by NOAA's Solar Cycle Prediction Panel in 2019. Sunspot counts are tracing a curve significantly higher than that.

The green curve is the average of all solar cycles since 1750, and the red curve is a new prediction based on the Termination Event. Current sunspot counts match both. Even if Solar Cycle 25 turns out to be merely average, it will still far exceed previously low expectations. SpaceWeather.com​
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cycle25_prediction_short_strip.jpg

▪︎Solar filament tear-off and eruption on the north hemisphere
https://twitter.com/x/status/1532941805712338944
https://twitter.com/x/status/1532921238921875456
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 05

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 292.0 km/sec ( 03:32 UTC Jun 05 )
▪︎density: 17.91 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 4.7% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 75 (SN 52 jun 04)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=1 quiet
▪︎New sunspots AR3028 (SN 1 alfa magnetic field size 20MH located on the northeast limb) and AR3029 (SN 2 alfa magnetic field, size 10MH located on the southeast limb) have stable magnetic fields that pose no threat for strong solar flares.
hmi200.gif
▪︎Filament eruption on the farside.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1533245590510964736
▪︎Coronal Mass ejections
https://twitter.com/x/status/1533190384582418432
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 05

▪︎Geospace very quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 308.7 km/sec ( 02:52 UTC Jun 06) it has increased its speed in the last hour due to an interplanetary shock associated with a June 2nd CME
▪︎density: 26.30 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 4.7% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 57 (SN 75 jun 05) AR3028 had a short life and now has dissapeared from solar disk
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=3 quiet
▪︎Minor interplanetary shock
https://twitter.com/x/status/1533749134255063040
https://twitter.com/x/status/1533794103267319810
▪︎ Big eruption on the far side of the sun. (southeast)
https://twitter.com/x/status/1533638894738194432
▪︎Filament eruption on the southwest limb
https://twitter.com/x/status/1533608566199922690
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 07

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 321.5 km/sec ( 03:37 UTC Jun 07)
▪︎density: 9.17 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 4.2% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 44 (SN 57 jun 05)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
THE SUN IS TAKING A BREAK: Following months of almost uninterrupted solar activity, the sun is taking a break. Today there are only a handful of small sunspots, and not one of them poses a threat for strong flares. SpaceWeather.com
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▪︎The action is on the far side
https://twitter.com/x/status/1534006841386098688
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 08

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 332.1 km/sec ( 01:47 UTC Jun 08)
▪︎density: 1.97 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 4.5% Elevated
▪︎Sunspot number: 23 (SN 44 jun 07)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
SUNSPOTS IN DECAY: With multiple sunspot groups in rapid decay, the sun is on the verge of producing a spotless day--a remarkable development more than 2 years after the start of Solar Cycle 25. The chance of strong solar flares today is close to zero. SpaceWeather.com
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1534464745876725761

remember this?
cycle25_prediction_short_strip (1).jpg
SOLAR CYCLE 25 UPDATE: Once again, Solar Cycle 25 is exceeding predictions. Sunspot numbers in May 2022 were the highest in almost 8 years, more than doubling NOAA's official forecast
There is no longer any doubt that Solar Cycle 25 is on track to outperform its predecessor, historically weak Solar Cycle 24, which peaked in 2014.

The plot, above, compares current sunspot numbers to a selection of benchmarks. The blue curve is the "official forecast" issued by NOAA's Solar Cycle Prediction Panel in 2019. At the time, panel members anticipated a cycle similar to weak Solar Cycle 24. Zooming in shows how much the sun is overshooting that target.

The green curve is the average of all solar cycles since 1750, and the slightly taller red curve is a new prediction based on the Termination Event. Current sunspot counts match both. Even if Solar Cycle 25 turns out to be merely average, it will still far exceed previously low expectations.
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The opinion of a Spanish physicist Victor M. Sanchez Carrasco physicist and astronomer from the University of Extremadura Spain.
IT IS FALSE THAT SOLAR CYCLE 25 IS BEING MORE ACTIVE THAN NORMAL. In fact, only five cycles out of the last 25 were weaker at this point in the cycle. Therefore, Solar Cycle 25 is being weak (see image).
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1534136741971492864
SOLAR CYCLE 25 IS A WEAK CYCLE (at least so far). At this point of the cycle, only five cycles (cycles 1, 5, 6, 7, and 24) since 1749 had lower values of the (smoothed) sunspot number than Solar Cycle 25 (see figure below). Let's see its evolution in the coming months!
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1523716734552657921
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 09

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 300.5 km/sec ( 05:01UTC Jun 09)
▪︎density: 13.42 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.5% High
▪︎Sunspot number: 0 according to NOAA counts but a new region suddenly emerged yesterday
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
▪︎Looks like a major region behind the NE limb.
A STRANGE NEW SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging in the sun's southern hemisphere--and it's a little strange. For one thing, it is circular. For another, its magnetic field is tilted 90 degrees away from normal sunspots. This one merits watching. SpaceWeather.com
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1534730246250954752
https://twitter.com/x/status/1534681742161981441
From 14:00 to 20:00 UT on June 8th (Japan Standard Time 8th 23: 00-9th 5:00), prominence (filament) on the northwestern edge of the Sun (near the edge) erupted. Extreme UV observations show northwest (upper right) prominence and filament movement. [Courtesy of NASA / SDO and the AIA science
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1534741215303716865
https://twitter.com/x/status/1534625335798530053
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT JUN 10

▪︎Geospace quiet
▪︎Latest Solar wind speed record: 307.9 km/sec ( 01:21 UTC Jun 10)
▪︎density: 7.84 protons/cm3
▪︎Neutron Counts today: 5.9% High
▪︎Sunspot number: 17
▪︎New sunspots are emerging on the northeast limb. They are crackling with C-class solar flares. New region assigned AR3030 (SN 3, Beta magnetic field, size 90MH)
▪︎Geomagnetic conditions now Kp=2 quiet
▪︎Solar wind flowing from a coronal hole on the northeast limb now should reach Earth on June 15-16.
▪︎ AR3030 has produced 5 Solar flares the biggest M1.2 (11:05 UTC June 10)
https://twitter.com/x/status/1535209895305351168
https://twitter.com/x/status/1535215642101555202
 
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